Every Breath You Take - Classy Parody..

Every Breath You Take - Columbia Business School: "Every Breath You Take
Dean Glenn Hubbard
Parody: Follies Student Comedy Revue "

Save the Internet

Save the Internet: "Columbia Professor Timothy Wu gives an historical perspective by comparing AT&T’s net control scheme to the AP’s 19th century news monopoly, calling it “a threat not only to American business and competition but a threat to American democracy.”
The loss of network neutrality will smother the innovative nature of the Internet, which has made it such a powerful economic and social engine. Warns Professor Wu:
“It’s no longer survival of the fittest. It’s no longer who has the best technology. It’s a question of who goes golfing with the CEO of AT&T. And I think that’s not the American way.”
Indeed, which helps explain the left-right cyberstorm over this issue. Listen in. "

Metal prices to be on a high in 2007, says UBS

Printer Friendly Version: "Metal prices to be on a high in 2007, says UBS

April 28 Metal prices will mostly peak next year as bigger-than-expected investments from funds buoy prices, and investors should buy gold, zinc, uranium, platinum and aluminium, UBS AG said in a report on Friday.
The bank raised its forecasts for this year and next for aluminium, alumina, copper, nickel, zinc, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, rhodium and uranium. The 2006 and 2007 forecasts for thermal coal, which is burned in power plants, and benchmark European hot-rolled (HR) coil steel were also increased.
UBS AG raised its price forecasts for this year and next for gold, platinum, zinc and aluminium. Gold will average $750 an ounce in 2007, from a previous forecast of $600, the bank said in a report on Friday. The 2006 estimate was increased to $630 an ounce, from $560. Platinum will average $1,100 an ounce this year, from an earlier forecast of $1,020, and $1,200 in 2007, from $965.
The forecast for this year’s average zinc price increased 65% to $3,638 per metric tonne. The estimate for 2007 increased 95% to $4,079. The aluminium estimate for this year was raised by 15% and for next year by 34%. Forecasts for palladium and silver were also increased.
“Fund flows into commodities as an asset class has been more vigorous than anticipated,” the bank said in the report. “Clearly fund flows have the potential to lift price levels beyond that simply justified by supply, demand fundamentals.”

Putting the US Debt into Perspective

Kitco Commentaries - By Paul Van Eeden: "The current debt to GDP ratio is almost twice as high as the debt to GDP ratio during the final stages of the Vietnam War and compared to Vietnam the US’ current military adventures are skirmishes. If we combine increasing military spending with an increase in domestic deficit spending, higher interest rates and lower government tax receipts, then the debt to GDP ratio could rapidly approach World War II levels.
Anyone who is not alarmed by the increase in US government debt is living with his head in the sand. "

SLV: Summary for ISHARES SILVER TRUST - Yahoo! Finance

The Silver ETF is trading..

SLV: Summary for ISHARES SILVER TRUST - Yahoo! Finance: "ISHARES SILVER TRUST (AMEX:SLV) Delayed quote data"

The Predator State

The Predator State: "In the mixed-economy America I grew up in, there existed a post-capitalist, post-Marxian vision of middle-class identity. It consisted of shared assets and entitlements, of which the bedrock was public education, access to college, good housing, full employment at living wages, Medicare, and Social Security. These programs, publicly provided, financed, or guaranteed, had softened the rough edges of Great Depression capitalism, rewarding the sacrifices that won the Second World War. They also showcased America, demonstrating to those behind the Iron Curtain that regulated capitalism could yield prosperity far beyond the capacities of state planning. (This, and not the arms race, ultimately brought down the Soviet empire.) These middle-class institutions survive in America today, but they are frayed and tattered from constant attack. And the division between those included and those excluded is large and obvious to all.
Today, the signature of modern American capitalism is neither benign competition, nor class struggle, nor an inclusive middle-class utopia. Instead, predation has become the dominant feature—a system wherein the rich have come to feast on decaying systems built for the middle class. The predatory class is not the whole of the wealthy; it may be opposed by many others of similar wealth. But it is the defining feature, the leading force. And its agents are in full control of the government under which we live.
Our rulers deliver favors to their clients. These range from Native American casino operators, to Appalachian coal companies, to Saipan sweatshop operators, to the would-be oil field operators of Iraq. They include the misanthropes who led the campaign to abolish the estate tax; Charles Schwab, who suggested the dividend tax cut of 2003; the “Benedict"

In Fed We Trust - Stock Market Blog on TheDOCument.com

In Fed We Trust - Stock Market Blog on TheDOCument.com: "The Fed continued its semantics game with Chairman Bernanke testifying on Capitol Hill this morning. Bernanke uttered a blatantly non-committal statement, and his lap dogs on Wall Street responded in true Pavlovian fashion. The statement that got everyone drooling is quoted as follows: "

Gold and Oil Stocks: Central Asia Gold Limited

Gold and Oil Stocks: Central Asia Gold Limited: "Central Asia Gold Limited
I WILL BE ATTENDING THE ATLANTA INVESTMENT EXPO FROM THE 4TH TO 6TH OF MAY.
IF WOULD LIKE TO MEET ME AND TO A CHAT ABOUT POTENTIAL INVESTMENT OPPORTUNTIES PLEASE DROP ME AN E-MAIL AT goldandoil@yahoo.com TO ARRANGE A SUITABLE MEETING TIME!

I Look forward to seeing you in Atlanta!

---
Excerpts from a recent subscriber letter...

The problem with LATE stage rallies is the lack of good quality Value plays.
My stock filters are not finding much in the way of Good Story Stocks with fair liquidity.
My favorites at current prices are Northern Continental Resources (NCR.V) and dual listed Central Asia Gold (Australia CGX.AX or Canada CGA.TO).

Stock Profile:

Central Asia Gold Limited
(Australia: CGX or Canada CGA)

Fundamentals:

Central Asia Gold Limited is a gold producer focused in Central Asia. It is listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (since April 1991), and listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange on 21 February 2005. The Company has interests in both the Kyrgyz Republic and Mongolia.
CGX’s interests in the Kyrgyz Republic include three exploration projects and Taldy Bulak, which is the subject of a Bankable Feasibility Study and a planned development project. All project areas are known mineral occurrences that have been explored historically.

Since November 2002, CGX has continued to progress the exploration of its exploration projects (Altyn-Jilga, Akjilga and Turuk) and is currently finalising a bankable feasibility study on Taldy Bulak, a new gold development project.

During 2003/4, CGX acquired a strategic interest in AGR Limited ('AGR') which was sold on 30 June 2004 at a significant profit, providing the comp" (More at Greg's site, I'm warming to his analysis)

Paul Craig Roberts: the World is Uniting Against the Bush Imperium

Paul Craig Roberts: the World is Uniting Against the Bush Imperium: "Is the United States a superpower? I think not. Consider these facts:
The financial position of the US has declined dramatically. The US is heavily indebted, both government and consumers. The US trade deficit both in absolute size and as a percentage of GDP is unprecedented, reaching more than $800 billion in 2005 and accumulating to $4.5 trillion since 1990. With US job growth falling behind population growth and with no growth in consumer real incomes, the US economy is driven by expanding consumer debt. Saving rates are low or negative.
The federal budget is deep in the red, adding to America's dependency on debt. The US cannot even go to war unless foreigners are willing to finance it.
Our biggest bankers are China and Japan, both of whom could cause the US serious financial problems if they wished. A country whose financial affairs are in the hands of foreigners is not a superpower.
The US is heavily dependent on imports for manufactured goods, including advanced technology products. In 2005 US dependency (in dollar amounts) on imported manufactured goods was twice as large as US dependency on imported oil. In the 21st century the US has experienced a rapid increase in dependency on imports of advanced technology products. A country dependent on foreigners for manufactures and advanced technology products is not a superpower.
Because of jobs offshoring and illegal immigration, US consumers create jobs for foreigners, not for Americans. Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs reports document the loss of manufacturing jobs and the inability of the US economy to create jobs in categories other than domestic 'hands on' services. According to a March 2006 report from the Center for Immigration Studies, most of these jobs are going to immigrants: 'Between March 2000 and March 2005 "

Short Squeeze

Kitco Commentaries - Dr. Richard S. Appel: "April 23, 2006 – A series of disparate events have coalesced that have set the stage for generational price spikes in not one, not two, but in three major metals. For those who have steadfastly held their gold and silver positions through the difficult, trying and heart-wrenching past five plus years, it appears that our foresight and suffering will soon be rewarded. Similarly, for those who early recognized the explosive potential of the copper market, they too are participants in what I believe will be viewed as an historic short squeeze.
For new investors to the stock and commodity markets, a speculator who believes that an item will go down in price has the ability to sell it without owning it. This is called shorting a market. If he is correct he will profit by the difference between where he initiated his “short”, and the price when he “covered” or closed out his position. A short squeeze begins when a number of individuals or entities have “shorted” a market in a substantial fashion, and find themselves on the wrong side of the trade. In their haste to purchase the item and exit their trades, they literally fall over one another and markedly drive higher its price.
A good example occurred in the silver market between late1979 and early 1980. Prior to the summer of 1979, Bunker and Herbert Hunt of the Hunt oil family, accumulated an enormous silver position. As I recall, it was largely completed by the summer of 1979, when silver was under about $8 an ounce. Prior to and during this period many commercial interests, traders, and speculators shorted a huge number of silver future contracts as it rose in price. They believed there was sufficient readily available physical silver to offset their positions. If they were correct they would pocket the difference w"

How Central Bankers Fritter Away Their Time

Brainstorms: "Gold has topped $600/oz. for the first time in 25 years. Unfortunately, for real contrarians, it is making front page news. However, financial media commentary remains fairly ignorant on the subject. The preferred explanations for gold’s rise are mostly benign: it’s the Chinese and the Indians (ooh, they just love bangles, it’s part of their culture); it’s the allocation to commodities that has grown so popular (tangible assets are the rage with all the savviest hedge funds-the Chinese need so much more stuff); it’s the difficulty of bringing new mines into production (you know, the tree huggers hate mining so much); it’s the central banks who have decided that selling gold was not such a great idea in the first place and have now shied away from dumping their reserves (just a bunch of stupid bureaucrats, anyway). These “explanations” all have an element of truth. Any reader of our past website articles would have seen it coming.
However, the Wall Street Journal, CNBC and the equivalent will not tell you that gold is rising because there is a surfeit of paper assets. They will not tell you that a rise in the gold price has historically been a harbinger of bear markets in bonds and stocks and hard times for the financial business. The Pavlovian response of the financial media to the crossing of the $600 threshold was as predictable as their inability to comprehend or to portray the significance.
In truth, the price of gold at $600 is no big deal. In 1980 dollars, it is only $300. If prior highs mean anything, a target of $1700 in today’s dollars is what investors should be thinking about. In our view, gold remains cheap, another sign that the financial markets continue to under-price risk. Investors should worry less about whether t"

The Dialetic of Venezuela

VHeadline.com - Goebbels propaganda campaign is the prelude to imminent brutal invasion...: "University of Los Andes (ULA) professor Franz J. T. Lee writes: After having looked at seven fascist diatribal video tapes of the CIA and of the 'opposition' launched internationally against the Bolivarian Revolution and President Chavez, that were reproduced in the evening program of Mario Silva, 'La Hojilla' yesterday, to warn everybody about a possible, imminent, United States military invasion of Venezuela, this time my weekly commentary will really be piquant and bitter.
As a result of colonialism and imperialism what has happened to us over the last five centuries, and in globalization what is really on the order of the day in Latin America, in Venezuela, Percy B. Shelley has described eloquently as follows:
'Rise like Lions after slumber
In unvanquishable number -
Shake your chains to earth like dew
Which in sleep had fallen on you -
Ye are many - they are few.'
Charles Dickens, the famous British author, in his 'Tale of Two Cities' ... portraying Paris, the French Revolution, and describing London, the Industrial Revolution ... teaches us what really is happening in turbulent times, during an epoch of intra-systemic social revolutions. "

CONFESSIONS OF A TRANSITORY GOLD BUG

FSU Editorial: "Confessions of a Transitory Gold Bug" by George Karahalios 04/26/2006: "You must understand that this circumstance doesn’t present itself often; it is a peculiar environment characterized by large amounts of debt, ample liquidity, and grossly overvalued asset classes. It is most easily treated with a tonic of even more liquidity. I have only seen it twice in my lifetime – once in the early 1970’s, when I was too young to appreciate it, and again today. It seems to occur only at times when things are somehow 'wrong' in the world. But I’ll leave that assessment for the economists.
In my heart I know that the wise-guys, and all of their anti-gold rhetoric, will eventually be proven right. I can’t wait for that day to come so that I can rid myself of this useless relic of a metal. It’s living hell being a transitory gold bug"

BOOMING GLOBAL ECONOMY, DOLLAR TROUBLES AND CHINA

Financial Sense Online Market WrapUp with Mike Hartman 04/26/2006: "The agreements won't put an end to the rampant theft of software and other intellectual property in China. But they should help narrow a telling gap: China is the world's second-largest buyer of personal computers but only the 25th-largest buyer of software."

