Kontent News

Latest News on the commodity supercycle...and the rise of the precious metals, including uranium. Get ready for peak everything, the repricing of the planet and "black swans" all over the place..

Sunday, August 27, 2006

RGE - Eight Market Spins About Housing by Perma-Bull Spin-Doctors...And the Reality of the Coming Ugliest Housing Bust Ever….

RGE - Eight Market Spins About Housing by Perma-Bull Spin-Doctors...And the Reality of the Coming Ugliest Housing Bust Ever….: "My recent detailed analysis of the high risks of a housing-led recession in 2007 has stirred some serious discussions and debates in the blogosphere and the press. Now that the onslaught of bad news about housing (see the table below) has taken the force of a tsunami that will soon trigger an ugly recession, Goldilocks spin-masters and perma-bulls are on the defensive. Since the housing slump is now undeniable – and rather than a slump it looks like a really ugly bust - the new line of defense of perma-bulls is to argue that the problems of the housing market are only a healthy correction from bubbly excesses, that housing is only in a modest slump that will soon bottom out and recover, and that housing problems will not lead to wider macroeconomic troubles such a broad recession. What a set of Delightfully Delusional Dreams that smash against the ugly reality of recent free falling housing data shown in the table below."

Friday, August 25, 2006

The Big Picture: Is a Housing Crisis Approaching?

The Big Picture: Is a Housing Crisis Approaching?: "Lon Witter puts forth a different and intriguing notion. Witter observes that we don't have a Housing bubble, what the U.S. has is a lending bubble. His evidence is how loose the lending standards have become, and why not? The banks ultimately just flip the loans to the Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association, on the NYSE: FNM), where foreclosures and defaults become the headache of buyers looking for greater risk and return.
Witter claims his careful look at the reasons for the rise in housing give a good indication of the impact housing may have on the stock market. He observes the causes (in chronological order) of the rise and ultimate fall of Housing: 'The collapse of the Internet bubble, which chased hot money out of the stock market; rock-bottom interest rates; 50 years of economic history that suggested housing never goes down, and creative financing.'
More specifically, Witter's expectations are colored by rather disturbing data: "

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Mortgage Backed=Junk

russwinter's Xanga Site: "I am keying on the notion that mortgage backed securities are generally junk issues, not investment grade. On August 16, I discussed this as it pertained to land valuations. The primary thesis to this notion is that the collateral backing this debt is fading. Although the claims of 'only' single digit gains has passed, of late the reported housing price data nationally and in key Bubble locales has been chiming in with generally flat year over year figures. In some locations the number have been actually down ' a bit'. Is this accurate?
I gleaned this WSJ.com article on this question. The key take away suggests that the reality is much worse than merely flat prices:
Moreover, there is some reason to believe the reality is even harsher than the numbers reflect. That is because when home sales begin to slow, sellers offer incentives that the official prices don’t reflect, such as help in paying buyers’ closing or moving costs. Also, as sales volumes in the worst local markets decline, a larger share of the recorded sales tend to come from markets that are still doing relatively well — a factor that can skew official prices upward.

The difference can be significant. Thomas Lawler, an economist and former vice president at Fannie Mae who has studied prices near his home in Loudoun County, Va., estimates that the average price of similar homes in July — accounting for concessions — was down 10% to 15% from a year earlier. The local realtors’ organization, he says, reported only a 2.5% drop. “There are a lot of people who would love to be able to sell their homes at last year’s price,” he says. “But they can’t.” "

Friday, August 18, 2006

New Stupid Mogambo Gold Lease-Rate Theory

Kitco - Contributed Commentaries - Richard Daughty: "You probably know me for the real peach of a guy I really am. And in the few times per day when I am not, there is always a lot of anger about the mismanagement of the economy, replete with screaming and yelling, the sound of approaching sirens and, sometimes, a lot of spent bullet casings scattered on the ground. It merely adds up to the new psychiatric diagnosis, Mogambo Psychonomic Syndrome (MPS), as recently discovered by Dr. George Ure.
So when Total Fed Credit went down by $7.18 billion last week, I really lost it, MPS-wise. I'm running frantically around the living room, dressed in an adult-sized disposable diaper, desperately sucking on this ridiculous pink plastic pacifier that seems, suddenly, to have lost its power to soothe, and I'm snarling and mumbling something that sounds like 'Mmfmn ngnngg gagunm mumm unh!'
My wife, barricading herself behind the couch, is frantically leafing through the Market Laboratory section of Barron's, hoping to find some good news to calm me down. I can barely hear her, as he is quietly muttering to herself 'No, I better not tell him that the Gross National Debt is at a new record, up $8 billion from last week! And if I tell him that Consumer Installment Debt went up $11 billion in the month of June, he'll really lose it!' "

Saturday, August 12, 2006

Did US want Israel to attack Syria?