M3b, repos & Fed watching

M3b, repos & Fed watching: "The formula used has over five nines (.9999946 – 1.0 being perfect) correlation to the original data back going back to 1980, and is taken directly from the Federal Reserve’s definition of M3.
There is only one missing element that is apparently no longer available (Eurodollars) and I've applied an adjustment to generate it. Its only about 3% of total M3 so should not have a material effect on the total
The data sources are M2, Institutional Money Market and two weekly reports from the Fed – H.8 and H.4.1.
Not surprisingly, the growth rate has continued up since the last official report in early March
I’ll leave it up to the reader on why M3 was discontinued but wish to point out this quote: 'The last duty of a central banker is to tell the public the truth.' -- Alan Blinder, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, on PBS’s Nightly Business Report in 1994 "

Gold May Rise 10-Fold

Bloomberg.com: Australia & New Zealand: "April 25 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Faber, who told investors to bail out of U.S. stocks a week before the 1987 Black Monday crash and began recommending commodities at the end of 2001, said gold may rise 10-fold in the next 10 years.
``If the Dow Jones goes up three times in the next 10 years, I think gold prices will go up by a minimum 10 times to something like $6,000 an ounce,'' said Faber, 60, who founded Hong Kong-based Marc Faber Ltd. and manages about $200 million.
Faber, author of a newsletter called The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, said gold wasn't expensive when ``you compare its price to the quantity of money that has been printed in the last 10 to 15 years in the U.S. and the world in general.''
Gold for immediate delivery rose to $645.85 an ounce on April 20, its highest in the more than 25 years, as hedge funds and other speculators bought commodities to seek greater returns than from stocks and bonds. Former George Soros partner Jim Rogers forecast April 17 that gold would reach $1,000 an ounce.
The outlook for the precious metal depends on how much money Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke ``will print,'' Faber said in an interview yesterday in Tokyo.
``As you know he has pronounced speeches about asset deflation,'' said Faber, referring to Bernanke. ``He's concerned about real estate and stocks going down, so in the long run for sure he'll print money.''
Pension Funds
Pension and mutual funds are pumping record amounts of cash into commodities as China's booming economy stokes demand for oil and other raw materials, leading to a three-year boom in prices. The amount of money invested in index-linked commodity funds rose last year by as much as $30 billion to $80 billion, according to "

How Big Is Bush's Big Government? - Mises Institute

How Big Is Bush's Big Government? - Mises Institute: "We, in the United States, live under the rule of the largest civil government, measured in budgetary terms, in history. Federal spending alone in fiscal year 2006 is expected to be over $2.7 trillion, which means the federal government spends $7.4 billion a day or $5.1 million in every minute of the year. This is 815 times the level of federal spending in 1930.
Things have been getting worse recently. In the first five years of the Bush regime, federal spending increased 45%. Readers of Mises.org may remember that they were warned about Bush's fiscal irresponsibility before he took office. For comparison's sake, during the eight Clinton years nominal federal spending increased 32%, and under Bush I federal spending increased 23% in four years. In the 2000 election, Bush II promised to shovel money into all sorts of programs — and he's kept that promise.
Since 1930, in addition to the spending increases, the feds also drove prices up more than 1,100%, according to the Consumer Price Index. Also, we should suspect that these inflation numbers are low since government officials have an incentive to underestimate inflation.
If we adjust the spending numbers to account for this inflation, real federal spending is 65 times larger than it was in 1930. The US population has more than doubled since 1930 and if we take the population changes into account, real per capita spending is 27 times higher than in 1930.
In estimating real federal spending I'm not dismissing the effects of inflation, nor am I absolving the state of its complicity in driving prices up. These calculations are simply an attempt to give us some idea of the growth in government and the attendant loss of our liberties over the last several decades.
This $2.7 trillion in federal spending breaks down to $9,000 per c"

Global warming behind record 2005 storms: experts - Yahoo! News

Global warming behind record 2005 storms: experts - Yahoo! News: "'The hurricanes we are seeing are indeed a direct result of climate change and it's no longer something we'll see in the future, it's happening now,' said Greg Holland, a division director at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.
Holland told a packed hall at the American Meteorological Society's 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology that the wind and warmer water conditions that fuel storms that form in the Caribbean are 'increasingly due to greenhouse gases. There seems to be no other conclusion you can logically draw.'
His conclusion will be debated throughout the week-long conference, as other researchers present opposing papers that say changing wind and temperature conditions in the tropics are due to natural events, not the accumulation of carbon dioxide emissions clouding the Earth.
Many of the experts gathered in the coastal city of Monterey, California, are federal employees. The Bush administration contends global warming is an unproven theory.
While many of the conference's 500 scientists seem to agree that a warming trend in the tropics is causing more and stronger hurricanes than usual, not all agree that global warming is to blame.
Some, like William Gray, a veteran hurricane researcher at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, Colorado, attributed the warming to natural cycles. Gray said he believes salinity buildups and movements with ocean currents cause warming and cooling cycles. He predicted the Caribbean water will continue to warm for another five to 10 years, then start cooling.
MORE WARMING TO COME
Whatever the cause, computer projections indicate the warming to date -- about one degree Fahrenheit (half a degree Celsius) in tropical water -- is 'the "

America's borrower-industrial complex - MarketWatch

America's borrower-industrial complex - MarketWatch: "NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A fast-rising new book by a provocative conservative shows how the debt explosion is hurting our country
Almost overnight, it has hurtled to the top of the best seller lists. Its title is 'American Theocracy,' its author is Kevin Phillips, a former top Republican strategist and leading conservative intellectual, about whom Time magazine once wrote, 'in the shoot-from-the-hip world of Washington prognostication, Kevin Phillips stands out like Nostradamus.'
Now his controversial argument, which clearly has struck a chord, is that America is deeply endangered by a combination of three forces:
One: The nation's global overreach, demonstrated by the so-far-unsuccessful invasion of Iraq.
Two: The surge of militant, fundamentalist, evangelical, right-wing religion in the U.S.
Three: America's ballooning debt, which has mortgaged the country's economic health to financial speculation.
The first two points are fascinating enough, but our column focuses on the economy, so what concerns us most is point three: those expanding debts. They may be worse than we imagine, much worse.
To make that point, Phillips unfurls a mind-boggling quantity of statistics.
Phillips argues that the U.S. economy is being kept afloat by a splurge in consumption that is being financed by awesome debt. Americans carry an average of eight credit cards per household and pay interest charges of 19% to 25% on their balances. Between 1990 and 2003 the number of people holding credit cards jumped by 75% -- from 82 million to 144 million -- but the amount actually charged exploded by 350%, up from $338 billion to $1.5 trillion.
Yes, it is really true that Americans spend more than th"

"Comex Silver: the Irreversible Damage Last Week" by Paul Skarp 04/24/2006

Financial Sense "Comex Silver: the Irreversible Damage Last Week" by Paul Skarp 04/24/2006: "I’m going to go out on a limb here, I’m looking for silver prices to hit the uppermost Fibonacci target during the next period of bullish seasonals. This period starts in September and runs through early-middle February. Personally, I’m looking for silver prices to be between $25-$27 an ounce during February of 2007. Considering that summer is just around the corner this forecast also adheres to the old Comex wisdom of exit around Memorial Day come back after Labor Day."

Hostile Trends

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: April 24, 2006 - Hostile Trends: "Historically, the worst outcomes for stocks have typically emerged when valuations were rich and there were well-defined upward pressures on interest rates and other yields. The tendency for bad outcomes to be born of such conditions is so established that our investment discipline virtually demands that we hedge when they are present.
At the same time, the elements just mentioned virtually assure that a defensive position will look ridiculous for some amount of time. Specifically, rich valuations imply that the market will typically have done well in recent months or years, and that it will probably still be establishing marginal new highs (until, of course, it doesn't). Likewise, upward pressures on interest rates and other yields typically imply concurrent economic strength and strong consumer confidence. So at the most compelling times to hedge risk, the market will be achieving fresh highs and the economy will appear strong. Hedging under those conditions is often accompanied by foregone short-term gains that are made irrelevant by subsequent market weakness.
Conversely, the best outcomes for stocks have typically been born of depressed valuations and well-defined downward pressures on interest rates and other yields. This combination typically emerges after stocks have done terribly in recent months or years, and are still probably establishing fresh lows, while the economy appears unusually weak and consumer confidence is plunging. Aggressive investment under those conditions is often accompanied by disappointing short-term losses that are made irrelevant by subsequent market strength.
The upshot is that the points where defensive or aggressive investment positions are most effective are also typically the points where one will, at least briefly, look like an idiot for taking t"

My Virtual Life

My Virtual Life: "TALENT BANK
After all my travels around Second Life, it's becoming apparent that virtual worlds, most of all this one, tap into something very powerful: the talent and hard work of everyone inside. Residents spend a quarter of the time they're logged in, a total of nearly 23,000 hours a day, creating things that become part of the world, available to everyone else. It would take a paid 4,100-person software team to do all that, says Linden Lab. Assuming those programmers make about $100,000 a year, that would be $410 million worth of free work over a year. Think of it: The company charges customers anywhere from $6 to thousands of dollars a month for the privilege of doing most of the work. And make no mistake, this would be real work were it not so fun. In Star Wars Galaxies, some players take on the role of running a pharmaceutical business in which they manage factory schedules, devise ad campaigns, and hire other players to find raw materials -- all imaginary, of course.

All this has some companies mulling a wild idea: Why not use gaming's psychology, incentive systems, and social appeal to get real jobs done better and faster? 'People are willing to do tedious, complex tasks within games,' notes Nick Yee, a Stanford University graduate student in communications who has extensively studied online games. 'What if we could tap into that brainpower?'

In other words, your next cubicle could well be inside a virtual world. That's the mission of a secretive Palo Alto (Calif.) startup, Seriosity, backed by venture firm Alloy Ventures Inc. Seriosity is exploring whether routine real-world responsibilities might be assigned to a custom online game. Workers having fun, after all, likely will be more productive. 'We want to use the pow"

This Is 1969, Not 1979

Kitco - Commentaries Dave Skarica: "You think you see the bubble? Heck, the last silver bubble was in 1980, when she whacked $48.88. Those were 1980 Fednote dollars, worth double what 2006 Fednote dollars are. So you ain’t seen no stinking $48.88 bubble in silver until she hits $97. We are a long, long way from there. Try to plot a straight line between $1.29 and $48 silver; it cannot be done, except over the long haul between 1966 and 1980. Ditto gold; $35 to $800-something. Took twenty years, plenty of turbulence intervening.
Sure there is froth at these stopping points. You get about 6 hours’ notice to reload. That will be it. If Morgan is right and we’re in for a summer-long doldrums, so much the better. Time to see the lawyers and accountants and get out of the Delphi pension plan and in to something real. Be fearless. The right mining juniors will do you well. But be afraid as well. Those paper dollars you hold won’t even get the kindling in the woodstove alight.
This is not the “bubble” of 1980. The by-w6rd here is “fungible.” Metals and commodities are fungible. Silver is silver is silver, the world over, no matter where it’s made. Dollars are not fungible, especially if they say, “Made In USA.”. What you are hearing is the deafening racket of copper, zinc, lead, uranium, concrete, rebar and oil, clamouring for a free-market price so they can catch up with the price of a loaf of bread, or even the cost of real estate in Wallace. The market cries out for Justice. And, replies Silver, Justice will be ours. Selah."

The housing bubble has popped

MSN Money - The housing bubble has popped: "Concerned about his real-estate investment apparently going sour, he can't afford to reduce the price to what homes now sell for in his neighborhood -- which is about $100,000 less than he's asking. Says the salesman: 'If I got in a jam, I would have to drop the price, but I am not at that point.' His game plan: Rent the house, so as not to 'lose my shirt.'

That's the mentality often seen in manic markets -- the belief that you can't possibly lose, and, when the price goes against you, you don't have to deal with it, because it will come back. This fellow (and millions more like him) is going to find out that his belief is a mistaken one, in the same way that folks did when the stock bubble burst. Start investing with $100.
Explore our
new ETF center.



Dwelling takes a little shelling
The story went on to note that many formerly hot markets in California, Arizona, Washington, D.C., and Florida are now 'languishing without buyers or even prospects. Many once-booming markets are seeing double-digit declines in sales.' The magnitude of the drop in Florida home prices (once the frothiest market in the country) is striking. Single-family home sales declined 20% in February, year-over-year. Similarly, California sales dropped 15%. Some of the hottest towns in those states were off twice as much. "

Oil fight in Nigeria reaches turning point -- Newsday.com

Oil fight in Nigeria reaches turning point -- Newsday.com: "LAGOS, Nigeria - A militant group that has been attacking Nigeria's oil pipelines and helping to drive up world oil prices added a new tactic last week by detonating a car bomb in a major oil city to publicize its standing threat to shut down the country's entire crude output.

The bomb, which exploded in a Mercedes-Benz parked at a military facility in Port Harcourt, killed two civilians and injured six, said Army spokesman Maj. Sagir Musa. It was the first such attack in an urban area and the first in the eastern Delta section of the country in five months. "

The April 2006 Hindenburg Omen Has Now Been Confirmed

Safe Haven | The April 2006 Hindenburg Omen Has Now Been Confirmed: "Further, there was not one major decline (over 10 percent) that did not first have a Hindenburg Omen present to give an early warning. We were warned every time there was a crash, or multi-month plunge, of the higher-than-normal probability of one coming, through the presence of a Hindenburg Omen.
Well, once again we have one on the clock, right now, April 2005. Since April 7th, when we observed the first one, there have been three official confirming Omens, so we now sit with four. There actually have been two more that met the old definition that many analysts followed, but just missed under our stricter requirements that we established to improve the correlation with declines (see issue 305 in our archives for that definition). Of the five criteria, these last two missed only because New Highs were more than twice New Lows. Sometimes that situation leads to false positives, so we eliminate them. But, we still have four, so this Hindenburg Omen is now confirmed."

Zinc to stay up: Zinifex

Zinc to stay up: Zinifex | Business | The Australian: "ZINC prices are to stay at record highs, with any response to the shortage in supply likely to be slow, Zinifex chief executive Greig Gailey says.
He said yesterday that the solution for zinc prices was more raw material but it took between three and five years to develop a new zinc mine.
'We have a very large deposit in Queensland called Dugald River, which is about 50 million tonnes,' he told the ABC's Inside Business.
'We're currently in the phase of doing a pre-feasibility study but even if we fast-track that project through ... it would not be in the market before 2010 or 2011. There will certainly be a response to price but we believe it will be somewhat slow in coming.'
The acute shortage in zinc was sourced in the early 2000s, Mr Gailey said.
'Nobody made any money, companies like Pasminco failed and as a result of that, nobody did any exploration, nobody was interested in developing zinc mines and what we're seeing today is the fruits of that.'
Mr Gailey said Zinifex had cash in the bank but had not yet decided whether it would return the capital to shareholders or use it for investment.
Acquisitions were of interest but resources companies were 'pretty well priced'.
Zinc closed $US250 ($336) higher at $US3325 on Friday. "

Bin Laden says West waging war on Islam

Top News Article | Reuters.co.uk: "DUBAI (Reuters) - Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden said the West's shunning of the Hamas-led Palestinian government showed it was waging a 'Crusader-Zionist war' on Muslims, according to an audiotape attributed to him and aired on Sunday.
People in the West share responsibility for their countries' 'war against Islam', said the speaker, who sounded like bin Laden, on the tape broadcast on Al Jazeera television.
The Saudi-born militant said the Darfur crisis in western Sudan and Western efforts to isolate the Palestinian government since Hamas won January elections were part of this campaign.
'Their rejection of Hamas affirms that it is a Crusader-Zionist war against Muslims,' bin Laden said.
In the brief excerpts of the tape that Al Jazeera aired, he did not repeat his assertion in an audiotape issued in January that al Qaeda was preparing attacks in the United States but was open to a conditional truce with Americans.
But his remarks about the complicity of Westerners in the policies of their governments appeared to be an argument that they were fair game for revenge attacks by militants.
'The war is a responsibility shared between the people and the governments. The war goes on and the people are renewing their allegiance to its rulers and masters,' bin Laden said.
'They send their sons to armies to fight us and they continue their financial and moral support while our countries are burnt and our houses are bombed and our people are killed.'
The Qaeda leader, on the run since the U.S. campaign to oust Afghanistan's Taliban government in 2001 after the September 11 attacks, said Western leaders had ignored his truce offers.
'They do not want a truce unless it is from our side only ."

Doors Close for Real Estate Speculators

Doors Close for Real Estate Speculators: "Investors who sought quick profits buying and selling real estate in the Washington region are in full retreat, dampening demand for homes, most notably for condos.
What is becoming apparent, market watchers say, is how big a part speculators played in the region's real estate boom of the past few years. Not just condominiums, but also townhouses and single-family houses, were snapped up by investors using no-money-down financing and non-traditional loans. They helped send prices soaring at unprecedented rates. And now many are trying to sell, or rent at a loss. Some may eventually dump properties at low prices to get rid of them. That could weigh down values for everyone.
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Lockboxes cover a bench outside the Halstead condo complex in Fairfax County. The boxes hold keys to units for agents to show prospective buyers or renters. There recently were 49 lockboxes for the 200-unit building. (By Preston Keres -- The Washington Post)

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Sales of new condos fell 43 percent in the first quarter of the year, compared with the first quarter of 2005, according to one report, and there are almost four times as many existing condos for sale than last year.
'We think the s"

Real estate boom or doom?

PrudentBear.com - The One-Stop Shop for the Bear Case: "Excerpted from September 2005 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast

THE ECONOMY & DEFLATION
Back in March 2000, EWFF noted that the “fate of the world” hinged on the manic rise in 50 U.S. stocks, many of which were unprofitable. Five years and one recession later, the global economy is hanging by a similarly thin thread. The difference now is that the weight of the world is being held up by the public’s affection for real estate and the debt needed to acquire it. According to Irwin Stelzer of The Weekly Standard, data compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics “shows that housing and related industries now account for 4.8 million jobs, some 60% more than the once-mighty auto industry.” While the U.S. auto industry lost 60,000 jobs in the past 4 years, the housing industry created almost 600,000 jobs in construction and financial services. Newspapers are a good example of how whole industries are clinging to real estate’s coat tails. As anticipated in past issues, the newspaper industry is slowly falling prey to the Internet and gathering deflationary forces, but its saving grace is a flood of real estate ads that have poured in over the last year. The Wall Street Journal reports that real estate ad revenue increases of 16% to 45% are “masking what has been a years-long decline in classified-ad revenue at newspapers.”
But the home-buying binge comes at a steep cost to U.S. households. The household surplus/deficit chart from Paul Kasriel of Northern Trust Co. shows the financial impact to homeowners. From the 1950s to 1999, one year before the start of the bear market, households maintained a surplus, whereby disposable personal income exceeded total expenditures on consumer goods an"

Oil closes above $75 a barrel

Inside Business - 23/04/2006: Oil closes above $75 a barrel: "JAYNE EDWARDS: It was a week of contrasts on global markets, as climbing oil prices helped to temper optimism about an end to interest rate rises. Oil closed the week in New York above $75 a barrel, with global political tensions and worries of a looming petrol supply crunch fuelling the market. But share markets rallied on the release of minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting, showing an end to interest rate rises may be in sight. In company results, Google jumped on another great earnings report, while ebay, Dell and Intel lost ground. And it was a rare good week for General Motors, which leapt by 10 per cent after reporting reduced losses, while over at Ford the company posted a blowout in its losses and its shares slumped by 8 per cent. On Friday, Wall Street was mixed. The Dow inched up to a 6-year high. The broader S&P500 was steady, and the Nasdaq slid by 20. Over the week, the US gained 1.7 per cent. London's FTSE rose by exactly the same margin, Frankfurt's DAX jumped by 3 per cent, Tokyo's Nikkei added 1 per cent and our local market also rallied. For more, here's Marcus Padley from Tolhurst.
MARCUS PADLEY, TOLHURST: We're in the middle of three short trading weeks on the trot at the moment. With the holidays, you would think things would quieten down, but they haven't. The stock market's had a good week, the resources sector's had a great week. The stock market's now up 22 per cent this financial year and a quarter of that performance has been due to one stock on its own, the biggest stock in the market, BHP, which is now up 65 per cent this financial year. Back to this week, all the metal prices were up. The gold price hit a 25-year high and the oil price hit an all-time high. And the resources sector got a boost from the Chin"

Special Report: Australia soars on uranium bonanza

Kontent Review: "But investors are eyeing pure uranium stocks. They include smaller miners and explorers such as Marathon Resources, Summit Resources, Toro Energy, Paladin Resources and Alliance Resources, whose share prices have sizzled in recent weeks. Toro, which listed on March 23, has risen 504% to about $1.30. Paladin has soared 509% over the past year to about $5.40.
Pure miners have tended to outdo explorers, because the real money is in extracting and selling the ore. But that hasn’t stopped dozens of minnows lining up to entice investors: Giralia is floating two in coming months: U308 and Gladiator Resources. Investors are queuing up; anything with uranium attached to it tends to be heavily oversubscribed.
Uranium’s return to global favour has vindicated a few doughty Australian pioneers, mostly hard-bitten geologists, who for decades have stayed the course, dismissed the militant green hysteria about global irradiation, and are now set to become very rich indeed.
Johnson is one of the hardiest of Australia’s uranium barons. The son of an iron-foundry worker, he is a tough, 58-year-old with degrees in geology and computer science. He invented the Maptek three-dimensional mine-planning software used by mining companies around the world. He is a founding director of Curnamona Energy, which has exploration rights over 4,300 square kilometres of the best uranium “paleo-valley sands” of South Australia. "

Bourne Research : Insight : April 18, 2006

Bourne Research : Insight : April 18, 2006: "SCOTTSDALE, Ariz., April 18, 2006 – Silver nanoparticles are emerging as one of the fastest growing product categories in the Nanotechnology industry, according to Bourne Research (http://www.bourneresearch.com). The market research firm reports that the ability to produce particles of silver at the nanoscale is allowing companies to leverage its known antimicrobial properties in ways never before imagined as an effective means of infection control.
“Silver nanoparticles may very well become the next “it” product, much like antibacterial soaps took the consumer sector by storm a decade ago,” says Marlene Bourne, Principal Analyst with Bourne Research. “Of course, some are concerned that being too clean is perpetuating the rise of allergies and autoimmune diseases, but there are many applications where its use makes perfect sense.”
Bourne Research reports that the medical sector was one of the first on board where end-uses have already migrated from burn dressings to surgical instruments and hand sanitizers. In addition, a recent study by a leading supplier of textiles to hospitals showed a dramatic reduction of infectious microbes in curtains embedded with silver nanoparticles. Sportswear manufacturers are also embracing its use to prevent odor in clothing. In the home, consumers can already find washing machines, refrigerators, HVAC filters, brooms and even food containers that employ silver nanoparticles to kill bacteria and limit mold growth – and this is just the beginning.
More details about the growing use of silver nanoparticles can be found in The Bourne Report, a unique series of market research reports from Bourne Research. The Bourne Report offers the most insightful market analysis available on emerging technologies, with a fo"

The Great Silver Heist

The Great Silver Heist: "Silver is as important a strategic commodity as oil. The need for a supply of silver in times of war is so essential, that a shortage of the metal could pose dire and direct consequences to the continued well being of our country. With the evolution of technology, silver has become so intrinsically important, that a lack of it will adversely affect America's national security. Meanwhile, as a result of the collusion between industrial users, central bankers, the Commodity Futures Trade Commission, (CFTC), the Chicago Board of Trade, (CBOT), and government regulators, spanning the past fifty years, inventories have all but disappeared.
How and why have our silver reserves been so radically depleted? The major causal factor for the growing scarcity of silver in the United States is an organization called the Silver Users Association, (SUA). This group was founded in 1947 for the sole purpose of controlling the price of silver, and has since manned a small army of lobbyists. These lobbyists represent some of the biggest corporations in the country. As the industrial uses for silver are quite diverse, so are the types of companies that engage the services of the SUA. It is their job to lobby politicians and persuade them to suppress, depress, repress, oppress, or do what ever it takes to maintain a grip on the price of silver. The SUA co-ordinates campaign contributions between association members and complicit politicians in return for quasi-legal legislation designed to keep the price down. It does not matter to them whether the means of suppression are legal or illegal, so long as the price does not rise.
The chief purpose of the Silver Users Association, when it was formed 54 years ago, was to lobby and convince the US Government to dispose of its immense stockpile of silver, as much as 4 billion ounces o"

Lawyer: Rice Allegedly Leaked Defense Info

Lawyer: Rice Allegedly Leaked Defense Info: "ALEXANDRIA, Va. -- Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice leaked national defense information to a pro-Israel lobbyist in the same manner that landed a lower-level Pentagon official a 12-year prison sentence, the lobbyist's lawyer said Friday.
Prosecutors disputed the claim.
The allegations against Rice came as a federal judge granted a defense request to issue subpoenas sought by the defense for Rice and three other government officials in the trial of Steven Rosen and Keith Weissman. The two are former lobbyists with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee who are charged with receiving and disclosing national defense information.
Defense lawyers are asking a judge to dismiss the charges because, among other things, they believe it seeks to criminalize the type of backchannel exchanges between government officials, lobbyists and the press that are part and parcel of how Washington works.
During Friday's hearing, U.S. District Judge T.S. Ellis III said he is considering dismissing the government's entire case because the law used to prosecute Rosen and Weissman may be unconstitutionally vague and broad and infringe on freedom of speech.
Rosen's lawyer, Abbe Lowell, said the testimony of Rice and others is needed to show that some of the top officials in U.S. government approved of disclosing sensitive information to the defendants and that the leaks may have been authorized.
Prosecutors opposed the effort to depose Rice and the other officials. Assistant U.S. Attorney Kevin DiGregory also disputed Lowell's claim, saying, 'She never gave national defense information to Mr. Rosen.'
The issuance of subpoenas does not automatically require Rice or anybody else to testify or give a deposition. A recipient can seek to quash the subpoena.
Call"

Oxiana Says Gold May Beat Record

=DJ UPDATE: Australia's Oxiana Says Gold May Beat Record: "MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--Gold may burst through its all-time high of US$850 an ounce as investors look for a safe haven from inflation and geopolitical tension, Australian gold and copper miner Oxiana Ltd. (OXR.AU) said Wednesday.

Copper and zinc prices, both hitting records this week, are still relatively cheap and will also likely continue to surge skyward, Oxiana Managing Director Owen Hegarty told reporters on a conference call.

The comments came as Oxiana shares surged 7.7% to close at a record A$3.07, spurred by all-time high copper and zinc prices and gold, which hit a new 25-year high of US$624.80 an ounce in Asia earlier Wednesday.

'I don't think there's any doubt gold will keep moving in that very strong, buoyant direction,' Hegarty said. 'The reason people buy it, for an inflation hedge, for a political hedge, or (a hedge against falls in) the U.S. currency,' are all occurring, Hegarty said. 'I wouldn't be surprised if it smashed through its previous record of early US$800s,' an ounce, he said.

Hegarty said copper and zinc prices, already at records, aren't as expensive as they have been when inflation is taken into account.

'There's no reason why it (copper) can't keep going upwards and the same with zinc,' Hegarty said. 'Given the supply and demand fundamentals at the moment, when you think of the amount of work that actually goes into producing a pound of zinc and a pound of copper, they're probably still fairly cheap.'

Oxiana's share gains came even though it will likely produce less gold from its Sepon mine in Laos than previously expected.

The mine is now forecast to produce 170,000 ounces thi"

Bush: government research developed iPod - Engadget

Bush: government research developed iPod - Engadget: "Apple has long boasted of its culture of innovation, and how this led to such products as the original Mac and the iPod. However, it turns out that, at least in the case of the iPod, Apple had a hidden ally: the US government. During a speech at Tuskegee University, President (and iPod user) George W. Bush told his audience, 'the government funded research in microdrive storage, electrochemistry and signal compression. They did so for one reason: It turned out that those were the key ingredients for the development of the iPod.' While we have to gratefully acknowledge the efforts of government agencies such as DARPA in some of the fields mentioned by the President, we also feel obligated to point out the accomplishments of private companies in the US and abroad, including IBM, Hitachi and Toshiba -- not to mention the Fraunhofer Institute, which developed the original MP3 codec, and codeveloped (with Sony, AT&T and others) the AAC format used by Apple in the iPod. Still, we have to bow down before his Steveness; we knew he was well-connected, but until now we had no idea of his level of influence in the area of government research. Hey, Steve, while you're at it, why not get the government to resolve the display problems plaguing the next-gen video iPod? We're sure they'll get their best minds on it and fix it in no time."

Australia's Oxiana gold output reaches record levels, copper output strong - Forbes.com

Australia's Oxiana gold output reaches record levels, copper output strong - Forbes.com: "SYDNEY (AFX) - Oxiana Ltd said its output of gold reached record levels in the March quarter, helped again by record production at the Golden Grove mine in Western Australia.

The miner said production at its Sepon project in Laos slipped due to lower throughput and grades arising from development work in order to access new ore.

Total gold output for the quarter reached 62,683 ounces from the 59,406 ounces produced during the December quarter.

Gold produced at Sepon totalled 42,091 ounces while gold produced from Golden Grove was 20,592 ounces.

Total copper output for the March quarter slipped to 17,008 metric tons from 17,859 tons in the previous quarter.

Silver output reached 973,665 ounces in the quarter with the majority of 929,018 ounces produced at Golden Grove.

Oxiana said it remains on track to produce 60,000 tons of copper in 2006 from Sepon.

Sepon's 2006 gold production is expected to be around 170,000 ounces, with slightly higher output expected in the June and December quarters but lower production is expected in the September quarter from wet season impacts.

Meanwhile, the Golden Grove operations reached record throughput in the March quarter due to improvements in grinding reducing other bottlenecks.

Oxiana's Golden Grove produced a record 39,455 tons of zinc during the quarter while copper output was 2,952 tons. "

More muscle, with eye on China - Nation/Politics - The Washington Times, America's Newspaper

More muscle, with eye on China - Nation/Politics - The Washington Times, America's Newspaper: "The Pentagon is engaged in an extensive buildup of military forces in Asia as part of a covert strategy to strengthen and position U.S. and allied forces to deter -- or defeat -- China.
The buildup includes changes in deployments of aircraft-carrier battle groups, the conversion of nuclear-missile submarines and the regular dispatch of bombers to areas close to targets in China, according to senior Bush administration officials and a three-month investigation by The Washington Times.
Other less-visible activities that are part of what is being called a 'hedge' strategy include large-scale military maneuvers, increased military alliances and training with Asian allies, the transfer of special-operations commando forces to Asia and new requirements for military personnel to learn Chinese.
President Bush approved elements of the first phase of the strategy within the past several months. The key architect is Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld. The State Department's point man on the strategy is Deputy Secretary of State Robert B. Zoellick, who has led three rounds of strategic talks with China in the past several months.
Mr. Bush will express U.S. concerns about China's hidden military buildup during his meeting today with Chinese President Hu Jintao, but will not discuss the hedge strategy, administration officials said.
Officials said the objective of the Asian buildup is to dissuade China from becoming a hostile power and to have the military capability to swiftly defeat the communist nation in a conflict using military forces that are forward-deployed in Asia or are available to be moved on short notice from Alaska, Hawaii, California and elsewhere.
Bush administration national sec"

A Crisis Almost Without Equal

A Crisis Almost Without Equal: "Friedman, who still supports the Iraq war, opens by declaring that given a choice between a nuclear Iran and an attack on that country engineered by the White House, he would choose the former. That’s how little he trusts the diplomatic and military chops of Bush, Rumsfeld, Condi and Co. He cites “the level of incompetence that the Bush team has displayed in Iraq, and its refusal to acknowledge any mistakes or remove those who made them.”

But then he goes on: “I look at the Bush national security officials much the way I look at drunken drivers. I just want to take away their foreign policy driver's licenses for the next three years. Sorry, boys and girls, you have to stay home now -- or take a taxi. ... You will not be driving alone. Not with my car.”