Did US want Israel to attack Syria? | csmonitor.com: "One Israeli source said [US President George] Bush's interest in spreading the war to Syria was considered 'nuts' by some senior Israeli officials, although Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has generally shared Bush's hard-line strategy against Islamic militants.
After rebuffing Bush's suggestion about attacking Syria, the Israeli government settled on a strategy of mounting a major assault in southern Lebanon aimed at rooting out Hizbullah guerrillas who have been firing Katyusha rockets into northern Israel"

Tuesday, August 08, 2006

THIS is not a bubble

www.miningmx.com | markets Metals euphoria grips Diggers opening: "miningmx.com] -- “THIS is not a bubble, this is the real thing,” declared Diggers and Dealers Mining Forum chairman Brian Hurley in his opening address to the conference which began on August 7 in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia.
Hurley told delegates: “The world, and where the mining industry fits into it, has changed dramatically and fundamentally over the last 50 years. But the change has crept up on us incrementally and we have not noticed.miningmx.com] -- “THIS is not a bubble, this is the real thing,” declared Diggers and Dealers Mining Forum chairman Brian Hurley in his opening address to the conference which began on August 7 in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia.
Hurley told delegates: “The world, and where the mining industry fits into it, has changed dramatically and fundamentally over the last 50 years. But the change has crept up on us incrementally and we have not noticed."

Sunday, August 06, 2006

Clashes over land roil China's poor | csmonitor.com

Clashes over land roil China's poor | csmonitor.com: "BEIJING – Ni Youlian is the 'Last Mohican' in a downtown neighborhood that used to have 4,000 families. He's glad that President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao have taken up the cause of ordinary people in their speeches this week at China's annual National People's Congress. But like so many urban and city folk who lost farmland or houses to China's epic redevelopment, he doesn't see an end to the lucrative collusion between officials and developers that has created so many millionaires - but has also contributed to so much suspicion and instances of instability. China recorded 87,000 riots or protests last year.
Ni's courtyard house, officially 'protected' for years, was bulldozed in 2003 to make way for skyscrapers. It is a familiar story in Beijing - except Ni refused a cheap buy-off. His life savings were in the house. He withstood beatings by thugs that caused most of his neighbors to leave. He now lives in a plywood shack, and expects the bulldozer any day. But he won't leave. "

Friday, August 04, 2006

Disowning Conservative Politics, Evangelical Pastor Rattles Flock - New York Times

Disowning Conservative Politics, Evangelical Pastor Rattles Flock - New York Times: "MAPLEWOOD, Minn. — Like most pastors who lead thriving evangelical megachurches, the Rev. Gregory A. Boyd was asked frequently to give his blessing — and the church’s — to conservative political candidates and causes.
The requests came from church members and visitors alike: Would he please announce a rally against gay marriage during services? Would he introduce a politician from the pulpit? Could members set up a table in the lobby promoting their anti-abortion work? Would the church distribute “voters’ guides” that all but endorsed Republican candidates? And with the country at war, please couldn’t the church hang an American flag in the sanctuary?
After refusing each time, Mr. Boyd finally became fed up, he said. Before the last presidential election, he preached six sermons called “The Cross and the Sword” in which he said the church should steer clear of politics, give up moralizing on sexual issues, stop claiming the United States as a “Christian nation” and stop glorifying American military campaigns. "

Wednesday, August 02, 2006

Call to Enrich Uranium in Australia Stirs Debate - New York Times

Call to Enrich Uranium in Australia Stirs Debate - New York Times: "JAKARTA, Indonesia, Aug. 1 — At a time when the United States wants to reduce the amount of nuclear material washing around the world, one of Washington’s major allies, Australia, is on the verge of expanding its production and export of uranium.
The Australian prime minister, John Howard, one of President Bush’s staunchest allies, says the country should also begin enriching uranium, a move directly counter to Mr. Bush’s call for the uranium enrichment club to be limited to the handful of countries that already have the capacity"