The problem -- the crisis -- is that Bush and Co. likely WILL be driving the “car” for 33 more months.

Friedman knows this: “If ours were a parliamentary democracy, the entire Bush team would be out of office by now, and deservedly so. ... But ours is not a parliamentary system, and while some may feel as if this administration's over, it isn't. So what to do? We can't just take a foreign policy timeout.”"

London copper up 5 pct, equivalent to $3/lb

Business | Reuters.co.za: "LONDON (Reuters) - Copper futures rose 5 percent to a record $6,625 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on Friday, equivalent to over $3/lb as funds resumed their buying spree, dealers said.
By 1148 GMT, the benchmark three-month futures contract was quoted at $6,620/6,640, bouncing back from $6,296 on Thursday.
'We are still telling people to buy the dips -- it's the only the strategy that works in this environment,' a dealer said.LONDON (Reuters) - Copper futures rose 5 percent to a record $6,625 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on Friday, equivalent to over $3/lb as funds resumed their buying spree, dealers said.
By 1148 GMT, the benchmark three-month futures contract was quoted at $6,620/6,640, bouncing back from $6,296 on Thursday.
'We are still telling people to buy the dips -- it's the only the strategy that works in this environment,' a dealer said."

RGJ.com: USA Capital bankruptcy filing leaves investors stunned

RGJ.com: USA Capital bankruptcy filing leaves investors stunned: "LAS VEGAS -- Investors say they are stunned, angry and frustrated at Las Vegas-based USA Capital, a short-term mortgage lender that filed for bankruptcy protection last week.
The lender, with $950 million in assets, filed for bankruptcy court protection on April 13.
The company, with an office in Reno and Incline Village, raised investment funds to make short-term mortgage loans secured by real estate development and commercial properties. Investors were attracted by interest rates of 12 percent to 14 percent on their investments and by the relative security of having real estate for collateral.
It's the latest in a series of private lenders who have failed in Las Vegas, including Harley Harmon Mortgage, Interstate Mortgage Group and Global Express Capital.
'Unbelievable,' investor Rich Maiorana, 55, who invested $50,000 in a USA Capital fund.
The bankruptcy filing 'just makes them look to be terribly dishonest,' Maiorana said.
Phyllis Resler, a widow and great-grandmother, works part time for a church to supplement her Social Security benefits. She has $56,000 invested with USA Capital.
'Help,' she said, laughing nervously. 'I can't earn and replace what I have at age 69. That will take a lifetime.'
Robert Ulm, a retired airline pilot living in Georgia, said he invested $200,000 with USA Capital and feels betrayed.
'It's illegal. It's a fraud. It's a cheat. It's a scam. That's what I think,' Ulm said.
Ulm invested money in six loans, called trust deeds, secured by warehouses in Albuquerque, N.M., and other types of property in Sacramento and Reno.
Ulm was surprised, because the company seemed to have a good reputation when Ulm learned about it"

ANALYSIS: Rumsfeld ideas slammed

ANALYSIS: Rumsfeld ideas slammed: "WASHINGTON -- The unprecedented criticism of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and his management of the Iraq War by retired generals who have served there goes deeper than the conflict itself.
Criticism of the planning and execution of the war points to Rumsfeld's broader -- and controversial -- transformation of the military into a lighter, faster, smaller force theoretically more adept to fight modern wars.
Critics say Rumsfeld's vision, which relies on expensive weapons, is out of step with the kind of insurgency warfare U.S. forces face in Iraq and are likely to encounter again in the ongoing war against terrorists."

IMF chief warns high oil prices set to stay - Forbes.com

IMF chief warns high oil prices set to stay - Forbes.com: "WASHINGTON (AFX) - IMF chief Rodrigo Rato warned that record oil prices are here to stay and appealed for collective action to rectify widening imbalances in the world economy.

The International Monetary Fund managing director said weekend meetings of global financial leaders here must also address the reform of the IMF to make the Western-dominated organization more representative of emerging economies, especially in Asia.

'The impact of higher oil (prices) on the global economy has so far been moderate, but it remains a serious risk,' Rato told a news conference a day before a Group of Seven meeting, ahead of the weekend gathering of the IMF and the World Bank.

'It is likely that higher prices are going to last and that, among other things, (this) has to show all of us that we have to adjust to a situation that is going to last,' the IMF leader said.

Crude oil futures hit new peaks Thursday, above 74 usd a barrel in London and 72 usd in New York, owing to concerns about a gasoline supply crunch in the US and tensions over Iran's nuclear ambitions.

According to the latest IMF forecasts released this week, the world economy is on course to expand by a robust 4.9 pct this year.

But Rato warned of 'important risks' to that outlook arising from the record-high oil prices, global economic imbalances, rising interest rates and a potential bird flu pandemic.

He said that, for now, there were 'clear signs of a welcome rebalancing of world growth' as sluggish economies in Europe and Japan pick up their pace to leave less of a burden on the fast-expanding US.

But ahead of the weekend meetings, the IMF has stepped up warnings that the world economy is dangerously out of kilter as "

Japan's appetite for uranium is growing

Asia Times Online :: Japan News and Japanese Business and Economy: "Japan's appetite for uranium is growing
By Hisane Masaki

TOKYO - Energy-hungry Japan is revving up its drive to secure uranium abroad as global demand for nuclear power rises amid stubbornly high oil and gas prices and growing environmental concerns.

Major Japanese trading and energy firms are looking at multibillion yen investments in uranium mine projects, with electronics conglomerate Toshiba in February purchasing Westinghouse, the US power plant arm of British Nuclear Fuels, for about US$5.4 billion.

Meanwhile, the government, which attaches great importance to nuclear power as a key to ensuring national energy security, is



also considering assistance to help domestic firms in the increasingly intensifying global competition for fuel at nuclear power plants. Among those measures are financial aid and more investment-insurance coverage by government-affiliated organizations. Japan is already the world's third-largest nuclear power nation in terms of the number of civilian nuclear plants in operation.

Uranium prices are climbing as energy-hungry China and India are stepping up construction of nuclear power plants to fuel their high-flying economies, while some industrialized countries, including the US and Britain, are moving to build new nuclear power plants after many years of suspension following nuclear accidents at Three Mile Island in the US in 1979 and Chernobyl in Ukraine in 1986.

Nuclear power generation has begun to come under the spotlight again due to growing environmental concerns as well as the high prices for oil and gas. Nuclear power plants generate much less carbon dioxide, the primary greenhouse gas widely blamed for global warming, than coal-fired facilities. Renewable energy sources such as wind and "

"A Lot More Inflation Coming Down The Pipe" by Ceri Sherpherd 04/19/2006

FSU Contributor:  "A Lot More Inflation Coming Down The Pipe" by Ceri Sherpherd 04/19/2006: "Go back 2 years and the GAAP PE ratio on the S&P 500 was close to 40 now today it is 18.85 this is the only PE ratio that matters the Pro Forma numbers are simply fantasy and are totally irrelevant. In this short time period the market has moved from suicidal overvaluation to simply historically expensive. The major part of the increased S&P 500 earnings has been nothing more than inflation and accounting gimmicks; real sustainable growth has only played a minor part. Very soon the Stock market will have historical PE ratios that will make it a good long term buy, not quite yet, but at the rate of Dollar destruction we are witnessing at present this time will be far closer than most people expect!
If you believe that they are going for Option 3 above then you must also be a raging commodities bull, this is because commodities are priced in Dollars. If the unit of measure is constantly devalued more units of the devalued currency are demanded by the market for real tangible physical commodities. The supply of nearly all commodities is somewhat inelastic. The supply of printed and electronic Dollars is unlimited and virtually instantaneous.
It is fashionable for the last 10 years or so for the media to talk about the great NASDAQ bull or the Housing Boom or even Peak Oil apparently showing itself by $70+ Crude. The real cause of these booms is the Federal Reserve Bank. Too much cheap money chasing too few stocks houses and now Oil.
They asked J P Morgan in 1913 at a Senate Select Committee Hearing what is Gold. He replied that “Gold is money, and nothing else is”. In real money terms in true GOLD STANDARD terms we have at present a severe Bear market in Stocks just look at the graph above and Real Estate and a weak Bull market"

What we are saying vs. What we are doing

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: "What we are saying vs. What we are doing

Here is a recap of what Greenspan said:

Perhaps the clearest evidence of the perceived benefits that derivatives have provided is their continued spectacular growth.
The use of a growing array of derivatives and the related application of more-sophisticated approaches to measuring and managing risk are key factors underpinning the greater resilience of our largest financial institutions.
The development of credit derivatives has contributed to the stability of the banking system by allowing banks, especially the largest, systemically important banks, to measure and manage their credit risks more effectively.
Here is what we are doing:

Creating a ‘NewBank’ to provide liquidity in emergencies.
Simulating financial meltdowns caused by an explosion in hedge funds and credit derivatives.
I have three questions:

If the explosion in credit derivatives is making us safer why do we need to create a new bank to deal with liquidity issues?
If the explosion in credit derivatives is making us safer why are we simulating financial meltdowns based on those very same derivatives blowing up?
How long will it take before Greenspan is proven spectacularly wrong once again? "

Financial War Games

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: "Before getting to 'War Games' let's recap some past wisdom from the man formerly behind the curtain.

1996 - Greenspan warns about irrational exuberance in the stock market
2000 - Greenspan embraces the 'productivity miracle' and says there is no stock market bubble.
2001 - Greenspan said bubbles can only be detected in hindsight
2004 - Greenspan says there is no housing bubble
2005 - Greenspan says there is no national housing bubble even though he admits we have 'froth'

It's Different This Time

Here are some select comments from just released FOMC minutes from May 16, 2000 meeting shortly after the Nasdaq blowoff top:

Chairman Greenspan:
My own judgment, and what I plan to recommend to the Committee, is that we have an opportunity now to move the funds rate up 50 basis points, remain asymmetric, and effectively adjust our longer-term posture to a better position than the one we are in at the moment. The reason I am not concerned about moving the rate up quickly at this stage is that I think the evidence indicates that productivity, indeed perhaps underlying GDP, is still accelerating. I recognize that the staff’s estimate of productivity growth for the first [quarter] is 1-½ percent. I don’t believe that estimate for a fraction of a second. Indeed, using the available data on income and profits, which essentially reflect the unit cost structure of nonfinancial corporations, the productivity growth number that falls out of that system according to staff estimates is a 6 percent annual rate.

I think we are in a quite different environment than we have seen in the past. In such an environment real long-term interest rates have to rise, and indeed they have risen very significantly in the last several weeks. Real long-term BBB rat"

Sell US Stocks

Kontent Review: "What do I think of yesterday's stock-market bacchanalia? I think it was and is an absolutely wonderful gift for people who have been dragging their feet in raising cash! It's amazing, if not frightening, that any action of the nation's bumbling central bank can evoke such enthusiasm.
_____
Introduction
On March 20th, I issued an unequivocal sell recommendation on stocks. If you wish, you may categorize the missive at hand as an unequivocal reaffirmation of the March 20th recommendation.
After the close yesterday, I posted the following on the GRA website:
'Can +195 points on the DJIA be a bearish development? I think it can, and I will do my best overnight to explain why. I was hoping to use the time to catch up on some other research material, but something like today, occurring when it did and for the stated reasons, simply cannot pass without comment. The piece will be short, and I will try to have it out before the open tomorrow.' Here goes."

on Greeting Hu

TomDispatch - Tomgram: Michael Klare on Greeting Hu with a 21-Gun "Salute": "On Tuesday April 18, Chinese President Hu Jintao landed in the United States and, after a tour of a Boeing plant, made his official way, with all due pomp and ceremony, to the expectable 'state banquet' in Washington… no, not at the White House but at the Washington State home of Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates. In fact, the Chinese leader came to Seattle, Washington, ready to toss money at Microsoft goodies and Boeing jets in an atmosphere as celebratory as money can make things.
Thursday, Hu will arrive in the 'other' Washington in a less celebratory mood -- at a time when Chinese relations with the Bush administration are in a state of heightening tension and likely to get worse. He will arrive for a… Well, what is it?
The Chinese insist that Hu is coming on an official 'state visit' and point to the traditional presidential greeting on the White House lawn and the 21-gun salute for a state leader as evidence of that. The White House, which is offering neither a state dinner, nor a cabinet meeting for the Chinese president to attend but a simple working lunch, begs to differ. What's happening is only a visit-type visit, nothing more. (''It's an official visit, it's a visit, is the way I would describe it,' said White House spokesman Scott McClellan. We have ‘one visit, different interpretations.'') At the micro-level of protocol, this catches much about our East Asian moment. "

U.S. Government Won't Reveal About

Bloomberg.com: Bloomberg Columnists: "April 17 See even Bloomberg acknowledges that the US CPI figures are worthless(Bloomberg) -- There's a great scene in the movie ``A Few Good Men'' in which a Navy lawyer is grilling a U.S. Marine officer played by Jack Nicholson.
``I want the truth,'' the lawyer insists. ``You can't handle the truth!'' Nicholson's character barks. I hear this dialogue in my head whenever there's a question on whether the government's Consumer Price Index, or CPI, is an honest gauge of living costs.
I'm convinced there's a much more insidious story that needs to be told as the bond and precious-metals markets gyrate daily over perceived inflation threats.
If the full impact of consumer-price increases were accounted for, investors would have a lot more to worry about, and you should prepare for a threat that's much greater than Labor Department reports indicate.
The government has a vested interest in keeping official inflation measures low. Everything from Social Security cost-of- living increases to marginal tax rates is adjusted annually to this all-important gauge.
The total cost of what we are paying for big-ticket items is much higher than what's reflected in the CPI.
Take housing costs, for example. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, the U.S. Labor Department's agency that calculates the price index, estimates housing costs by figuring ``owners' equivalent rent,'' or a proxy of what homeowners would pay in average rent increases.
The CPI Lie
As the largest component of the CPI at 23 percent, housing represents a huge portion of the overall cost of living. Yet the Labor Department's indirect measure vastly underestimates actual housing costs since it doesn't reflect home-purchase prices, financing, maintenance or property taxes. Done any roofing, remode"

Snowy Hydro - Corporate - Initial Public Offer Information

Snowy Hydro - Corporate - Initial Public Offer Information: "Each of the three shareholders of Snowy Hydro Limited - the Commonwealth of Australia and the States of New South Wales and Victoria - have now announced that they will seek to have Snowy Hydro Limited listed on the Australian Stock Exchange and they will then sell their shareholding in Snowy Hydro Limited by an Initial Public Offer. It is expected that the Prospectus relating to the sale of shares in Snowy Hydro Limited will be issued in May 2006. "

| Dimming the Sun | The Producer's Story | PBS

NOVA | Dimming the Sun | The Producer's Story | PBS: "Like most films that we at DOX Productions make for NOVA, 'Dimming the Sun' is a coproduction between a U.K. broadcaster and WGBH, Boston. So we are well used to creating two slightly different versions, one for the British audience and one for the American. Often the difference is simply one of language, those little Britishisms and Americanisms that cause so much innocent amusement (you say 'tomato', we say 'genetically modified organism'). But 'Dimming the Sun' posed an interesting and unusual challenge: how to deal with the fact that British and American viewers are, so to speak, in a different place when it comes to global warming."

Let's bomb Iran - Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, Iran

Bore Me - Let's bomb Iran - Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, Iran: "Let's bomb Iran
Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, Iran "

recession has always followed a peak in US

Best of Lance L. Lewis: "But at some point, as the dollar continues to weaken and the bond market continues to come under pressure, there’s going to be an inflection point, where people suddenly realize that it’s not 1995. At that point, it should begin to dawn on people that the market is the one pushing up long-term interest rates, not the Fed. As Fed tries to pause, and the dollar weakens even more. Foreigners will continue to back away from US bonds. Rising long-term interest rates will put even more pressure on the US housing bubble-driven economy, which is going to put even more pressure on the dollar. Put a summation sign under all that, and you get a nasty recession and much lower stock prices. Recall (as we’ve noted before) that a recession has always followed a peak in US residential real estate investment since WWII. "

U.S. knew Shiite militias were a threat

KR Washington Bureau | 04/17/2006 | U.S. knew Shiite militias were a threat but took no action largely because they were focused on Sunni insurgency: "BAGHDAD, Iraq - U.S. officials were warned for more than two years that Shiite Muslim militias were infiltrating Iraq's security forces and taking control of neighborhoods, but they failed to take action to counteract it, Iraqi and American officials said.
Now American officials call the militias the primary security concern in Iraq, blaming them for more civilian deaths than the Sunni Muslim-based insurgency and demanding that the Iraqi government move quickly to stem their influence.
U.S. officials concede that they didn't act, in part because they were focused on fighting the Sunni-dominated insurgency and on recruiting and training Iraqi security forces. "

Oxiana expects more gold from Sepon - Breaking News - Business - Breaking News

Oxiana expects more gold from Sepon - Breaking News - Business - Breaking News: "Miner Oxiana Ltd says it expects production from its Sepon Gold mine for the year to be about 170,000 ounces.
Releasing its March quarter production report, Oxiana said it had produced 42,091 ounces of gold from Sepon in the first quarter but it expected mixed results over the rest of the year.
'Gold production is expected to remain slightly above this level for quarters two and four with slightly lower production in quarter three due to potential wet season impacts, bringing expected production for the year to around 170,000 ounces,' the company said"

Dahr Jamail | The Ongoing War on Truth in Iraq

Dahr Jamail | The Ongoing War on Truth in Iraq: "The people of England have been led in Mesopotamia into a trap from which it will be hard to escape with dignity and honor. They have been tricked into it by a steady withholding of information. The Baghdad communiqués are belated, insincere, incomplete. Things have been far worse than we have been told, our administration more bloody and inefficient than the public knows ... We are today not far from a disaster.
-- T.E. Lawrence (a.k.a. Lawrence of Arabia), The Sunday Times, August 1920
On Monday, April 17, my sources in Baghdad reported fierce fighting in the al-Adhamiya neighborhood of the capital city, as well as fighting in the al-Dora neighborhood. One source, who lives in the predominantly Sunni area of Adhamiya, had been telling me the situation was disintegrating for days leading up to this. There had been clashes every day for four days leading up to yesterday's huge clash there, with sporadic fighting between Sunni resistance fighters and members of the two largest Shia militias. The armed wing of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, the Badr Organization, and Muqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army have been launching ongoing attacks against fighters in the neighborhood. There is a shorter version of this description.
Civil war.
Yet we don't hear it described as such in the corporate media, nor from the Cheney administration. Their propaganda insists that Iraq is not yet in a civil war.
But in Adhamiya, every night now for several weeks roads have been closed with tires, trunks of date palm trees and other objects to prevent 'kidnappers and Shia death squads' from entering the area, according to one source, whom I'm keeping anonymous for security reasons.
His description of the fierce fighting in his neighborhood is quite different from"

Global: Oil and Bonds Roach

Morgan Stanley: "In the macro realm, bad things usually come in pairs. The confluence of yet another surge in oil prices and a long-overdue back-up in bond yields has piqued my interest in that regard. Crude oil prices are back near $70 and bond yields are at important thresholds -- closing in on 2% in Japan, 4% in Europe, and slicing through 5% in the US. My concerns stem less from a partial analysis of each development and more from the potential interplay between them. The combined impacts of these two factors raise the odds that a tipping point for an unbalanced global economy could well be close at hand.
I continue to believe that the American consumer is the weak link in the global daisy chain. The combination of rising long-term interest rates and higher oil prices puts an unmistakable squeeze on discretionary income -- the last thing overly-indebted, saving-short US consumers need. The higher gasoline prices arising from the recent back-up in crude oil markets unleashes a classic negative income effect on the consumer that, by Dick Berner’s reckoning, could knock about $60 billion, or 0.6%, off disposable personal income this summer (see his dispatch in today’s Forum, “Risks for the Consumer”). At the same time, higher US bond yields could unleash a negative wealth effect -- taking a toll on a housing market that is already moving lower and also acting to constrain mortgage refinancing activity and household sector equity extraction. For a US consumer who remains chronically short of labor income but who drew support from more than $600 billion of annualized equity extraction in late 2005, that could be an especially tough blow.
In this increasingly interconnected global economy, America’s problems quickly become the world’s problems. Other consumers will also feel these imp"

Exchange to Change Margins for Silver and Copper Futures Contracts - SilverSeek.com

Exchange to Change Margins for Silver and Copper Futures Contracts - SilverSeek.com: "NEW YORK, N.Y., April 18, 2006 — The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. today announced margin changes for its silver and copper futures contracts, beginning at the close of business on Wednesday.

Margins for the silver futures contract will increase to $3,750 from $3,250 for clearing and non-clearing members and to $5,063 from $4,388 for customers.

Margins for the copper futures contract will increase to $3,750 from $3,500 for clearing and non-clearing members and to $5,063 from $4,725 for customers. "

Dubai and its wild, gold trading history

An underworld paved with gold
By Bertil Lintner

It seemed like a routine announcement. Last August 30, the London Bullion Market Association issued a statement revoking the status of an associate member, ARY of Dubai, one of the wealthiest of the United Arab Emirates.

But in fact, it was the first overt outcome of a long investigation into money-laundering, drug-trafficking and possible terrorism-financing. Since the August announcement, ARY has had several of its British bank accounts closed and the revenue authorities are investigating its finances. This could be the end of the road for one of the hitherto best-respected - and most well-connected - jewelers and gold dealers in the Persian Gulf region, Abdul Razzak Yacoub Ghandi, whose initials form the name of the group of companies he owns.

Apart from controlling a large share of Dubai's lucrative gold wholesale business, he runs a satellite TV company, ARY Digital, which he claims transmits into 107 countries, manages a gold refinery called ARY Aurum Plus, and has interests in local real-estate development. He also used to manage the ill-gotten gains of Abdul Qadeer Khan, the 'father' of Pakistan's nuclear-weapons program.

When Khan fell from grace in February 2004, he and his relatives tried to recover the funds they had deposited with ARY. But it was all in vain. The millions of dollars that Khan had made from selling nuclear-bomb designs to countries such as North Korea and Libya had already been transferred to secret bank accounts, to which only ARY has access, investigators assert.

So far, however, the only conviction in the region against him or any of his associates occurred whe"

Told You So - by Charley Reese

Told You So - by Charley Reese: "If you want to go back even further, to 2001, you'll find that in August 2001, I warned that Americans could expect a terrorist attack inside the United States. Again, no official sources. I just used the one commodity most missing in Washington, D.C. – common sense.
You don't inject yourself into somebody else's war without getting shot at sooner or later. As it happened, we got shot sooner, just a few weeks after I wrote that August column.
Nor do you need a degree from an Ivy League university to understand that people don't like to be occupied by a foreign army. All foreign armies that have occupied other people's countries have used the excuse that they came to liberate the people. Nobody believes that anymore.
Now President Bush has let the cat out of the bag. After all this jabber about listening to the officers on the ground, he said the other day at a press conference that 'future presidents' will likely make the decision to bring the troops home from Iraq. So he's talking at least four years, if not eight. If they're really going to stay until Iraq develops into a Western-style democracy, try 30 years.
But they won't stay anywhere near that long. The American people's patience with foreign wars – provided the casualties aren't too heavy and there is no cost to those at home – is about five years. The president has about two years left before he will have to brand whatever corrupt authoritarian regime that emerges in Iraq as 'a great victory.' A man who lies us into war will not hesitate to lie us out of one."

San Francisco Home Listings Preliminary

Links of Random Interest: San Francisco Home Listings Preliminary: "San Francisco Home Listings Preliminary
I’ve just compiled a rough draft data set of all Bay Area home listings. The data set isn’t refined enough to release quite yet, but I thought I’d share some images taken from Google Earth after I imported it.

As of April 13, 2006, there were over 27,000 homes listed for sale in the Bay Area, with 20,106 listed as 'Active Listings' and 7,529 as 'Pending Sales'. In the following images, the pending sales are the red dots, and the active listings are white. Each dot represents one property (house, condo, land) offered for sale in the Bay Area.

The first image illustrates the impact Bay Area investors have had on the regional market. Notice the tendrils of speculation that spread out along the highways into the Central Valley, up to Sacramento, down to Monterey, and up into the foothills of the Sierras. "

Future of Computing: Web focus : Nature

Future of Computing: Web focus : Nature: "NEWS FEATURE
2020 computing: Champing at the bits Free access
Philip Ball
Nature 440, 398–401 (23 February 2006) doi:10.1038/440398a
Full Text | PDF



NEWS FEATURE
2020 computing: Milestones in scientific computing Free access
Jacqueline Ruttimann
Nature 440, 399–405 (23 February 2006) doi:10.1038/440399a
Full Text | PDF



NEWS FEATURE
2020 computing: Everything, everywhere Free access
Declan Butler
Nature 440, 402–405 (23 February 2006) doi:10.1038/440402a
Full Text | PDF



COMMENTARY
2020 computing: Exceeding human limits Free access
Stephen H. Muggleton
Nature 440, 409–410 (23 February 2006) doi:10.1038/440409a
Full Text | PDF



COMMENTARY
2020 computing: The creativity machine Free access
Vernor Vinge
Nature 440, 411–412 (23 February 2006) doi:10.1038/440411a
Full Text | PDF



COMMENTARY
2020 computing: Science in an exponential world Free access
Alexander Szalay and Jim Gray
Nature 440, 413–414 (23 February 2006) doi:10.1038/440413a
Full Text | PDF



COMMENTARY
2020 computing: Can computers help explain biology? Free access
Roger Brent and Jehoshua Bruck
Nature 440, 416–417 (23 February 2006) doi:10.1038/440416a
Full Text | PDF



COMMENTARY
2020 computing: A two-way street to science's future Free access
Ian Foster
Nature 440, 419 (23 February 2006) doi:10.1038/440419a"

Gold and Oil Stocks: SILVER VS GOLD STOCKS AND LONG TERM TARGETS

Gold and Oil Stocks: SILVER VS GOLD STOCKS AND LONG TERM TARGETS: "Silver had a low of $1.50 in 1973 and a high of $40 in 1980. Projecting forwards, Silver has a price target of $675 (40+(40*((40-1.5)/1.5)*0.618)+1). YIKES BATMAN! That’s a 6,600% increase from current prices.

Gold had a low of $35 (1971) and a high of $850 (1980). Projecting forward, Gold has a price target of $13,000 (850+(850*((850-35)/35)*0.618)+1). That’s a 1,400% increase from current prices."

Future of Computing: Web focus : Nature

Future of Computing: Web focus : Nature: "In the last two decades advances in computing technology, from processing speed to network capacity and the internet, have revolutionized the way scientists work. From sequencing genomes to monitoring the Earth's climate, many recent scientific advances would not have been possible without a parallel increase in computing power - and with revolutionary technologies such as the quantum computer edging towards reality, what will the relationship between computing and science bring us over the next 15 years? "

Short-Term Headwinds For Global Equities

BCA Research - Independent Investment Research Since 1949: "Global stock markets have advanced this year on the back of growing optimism about the economic outlook. However, the flip-side of the improving growth outlook is rising bond yields and a re-kindling of the energy bull market, which historically have been headwinds for equities. This year, ten-year bond yields are up more than 50 bps for the G7 countries and are at their highest level in nearly two years, although, encouragingly, inflation expectations remain in check. Meanwhile, crude oil prices are flirting with record highs, in part reflecting investor concerns about U.S.-Iranian tensions and a possible disruption to global oil supplies. While we remain upbeat about stocks on a 6 to 9 month basis, some near-term turbulence is likely if interest rates and oil prices keep climbing. "

Copper Futures Rise to Record in Shanghai

Bloomberg.com: Commodities: "April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Copper futures in Shanghai rose to a record for a third session after China's President Hu Jintao said the nation's economic growth accelerated to 10.2 percent in the first quarter, boosting prospects for metals consumption.
The figure, given by Hu in Beijing yesterday, is higher than every forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 25 economists and compares with 9.9 percent growth in the fourth quarter. The Bloomberg survey had a median estimate of 9.6 percent.
``Hu's comments that China's economy accelerated is a surprise and very encouraging,'' said Shen Haihua, vice president with Maike Futures Co. ``Strong cash prices indicate tight supply. I don't see any slowdown in copper consumption.''
Copper prices in Shanghai have increased 82 percent in the past year on demand for the metal in homes, cars and appliances. Metal for delivery in July rose as 1,820 yuan, or 3.2 percent, to settle at 58,740 yuan ($7,326) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The contract earlier rose by the daily fluctuation limit 4 percent to a record 59,190 yuan a ton.
Copper for cash delivery in Changjiang, the biggest spot market in Shanghai, rose as much as 1,850 yuan, or 3.2 percent, to a record 58,850 yuan a ton. Chinese users have to pay a 17 percent value-added tax, 2 percent import tax, premiums and freight charges for imported copper.
Demand for cables and wires in China, the biggest consumer of copper, will rise to 3.35 million tons by 2010 from an expected 2.45 million tons in 2006, He Shisi, an official at the China Electrical Equipment Industry Association, said on April 14. Installation of power grids in the rural areas and power construction will boost demand for copper, He said. April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Copper futures in Shanghai rose to a r"

Free speech on life support by George Will - Apr 16, 2006

Townhall.com :: Columns :: Free speech on life support by George Will - Apr 16, 2006: "The ``problem'' Republicans addressed is that in 2004 Democrats were more successful than Republicans in using 527 organizations -- advocacy groups named after the tax code provision governing them. In 2002, McCain-Feingold banned large ``soft money'' contributions for parties -- money for issue-advocacy and organizational activities, not for candidates. In 2004, to the surprise of no sensible person and most McCain-Feingold supporters, much of the money -- especially huge contributions from rich liberals -- was diverted to 527s. So on April 5, House Republicans, easily shedding what little remains of their ballast of belief in freedom and limited government, voted to severely limit the amounts that can be given to 527s.
David Dreier, R-Calif., explained, sort of. He said he voted against McCain-Feingold because ``dictating who could give how much to whom'' violated the First Amendment, but now he favors dictating to 527 contributors because McCain-Feingold is not violating the First Amendment enough: It is not ``working as it was intended.'' That is, it is not sufficiently restricting the money financing political advocacy"

Townhall.com :: Columns :: The generals' revolt by Pat Buchanan - Apr 14, 2006

Townhall.com :: Columns :: The generals' revolt by Pat Buchanan - Apr 14, 2006: "'Rumsfeld should resign because the administration is losing the war on the home front. As bad as things are in Baghdad, America won't be defeated there militarily. But it may be forced into a hasty and chaotic retreat by mounting domestic opposition to its policy. Much of the American public has simply stopped believing the administration's arguments about Iraq, and Rumsfeld is a symbol of that credibility gap. He is a spent force ...'
With the exception of Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni, the former head of Central Command who opposed the Bush-Rumsfeld rush to war, the other generals did not publicly protest until secure in retirement. Nevertheless, they bring imposing credentials to their charges against the defense secretary.
Major Gen. Paul Eaton, first of the five rebels to speak out, was in charge of training Iraqi forces until 2004. He blames Rumsfeld for complicating the U.S. mission by alienating our NATO allies.
Marine Lt. Gen. Gregory Newbold, director of operations for the Joint Chiefs up to the eve of war, charges Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz and Douglas Feith with a 'casualness and swagger that are the special province of those who have never had to execute these missions -- or bury the results.'
Maj. Gen. John Batiste, who commanded the Army's 1st Division in Iraq, charges that Rumsfeld does not seek nor does he accept the counsel of field commanders. Maj. Gen. John Riggs echoes Batiste. This directly contradicts what President Bush has told the nation.
Maj. Gen. Charles J. Swannack, former field commander of the 82nd Airborne, believes we can create a stable government in Iraq, but says Rumsfeld has mismanaged the war.
As of Good Friday, the Generals' Revolt has created a crisis for P"

Oil prices likely to surge to new record highs

Oil prices likely to surge to new record highs | Reuters.com: "LONDON (Reuters) - An influx of fresh fund buying and geopolitical worries will most likely push oil prices to new record highs soon, analysts said on Tuesday, while the most bullish predicted prices to eventually climb to $100 a barrel.
Supply concerns in Nigeria, Iran and other key oil-producing countries have ignited U.S. crude prices, up 13 percent this year and within $2 of the all-time record high of $70.85, reached in late August 2005 in the wake of hurricane damage in the United States.
Analysts predicted the market to rally even further as high oil prices have failed to reduce global demand.
'It is pretty clear that we can break $70 without too much problem,' said Deborah White, an analyst at SG CIB Commodities in Paris.
'We have been getting a massive injection (of investment fund money) in the commodity markets. It is very clear from the price action that they haven't stopped.'
Analysts said prices could peak at around $80 a barrel, a level that matches inflation-adjusted prices set after the 1979 Iranian revolution.
Twenty-seven years later, the market is again focused on the Middle East country as Tehran battles with the West over its nuclear program.
'Even without a possible Iranian oil disruption, we could go to $75 to $80 a barrel,' said Olivier Jakob of Swiss-based Petromatrix, an oil analysis "

Copper Stock Valuations

Apr 17, 2006 Copper Stock Valuations Adam Hamilton 321gold . . . Inc: "Few things move big companies more rapidly than earnings surprises, and the combination of massive positive earnings surprises coupled with extremely cheap valuations is a perfect recipe for elite copper stocks to really thrive in the months ahead. And even if copper corrects back to $2.25 or even its 200dma near $2.00, copper mining profits will still remain huge compared to the low copper stock prices for months or years to come.
In light of these dazzling copper stock fundamentals and their huge potential as more investors figure out what bargains they are, I believe it is very important that commodities-stock investors be diversified into elite copper and other base metals miners.
In our current Zeal Intelligence newsletter published in early April, I outline several elite copper majors as well as many more diversified miners with low P/Es and heavy base metals exposure. These elite companies' low valuations suggest their bulls are just getting started despite their excellent stock performance over the past year.
While I'm a mere mortal and cannot see the future, it does look like the odds favor a lot of big institutional interest in copper and base metals miners once their utterly spectacular Q1 results are released. If you want a shot at getting ahead of this wave, please subscribe to our acclaimed monthly newsletter today to read about these specific-stock opportunities. New e-mail PDF-edition subscribers will get this current issue free, your paid subscription will start in May.
The bottom line is copper stocks are overwhelmingly trading at extremely low valuations today. Since copper has advanced so much in percentage terms in its own bull, its producers are really exemplifying awesome profits leverage in the real world. Today's low copper stock valuations prove "

Stolen military data for sale in Afghanistan - Lisa Myers & the NBC Investigative Unit - MSNBC.com

Stolen military data for sale in Afghanistan - Lisa Myers & the NBC Investigative Unit - MSNBC.com: "WASHINGTON - Just outside the main gate of the huge U.S. military base in Bagram, Afghanistan, shopkeepers at a bazaar peddle a range of goods, including computer drives with sensitive — even secret information — stolen from the base.
This week, an NBC News producer, using a hidden camera, visited the bazaar and bought a half dozen of the memory drives the size of a thumb known as flash drives. On them, NBC News found highly sensitive military information, some which NBC will not reveal.
“This isn't just a loss of sensitive information,” says Lt. Col. Rick Francona (ret.), an NBC News military analyst. “This is putting U.S. troops at risk. This is a violation of operational security.”
Story continues below ↓

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Some of the data would be valuable to the enemy, including:
Names and personal information for dozens of DOD interrogators;
Documents on an “interrogation support cell” and interrogation methods;
IDs and photos of U.S. troops.
With information like this, “You could cripple our U.S. intelligence collection capability in Afghanistan,” says Francona.
Among the photos of Americans are pictures of individuals who appear to have been tortured and killed, most too graphic to show. NBC News does not know who caused their injuries. The Pentagon would not comment on the photos.
RELATED CONTENT
Red Tape: Military drives expose bigger problem
More reporting on this story from the AP, L.A. Times


The tiny computer memories are believed to have been smuggled off base by Afghan employees and sold to shopkeepers. Whoever buys one can simply plug it into another computer, and "

Canadian Climate change expert muzzled

TheStar.com - Climate change expert muzzled: "OTTAWA—The new, heavy communications hand of Conservative Ottawa has reached into the realm of fiction, with an Environment Canada scientist muzzled from speaking about his novel on climate change.
Mark Tushingham's new book is called Hotter than Hell, but yesterday he was plunged into the icy reality of the new Conservative communications regime, where ministers, MPs and the media are encountering strict new controls over the flow of information to the public.
Shortly before Tushingham was due to give a luncheon speech in Ottawa about his novel — a futuristic account of Canada and the U.S. at war over water resources in a globally warmed world — he received an email from the environment minister's office, warning him not to attend the event.
Paradoxically, the incident takes place during the same week the Conservatives unveiled new 'whistleblower' protection, designed to shield outspoken public servants from intimidation and threats to their livelihood.
Also yesterday, the government said it was axing 15 research programs related to the Kyoto climate-change protocol and aimed at reducing the greenhouse gases thought to cause global warming.
Sandra Buckler, Prime Minister Stephen Harper's communications director, says the gag order against Tushingham did not come from the top and Harper told reporters yesterday he was in the dark about the incident.
But Harper then added, in a not-so-subtle warning to the public service: 'We were elected on a particular platform. Our commitment to the people of Canada is to go ahead with that platform. That will include measures we're going to develop over the next year or so to deal with both pollution and greenhouse"

PrudentBear.com -Why a (Looming) Bear Market Can Seem Like A Bull Market The One-Stop Shop for the Bear Case

PrudentBear.com - The One-Stop Shop for the Bear Case: "Why I Am A Bear Just Now

The last time that corporate earnings took such a tumble (down 17%) was in 2001. If it happened every five years, we’d be looking at a similar event right about now. But it probably won’t occur this year. It could have happened in 2004 or 2005, but didn’t. It can also happen in 2007 or 2008. The suspects are the usual ones: High oil prices, low savings rates, and the adjustment of ARMs starting this year and next in a rising interest rate environment will finally bring a halt to consumer spending, a recession, and a drop in corporate earnings. So, too, could a popping of the investment bubble in China and elsewhere in Asia.

Bulls may say that these potential problems don’t matter. A recession hasn’t already happened and therefore won’t happen. But this observation isn’t valid, because it’s the last nail that seals the coffin. I’m a bear because I believe it will happen soon (in calendar 2007 with the U.S. stock market reflecting this in late 2006). It’s optimistic to assume that a recession won’t happen until 2010, which would trigger a market anticipation in 2009.

The X Factor

X, in the above paradox, was just over 13% (13.06% to be more exact). Yes, there can be low teens earnings growth for four years out of five. But the bad fifth year really hurts overall returns.

Get the Balance Right

Bulls react strongly to positive reinforcement, because they’re right more often than not, but they sometimes underestimate the impact that the occasional bad year can have on the averages. Bears, on the other hand, have a more realistic sense of the long-term avera"

PrudentBear.com - The One-Stop Shop for the Bear Case

PrudentBear.com - The One-Stop Shop for the Bear Case: "April 12 – Market News International (John Shaw): “In a trip last month, David Walker, the comptroller general of the United States, found a very receptive audience to absorb his message about the perils of the present path of American fiscal policy. That was the good news. The bad news was that the audience was in the ‘wrong’ country: the United Kingdom. In a speech to the London School of Economics, Walker said he is deeply concerned about the U.S.’s ‘deteriorating financial condition and worsening long-term fiscal outlook.’” Walker noted that the federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2005 was $319 billion, but added that far more troubling is the fact that the government’s liabilities and unfunded commitments reached $46 trillion that year, up from about $20 billion just five years ago. ‘As a certified public accountant and the federal official who signs the audit report on the U.S. government’s financial statements, I’m here to tell you that America’s finances are far worse than advertised.’”

Speculator Watch:

April 10 – Bloomberg (Harris Rubinroit and Alex Armitage): “Billionaire investor George Soros and partner Steven Mnuchin are seeking $745 million in loans to help buy Viacom Inc.’s DreamWorks LLC film library… Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein is arranging a $595 million five-year term loan with an interest margin of 1.375 percentage points over the London interbank offered rate…”

April 14 – Bloomberg (Alex Armitage and Dana Cimilluca): “Michael Jackson, struggling to stave off bankruptcy, agreed to a debt refinancing that may lead to him forfeiting a share of a music"

The Aristocracy of Prison Profits

Introduction - Dillon Read and the Aristocracy of Prison Profits: "What I found in Montana, however, was what I have found in every community in America. We are so financially entangled in the federal government and large corporations that we cannot see our complicity in everything we say we abhor. Our social networks are so interwoven with the institutional leadership – government officials, bankers, lawyers, professors, foundation heads, corporate executives, investors, fellow alumni – that we dare not hold our own families, friends, colleagues and neighbors accountable for our very real financial and operational complicity. While we hate the system in general, we keep honoring and supporting the people and institutions that are implementing the system when we interact with them in our day-to-day lives. And we enjoy the financial benefits and other perks that come from that intimate support.
Sitting in the rich dirt among the beautiful vegetables and flowers, I was facing the futility of trying to craft solutions without some basic consensus about the economic tapeworm that is killing us and all living things—while we blindly feed the worm. In a world of economic warfare, we have to see the strategy behind each play in the game. We have to see the economic tapeworm and how it works parasitically in our lives. A tapeworm injects chemicals into a host that causes the host to crave what is good for the tapeworm. In America, we despair over our deterioration, but we crave the next injection of chemicals from the tapeworm. "

From Iran to Chad, It's Really Bad

Resource Investor - Energy - Peak Oil Passnotes: From Iran to Chad, It's Really Bad: "PARIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- If the markets could behave like a rational entity we would already be at $80 oil, no problem. Of course we know markets do not behave rationally, instead they have a kind of menopausal myopia. Fixated on one topic one minute, hysterical about another the next.
Thus they have ignored a welter of events that theoretically should have pushed price way over $69. First, it appears very likely that one insane African leader, Obusanjo of Nigeria, is going after a third term in office. His front companies have not quite looted enough of the country's oil wealth for his manic greed, so another four years should set his family up nicely for the next 150 years or so. That is if he is able to pull it off. "

Six Retired Generals Clamor for Rumsfeld's Ouster

Six Retired Generals Clamor for Rumsfeld's Ouster: "Two more retired U.S. generals called for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to resign on Thursday, claiming the chief architect of the Iraq operation ignored years of Pentagon planning for a U.S. occupation and should be held accountable for the chaos there.
As the high-ranking officers accused Rumsfeld of arrogance and ignoring his field commanders, the White House was forced to defend a man who has been a lightning rod for criticism over a war that has helped drive President George W. Bush's public approval ratings to new lows.
Six retired generals have now called for Rumsfeld to step down, including two who spoke out on Thursday.
Retired Marine Corps Gen. Anthony Zinni added to the pressure for Rumsfeld's scalp by telling CNN that Rumsfeld should be held accountable for a series of blunders, starting with 'throwing away 10 years worth of planning, plans that had taken into account what we would face in an occupation of Iraq.'
His views were supported by other commanders who served under Rumsfeld.
'I really believe that we need a new secretary of defense because Secretary Rumsfeld carries way too much baggage with him,' said retired Maj. Gen. Charles Swannack, who led the Army's 82nd Airborne Division in Iraq.
'Specifically, I feel he has micromanaged the generals who are leading our forces,' he told CNN.
Retired Major Gen. John Riggs told National Public Radio that Rumsfeld had helped create an atmosphere of 'arrogance' among the Pentagon's top civilian leadership.
'They only need the military advice when it satisfies their agenda. I think that's a mistake, and that's why I think he should resign,' Riggs said."

Deceit by the truckload - National - smh.com.au

Deceit by the truckload - National - smh.com.au: "It is the greatest international scam in Australia's history. David Marr and Marian Wilkinson reveal the inside story on the wheat board kickbacks.

Illustration: Harry Afentoglou

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AdvertisementBETWEEN them, a pitiless dictator and UN sanctions had reduced Iraq to ruin. The currency was destroyed. Millions were starving. Hospitals had no medicines, no bandages and no anaesthetics. Faced with a death toll of half a million children since sanctions began, the US secretary of state, Madeleine Albright, remarked: 'We think the price is worth it.'"

Farber on Faber

Q: When you were growing up, you were a surgeon’s son - what propelled you to study economics?


A: Actually at that time I was skiing for the Swiss national team and I did not really know what to study but I knew that Economics was a relatively easy thing to do. It took only four years.



Q: What did they teach you - what was the world like in the 1960’s - and how has your worldview changed through the lenses as an economist?


A: I think in the 1960’s the world had far fewer opportunities; we still had the cold war, the Vietnam War was on and as an investor one couldn’t invest in countries like China or India or Taiwan or Indonesia. So the world was much more limited in terms of investment opportunities and even the total credit take - 3:32 was much lower as a percent of the economy than it is today.



In other words, that time people had relatively high incomes but the asset values were relatively low. Today in real terms, in the western world, people have relatively low incomes and asset values are high measured by the Dow Jones or by housing prices.



Q: How was the first impact of Asia on you? Being a disciplined Swiss - was it chaotic, disorganised?


A: No not really. I arrived in Hong Kong in the 1970 and Hong Kong Chinese were very hardworking but of course what strikes me today is, how poor Asia was in 1973; if one went to Taiwan, Korea or Singapore, these were very poor societies and if one looks back at the last 30 years - the progress that has been achieved is just mind boggling. All I can say is that history is accelerating in terms of speed of change. If one looks at how Bangalore has developed in the last 10 years or how Shanghai has developed…in 10-20 years time, there will be changes in the world and in Asia that nobody can really comprehend today.



Q: At that time steel and shipyards were the talk of Asia?


A: Yes, shipping was a big thing in the 70’s. Everybody was building steel plants and cement but in the 1970’s, very few people were interested in investing in Asia. Some American institutions had few investments in Japanese stocks (like the Templetons of the world) but aside form British institutions that bought some shares in Malaysia, Hong Kong and Singapore, there were practically no funds of flows out of America and Europe into Asia.



All the flow that time was from Asia into US stocks and also into gold, silver and other precious metals. Then in the late ‘80s the flow began into Asia from the western world.



Q: There are great myths built about the market and you spent the better part of your life adding to the truths and destroying the myths - one of the great myths is that stock market always goes up in the long run?


A: That is very difficult to tell. One could argue that in the long run most things will appreciate in value, but the problem is that most companies live only 30 years and then they die. In other words, they go bankrupt. So when people talk about stocks going up in the long run, one would have to constantly re-balance ones portfolio. One could also argue that stocks go up sometimes but they fall as a result of inflation adjusted or in other words against another currency or gold.



Q: In the long run, it is also said that it is never different- there is a myth that every bull market will say it is different this time - is it right?


A: I think in every asset mania what then happens is that if asset price or a stock or real estate have gone up for a long time, one will find university professors who write books and say why real estate goes up or why stocks always appreciate and so on. The fact is simply that, markets move up and down and that will never change.



Q: The myth that a bull market contains the seed of destruction to the next bear market.



A: I suppose the longer a bull market lasts, the more likely it is that it will end in a colossal bubble because if you consider that there are in this room several asset classes: real estate, stocks, bonds, commodities etc. And say stocks always go up more than commodities, then obviously all the money will move into stocks because they will outperform other assets and so once all the money moves into stocks, then obviously you will end with the whole room only owning stocks and thus the bubble.



Q: And frightfully expensive, P/E ratios?



A: Yes exactly but the beauty of the bubble is because it attracts so much money, it will leave other asset prices depressed compared to the bubble sector. So if one looks at the 2000 bubble, we had the bubble in the TMT sector but we did not have a bubble in the steel stocks or commodity related shares such as oil companies and that is where the value was at that time.



Q: So the great truth is that every crisis creates an opportunity?


A: Yes that is for sure but not necessarily where the crisis occurs. Every bubble also creates an opportunity because rise in one sector creates an undervaluation somewhere else. Since the year 2002 and since Mr Alan Greenspan embarked on this highly expansionary monetary policy; all asset prices have gone up, bond prices have rallied, commodity prices are up, stock prices are up and real estate is up and this is across the world. Today it is difficult to find something that is distressed; I think there is only relative value at the present time.



Q: You say in your books -“don’t listen to analysts; listen to markets” -could you explain that?


A: I think analysts are frequently not very objective because they work for large investment banks and have a vested interest. It is very seldom in life to find someone who is in real estate who is negative about real estate or an art dealer who will tell you art prices will go down or a stock broker who will tell you stocks will go down.



I am sceptical about analysts that specialise in one sector because they have vested interest that that sector remains popular and actually attracts a lot of money. It is the same as a fund manager - he cannot turn and tell his investor I don’t think you should invest in India if he is an Indian fund because if his investors leave his fund, then he has no business left. So these types of people with self-interest have a tendency, whether they are at heart optimistic or not, but atleast to tell the public that they are optimistic.



Q: You wrote a paper on Life cycle of emerging markets. How relevant is that today and over the years what has been your experience of how the emerging markets behave?



A: I think all markets go through stages whether they are in a phase Zero which would be defined as a phase, where there is really no interest whatsoever in that asset class. It could be Latin American shares in the late 1980s after Latin America had gone through very high inflation rates, or it could have been Japanese shares, recently in 2003 after 14 years of bear market, there was very little interest in Japanese shares.



In India, we had several cycles and until three years ago, foreign investors have shown very little interest in Indian shares. Then there is usually a catalyst, which leads to some improvement in the economic conditions and financial conditions of that country, and then you have a bull market, which usually ends in a bubble. Nobody knows whether in India, the bull market is ending now with this new high, or whether we will go to 12,000, 15,000.



Q: How would you judge the top?



A: I would say that frequently it is easier to identify a major low. When lows occur, you have a very often a lengthy base building period during which a commodity, or a stock trades sideways for many years, and then there is a breakout on the upside. With the market tops, a bubble is a bubble and you hardly know at what point it will break. If you take Nasdaq it could have been broken at 4000 a year earlier, or at 5000 in March 2000, or at 7000, who knows, it was exaggerated any way. To identify tops is easier once the top has already occurred, than ahead of time.



Q: A lot of people say that you get the trend right, but the timing wrong. Is it important to get both of them right?



A: I don’t think I always have been pessimistic. I have been involved in fund management as a chairman of variety of funds. I have written a lot about emerging markets and promoted emerging markets over the last 25 years. Concerning the timing, I am the first one to admit that to press a button and say this is the low and press it again and say this is the peak, is very difficult. I am not sure if anyone has successfully managed to do that. I always look at what is the risk and what is the reward of an investment.



If you can find an asset class or stock market that is inexpensive I am prepared to wait until it moves. People criticized me in 1999, when I said buy gold now because it has gone down for 20 years, it may be an opportunity to buy it and it started to move in 2001. For two years you are sitting without any reward but then it went up significantly since then.



Q: How important is it to understand the role of the Federal Reserve to understand the world economy?



A: I think it is very important to understand the fact that we have a central banking system where the central banks can indicate, theoretically drop dollar bills from Helicopters. You wont be able to do that because all American helicopters are in Iraq. But they can print money, that is a fact and they can flood the system with liquidity.



Then you have to find a measurement of inflation. We measure inflation by rise in money supply. It would be wrong to think that the inflation is just consumer price increases. Inflation is a loss of purchasing power of your currency, dollar or Rupee. It can manifest itself by rise in consumer price but it can also manifest itself by a loss of purchasing power of money against real estate, or against stocks and real estate.



Q: Americans have fewer passports than their mortgages, so clearly they don’t care about dollar depreciating?



A: The difference between America and an emerging economy is that, the emerging economy usually borrows in a hard currency. They have difficulties in borrowing in local currencies. So they borrow in dollars or in yen. So when the current account deficit balloons, it comes to a currency crisis and depreciation of currency and then an adjustment in the economy takes place with consumption slumping and then the current account balance will be retraced.



In the case of the US, they can print money as much as they like and keep current account deficit ballooning and also have a very negative net asset position and it doesn’t hurt them because their borrowings are in dollars.



Q: How long will the foreign governments, the Chinese, the Japanese continue to subsidies these huge deficits. What are the implications when they pull from the T - bill auctions?



A: It is conceivable that we have a dollar stand and dollar depreciates in value. Since the year 2000, the stock market has deprecated against the price of gold and dollar has depreciated against the price of gold. The gold price has gone up in dollar terms and that could continue for quite some time. I think eventually the world will be very apprehensive to hold dollars and will rush into assets.



Q: What is the public enemy No 1 in your book, would it be inflation, or deflation?



A: In my book public enemy No 1 are the central banks. I think the world will be much better off under a gold standard. Other than that, I think the asset inflation is much more dangerous than consumer price inflation because asset inflation is driven by a huge credit bubble. Then asset prices become very expensive and when asset prices go down it leads to recession. So the Central Banks will support asset prices and see to it that they keep on going up. So they will inflate more and more and eventually you will come to an economic collapse.



Q: Can the dollar fall alone, or would it be the dominos effect, which would take down other markets?



A: In my opinion, the dollar will depreciate mostly against the gold. In the long run, what you will see is the standard of living in America will decline very significantly compared to the standard of living in Asia. And the stock market capitalization of US, which is now 52% of the world's stock market capitalization, which will decline to somewhere between 20% and 30% and the Asian stock market capitalization will rise to between 20% and 30%, possibly 50% of the world.

Microsoft cannot withstand Linux pyramid: philosopher

iTWire - IT News Australia, Telecommunication News, IT JOBS - Microsoft cannot withstand Linux pyramid: philosopher Girardet: "Twelve years ago, Andreas Girardet, a Masters graduate in philosophy and logic from Berlin University caught the twin internet and Linux bugs. Today Girardet, whose official title at Suse Linux vendor Novell is Linux Evangelist, says logic dictates that Microsoft will not be able to withstand the onslaught of Linux.
Girardet, who once founded a Linux distribution called Yoper, says the buzz around Linux in the enterprises he visits with Novell sales teams is unmistakeable. His role is to explain the ins and outs of Linux to senior IT executives and he says that acceptance and knowledge of Linux has grown in quantum leaps in the past two years.

“In the last two years I have seen it go from, ‘well let’s look at what Linux is’ to ‘OK let’s do it’. Now everyone knows about it. I have not been to a single sales talk recently, where we have had no success. We literally can’t keep up with the demand,” says Girardet."

MORE GENERALS CALL FOR RUMSFELD'S RESIGNATION

The Progress Report - American Progress Action Fund: "NATIONAL SECURITY -- MORE GENERALS CALL FOR RUMSFELD'S RESIGNATION: '[W]e are witnessing the rumblings of an officers' revolt, and things could get ugly if it were to take hold and roar,' Slate's Fred Kaplan writes. In recent weeks, numerous high-ranking military officials -- including Generals Anthony Zinni, Paul D. Eaton, and Gregory Newbold -- have warned that senior Pentagon leadership has undermined U.S. national security interests and called on Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to resign. Officials continue to come forward. In today's Washington post, retired Army Maj. Gen. John Batiste, who commanded the 1st Infantry Division in Iraq in 2004-2005, says, 'We need leadership up there that respects the military as they expect the military to respect them. And that leadership needs to understand teamwork.' Another retired officer, Army Maj. Gen. John Riggs, shared his sense that 'everyone' in his peer group 'pretty much thinks Rumsfeld and the bunch around him should be cleared out,' and that he 'emphatically agrees.' 'Batiste's comments resonate especially within the Army,' the Post reports, since it is 'widely known there that he was offered a promotion to three-star rank to return to Iraq and be the No. 2 U.S. military officer there but he declined because he no longer wished to serve under Rumsfeld.' More on the 'Rumsfeld Mutiny' here."

MEET UNCLE SAM - WITHOUT CLOTHES

MEET UNCLE SAM - WITHOUT CLOTHES - PARADING AROUND CHINA AND THE WORLD

Observed From the Top of the Great Wall through the Eyes of the Innocent Little Boy by Andre Gunder Frank

INTRODUCING UNCLE SAM - WITHOUT CLOTHES

Uncle Sam has just reneged and defaulted on up to forty percent of its trillions of dollars [$] foreign debt, and nobody has said a word except for a line in this week's Economist. In plain English that means that Uncle Sam runs a world-wide confidence racket with his self-made $ based on the confidence that he has elicited and received from others around the world, and he is a also a dead-beat in that he does not honor and return the money he has received. How much of our dollar stake we lost depends on how much we, the creditors, originally paid for it. He let, or rather through his deliberate political economic policies, drove his $ down by over 40 percent from one Euro at $ 80 cents at its highest to now 135 cents against the Euro, Yen, Yuan and other currencies. And $ is still declining, indeed apt to plummet altogether.

There was also a spate of competitive devaluations in the 1930s, and it was called the "Beggar Thy Neighbor Policy" of shifting the costs for the neighbor/s to bear. True, with the decline of $, so has the real value that foreigners pay decreased to service their debt to Uncle Sam. That works only if they can themselves earn a profit from an increase in value of other currencies against $. Otherwise, foreigners earn and pay in the same devalued $, plus the loss from devaluation between the time they received $ and had to repay it to Uncle Sam. China and other East Asians do earn in and have pegged their currencies to $, so they have already lost a substantial portion of their world's by far largest $ stake. And they, like all others, will also lose the rest.

For Uncle Sam's debt to the rest of the world already amounts to over one third of his annual national domestic production NDP, and it is still growing. That already makes his debt economically and politically never repayable, even if he wanted to, which obviously he does not. Uncle Sam's domestic debt, e.g. by consumers on credit cards and mortgages, is almost 100 percent of GDP and consumption, including that from China. Uncle Sam's federal debt is now $ 7,5 trillion [T], of which all but $1T was built up in the last three decades, the last $ 2T in the last eight years, and the last $1T in the last two years. Alas, that costs over $ 330B in interest, compared to $ 15B spent on NASA.

"Who Me, Worry?" Congress just raised the debt ceiling to $8.2 T. To help us visualize, only $ 1 T in tightly packed $ 1,000 dollar bills would match a building 40 stories high, so that $ 7.5T would be 300 stories or about three times the height of the Empire State Building. Nearly half of that is owed to foreigners. All Uncle Sam's debt, including private household debt of about $ 10T, plus corporate and financial debt, with their options, derivatives and the like, plus state and local government debt comes to an unimaginable $ 37 trillion, to help you 1,480 Empire State buildings high, and nearly four times Uncle Sam's NDP. Uncle Sam's issue last year of a mere record high $ 140B in high-yielding junk bonds must seem puny, even if they are so called because they are [only!] the first to be defaulted, after or along with consumer and mortgage debt and business belly ups. Only some of that debt and its coming default can be managed domestically, but with dangerous limitations for Uncle Sam as noted below. That is only one reason I want you to meet Uncle Sam, the dead-beat confidence man, who may remind you of the Meet Joe Black movie. For as we get to know Uncle Sam better below, we will find that he is also a Shylock and a corrupt one at that.

UNCLE SAM'S COLD WAR PROXY FOR THE NORTH-WEST vs. SOUTH WAR

Before we go on, lets first translate this jumble of numbers into plain English. It was already done back in 1948 by George Keenan, otherwise known as Mr. X the architect of Uncle Sam's Containment Policy:

We have about half the world's wealth ...but only 5 percent of its population.... In this situation ... our real job in the coming years is to devise a pattern of relationships which permit us to maintain this position of disparity....To do so we have to dispense with all sentimentality and day-dreaming, ... concentrate everywhere on our immediate national objectives...[and] deal in straight power concepts. The less we are hampered by idealistic slogans, the better [Department of State Policy Planning Study No. 23, 1948].

Of course, that statement was for Uncle Sam's private internal consumption only. For the rest of the world, including most Uncle Sammies, "idealistic slogans" will do better, so long as they don't hamper us, of course. For they manifest the world's grandest ever Ponzi Scheme Confidence Racket run around the world by Uncle Sam. How else "to maintain this disparity"? Naked power helps, but it is not enough. All the more so, given that since Mr. X wrote, the already then terribly UNfair world distribution of income has become about 3 times more unequal. For today, just consider this simple index: 265 MILLION Uncle Sammies consume more oil, 22 percent of the world's total, than over THREE BILLION Asians, who all put together get 20 percent - and want more, especially the Chinese. Of course the Uncle Sam also accounts for a similar proportionate share of the Good Earth. To help him do it, he also relies on the Pentagon, which to boot is itself probably the biggest and least observed single polluter of all.

This observation also marks a continuity across that other wall, the one that fell in Berlin in 1989. For it shows that Mr. X's Cold War Containment was not only or even primarily against the Russians, but also a Containment of the other 95 percent of the world and especially of the vast poor majority who suffers most from the disparity he observed. Indeed, he suggests that the East-West Cold War, that he was instrumental in starting already as Uncle Sam's ambassador in Moscow, was largely a proxy for the North- and especially Uncle Sam-South real war over that half, or both halves, of the world's wealth. So that should leave us less surprised at the failure of the mistakenly anticipated ''Peace Dividend" to materialize after that little wall fell down in 1989. The other, or the real, war continues and only takes other forms or rather labels, for 'human rights," "democracy," the "free market" and "free trade," "freedom" in general, indeed even ''civilization," all of the last several of which are echoes of the ''white man's burden" from the 19th century. Just add a few new againsts, first ''narco terrorism" by Bush Daddy vs. Noriega, and now just undefined "terrorism" by Bush Son vs. anybody and everybody "who is not with us." I forgot "weapons of mass destruction," the ones of which Uncle Sam has and uses the most, oh and weapons of mass deception that Uncle Sam uses like nobody's business. That is of course a sine qua non of any Confidence Racket, and he runs the world's grandest ever, as we will observe ad nauseum, starting right now.

UNCLE SAM LIVES HOLY OFF THE FAT OF THE WORLD'S LAND AND FROM CHINESE WORK

Uncle Sam is the world's most privileged for having the exclusive right to print the world's reserve currency at will at a cost of nothing but the paper and ink it is printed on. By so doing , he can also export to foreigners the inflation that his irresponsible printing of $ generates. For there are already at least three times as many $ floating around the world as at Uncle Sam's home. Additionally, his is also the only ''foreign'' debt that is mostly denominated in his own $ currency. Most foreigners' debt is also denominated in the same $, but they have to buy $ from Uncle Sam with their own currency and real goods.

So Uncle Sam simply pays the Chinese and others essentially with those $ that have no real worth beyond its paper and ink. So especially poor China gives away for nothing at all to Uncle Sam $ hundreds of billions [Bs] worth of real goods produced at home and consumed by rich Uncle Sam. Then China turns around and trades these same Uncle Sam paper $ bills in for other Uncle Sam paper $ called Treasury Certificate bonds, which are even more worthless, except that they pay a percent of interest. For as we already noted they will never be able to be cashed in and redeemed in full or even in part, and anyway they have already lost much of their value to Uncle Sam already. In an earlier essay, I argued that Uncle Sam's power rests on two pillars only, the paper $ and the Pentagon. Each supports the other, but the vulnerability of each is also an Achilles heel that threatens the viability of the other. Since then, Afghanistan and Iraq have shown much of the confidence in the Pentagon to have misplaced. That has helped reduce confidence and value also in $ in the dollar, which has in turn reduced Uncle Sam's ability to use that $ to finance his Pentagon foreign adventures. See my 2004 essay "Coup d' Etat and Paper Tiger in Washington, Fiery Dragon in the Pacific," which also conjures up the productive growth of China http://rrojasdatabank.info/agfrank/new_world_order.html#coup

Additionally we must realize that Uncle Sam's numbers above and below are also all literally relative. So far the relations - in particular with China - still favor Uncle Sam, but they also help maintain an image that is deceptive. Consider the following:

" ... a $2 toy leaving a Uncle Sam-owned factory in China is a $3 shipment arriving at San Diego. By the time a Uncle Sam consumer buys it for $10 at Wal-Mart, the Uncle Sam economy registers $10 in final sales, less $3 import cost, for a $7 addition to the Uncle Sam gross domestic product (GDP)" [ mhttp://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/a-list/2004w07/msg00083.htm [the original said US].

Moreover, ever clever Uncle Sam has arranged matters so as to earn 9 percent from his economic and financial holdings abroad, while foreigners earn only 3 percent real return on theirs, and only one percent on their Treasury Certificates, invested in Uncle Sam's God's Country. Note that this difference of 6 percent is already double what Uncle Sam pays out, and his total 9 percent take is triple the 3 percent he gives back. Therefore, although the reciprocal foreign holdings by each other with Uncle Sam and abroad are now about equal, Uncle Sam is still the BIG net interest/ed winner, just like any Shylock, but no other ever did so grand a business.

But Uncle Sam also earns quite well, thank you , from other holdings abroad, e.g. from service payments by mostly poor foreign debtors. The sums involved are not peanuts. For from his direct investments in foreign property alone, Uncle Sam profits now equal 50 percent, and including his receipts from other holdings abroad, now are a full 100 percent, of Uncle Sam's profits derived from all of his own domestic activities combined! These foreign receipts add more than 4 percent to Uncle Sam's NDP. That helps nicely to compensate for the failure of domestic profits yet to recover even their level in 1972. That is because Uncle Same has failed to make enough real good investments at home to boost productivity and profits thereon. That extra profit from foreigners also compensates for much of the Uncle Sam still rising trade deficit of $ 600+ B a year [last month it was at an $ 666 annual rate, it was announced today] from excess home consumption over what he himself produces. That has resulted in the trillions $ [three of them it is said] of his foreign debt. But Uncle Sam is playing his cards close to his chest and is understandably reluctant to make any official revelation of how high [ more than the Empire State building in $ 1000 bills?] his foreign debt really is. Nonetheless, we may rest assured that his gross foreign debt is by far the world's largest and remains so also as net foreign debt even if we deduct foreigners' debts to him.

The productivity hype of Clinton's ''new economy" 1990s was limited to computers and IT, and even that proved to be a sham when the dot com bubble burst. Also, not only the apparent increase in "profits" but also that of "productivity" was being boosted by shop-floor, office and sales floor worker speed-up and/or longer work-times at the bottom. WALMART obliges its non-union [it won't permit any] workers on threat of dismissal to "clock-out" and return to work at no pay. At the top productivity and profits were boosted by "creative accounting" hype by Enron, Worldcom, Arthur Anderson and others of their likes engaged in shams.

UNCLE SAM CANNOT SAVE HIMSELF: HE IS HOOKED ON CONSUMPTION AND OTHER DRUGS

Why any and all this?, we may well ask. The simple answer is that Uncle Sam, who is increasingly hooked on consumption not to mention harder drugs, saves no more than 0.2 percent of his own income. The Fed's guru now you see him-now you don't Dr. of financial and media magic, Alan Greenspan recently observed that this is so, because the richest 20 percent of Uncle Sammies, who are the only ones who do save, have reduced their savings to 2 percent. Yet, even these measly savings [other and poorer countries save and even invest 20, 30, 40 percent of their income] are more than counterbalanced by the 6 percent deficit spending of the Uncle Sam government, which does so largely on their behalf. That is what brings the average between the two together to those 0,2 percent. So Uncle Sam has a $ 400+ reported budget deficit, which is really $ 600+ B if we count ,as we should, the $ 200+ B Uncle Sam ''borrows'' from the temporary surplus in his own Federal Social Security fund that he is also bankrupting. But never mind, Uncle Sam President Bush just promised to privatize much if that and let people buy their own old age ''security'' in the ever insecure market.

Rich Uncle Sam, and primarily his highest off the hog earners and consumers as well as of course the Big Uncle in Washington himself, to live off the fat of the rest of the world's land. Apart from printing world money, Uncle Sam also does so with his "twin deficits," first his $ 600+B budget deficit and then the above mentioned related

$600+B trade deficit, now at an $ 666B annual rate last month, as we saw. With them. Uncle Sam absorbs the savings of others who themselves are - often much - lower on the hog: Particularly their central banks place many of their reserves in world currency $ in the hands of Uncle Sam in Washington and some also in $ at home. Their private investors send $ to or buy $ assets in Wall Street, all with the confidence that they are putting their where-with-all in the world's most safe Uncle Sam haven [that of course is part of the above mentioned confidence racket]. From the central banks alone, we are looking at yearly sums of over $ 100B from Europe, over $ 100B from poor China, $ 140B from super-saver Japan, an amount of many $10sB by many others around the world. That also includes investors and banks from the poor Third World.

HOW UNCLE SAM CREATES AND COLLECTS THIRD WOLD DEBT

In addition, Uncle Sam also obliges the states in the Third World to act as collection agencies or even as Repo Goons, where goons are the ones sent out to repo-ssess the Godfather's property by any means. Only in this case, it is not even that; for he is just taking new possession, since the original debt has long since been paid off. The states raise taxes and fees from the population but lower social spending on education and health to at home to divert funds to pay the debt abroad. They also borrow in turn from private capital at home at high interest rates that the state pays to the rich lenders, but out of taxes collected from the poor. That way, income is ''recycled" from poor to rich at home as well as from these poor via the foreign debt to the even richer abroad. These literally forced savings of the poor are then sent to Uncle Sam in the form of ''service'' on the $ debt that is "owed" to him.

Privatization is the name of the game in the Third World as elsewhere, except for the debt! Only the debt was socialized after it had been incurred mostly by private business, but only the state had enough power to squeeze the greatest bulk of back payments out of the hides of its poor and middle-class people and transfer them as ''invisible service payments'' to Uncle Sam. When Mexicans were told to tighten their belt still further, they answered that we can't because we already ate it yesterday. Only Argentina and for a while Russia declared an effective moratorium on debt ''service'' and that only after political economic policies, imposed by Uncle Sam's advisers and his IMF strong arm, had destroyed their entire societies like never before in ''peace'' time. Uncle Sam's Treasury Secretary and his IMF hand-maiden blithely continue to strut around the world insisting that the Third - and ex-Second, now also Third - World of course continue to service their foreign debts, especially to him. No matter that with interest rates multiplied several times over by Uncle Sam himself after the Fed's Paul Volker's coup in October 1979, most have already paid off their original borrowings three to five times over. For to pay at those interest rates that Volker boosted to 20 percent, they had to borrow still more at higher rates until their outstanding foreign debt doubled and tripled. And so did their domestic debt from which part of the foreign payments were raised as particularly in Brazil. All that, while Uncle Sam himself is blithely defaulting on his own foreign debt, as he already had several times before in the 19th century.

Speaking of that, it may be well to recall at least two pieces of advice from that time: Lord Cromer, who administered Egypt for then dominant British imperial interests sad that his most important instrument for doing so was Egypt's debts to Britain. These had just multiplied when Egypt was obliged to sell its Suez Canal shares to Britain in order to pay of f earlier debts. British Prime Minister Disraeli explained and justified his purchase of the same on the grounds that it would strengthen British Imperial interests. Today, that is called ''debt-for-equity swaps," which is one of Uncle Sam's latter day favorite policies to use the debt to acquire profitable and/or strategically important real resources, as was the Canal as the short cut to the jewel of the British Empire in India.

Another piece of practical advice came from the premier military strategist Clausewitz: Make the lands you conquer pay for their own conquest and administration. That is of course exactly what Britain did in India through the infamous ''Home Charges" remitted to London in payment for Britain administering India. Even the British themselves recognized this as "tribute" that was responsible for much of "The Drain" from India to Britain. How much more efficient yet to let foreign countries' own states administer themselves [Britain called it "Indirect Rule], but by rules set and imposed by the Uncle Sam run IMF and then effect a drain of debt service anyway. So therein the British also set a 19th century precedent with ''independent'' states. It has since been called the "imperialism of free trade." As long as the rules work, fine. When they don't, a bit of gun-boat diplomacy can help, and Uncle Sam already learned to use that early in he 20th century. When even that was not enough, the next option is to invade, and if necessary to occupy - and then to rely on the Clausewitz rule to make the victims pay for their own occupation. We shall note several recent instances thereof below and pay special attention to the present one in Iraq.

Meantime as I write, but after I wrote the above, I received the following e-mail:

Confessions of an Economic Hit Man: How the U.S. Uses Globalization to Cheat Poor Countries Out of Trillions. We speak with John Perkins, a former respected member of the international banking community. In his book Confessions of an Economic Hit Man he describes how as a highly paid professional, he helped the U.S. cheat poor countries around the globe out of trillions of dollars by lending them more money than they could possibly repay and then take over their economies.

JOHN PERKINS: Basically what we were trained to do and what our job is to do is to build up the American empire. To bring -- to create situations where as many resources as possible flow into this country, to our corporations, and our government, and in fact we've been very successful. We've built the largest empire in the history of the world. primarily through economic manipulation, through cheating, through fraud, through seducing people into our way of life, through the economic hit men. I was very much a part of that.. I was initially recruited while I was in business school back in the late sixties by the National Security Agency, the nation's largest and least understood spy organization.

and then [it] send[s] us to work for private consulting companies, engineering firms, construction companies, so that if we were caught, there would be no connection with the government..

I became its chief economist. I ended up having fifty people working for me. But my real job was deal-making. It was giving loans to other countries, huge loans, much bigger than they could possibly repay. One of the conditions of the loan-let's say a $1 billion to a country like Indonesia or Ecuador-and this country would then have to give ninety percent of that loan back to a U.S. company, or U.S. companies . a Halliburton or a Bechtel.. A country today like Ecuador owes over fifty percent of its national budget just to pay down its debt. And it really can't do it. So, we literally have them over a barrel. So, when we want more oil, we go to Ecuador and say, "Look, you're not able to repay your debts, therefore give your oil companies your Amazon rain forest, which are filled with oil." And today we're going in and destroying Amazonian rain forests, forcing Ecuador to give them to us because they've accumulated all this debt . [We work] very, very closely with the World Bank. The World Bank provides most of the money that's used by economic hit men, it and the I.M.F. [http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=04/11/09/1526251]

UNCLE SAM CONSUMES AND CONTROLS OIL

Last but not least, oil producers also put their savings in Uncle Sam. With the ''shock" of oil that restored its real price after its dollar valuation had fallen in 1973, ever cleverer by half Henry Kissinger made a deal with the world's largest oil exporter in Saudi Arabia that it would continue to price oil in $, and these earnings would be deposited in Uncle Sam, partly compensated by military hardware in return. That deal de facto extended to all OPEC and still stands, except that before the War against Iraq it suddenly opted out by switching to pricing its oil in Euros, and Iran threatened do so as well. North Korea has no oil but trades entirely in Euros. That constitutes the triple "rogue states axis of evil." Today Venezuela is a major oil supplier to Uncle Sam and also supplies some at preferential rates as non-dollar trade swaps to other poor countries like Cuba. So Uncle Sam sponsored and financed military commandos from its Plan Columbia next door, promoted an illegal coup, and when that failed a legal referendum in his attempt at yet another "regime change" there as well; and now along with Brazil all three are being baptized as yet another ''axis of evil."

After writing this, I found that the good [hit] man Mr. Perkins was in Saudi Arabia too:

Yes, it was a fascinating time. I remember well . the Treasury Department hired me and a few other economic hit men. We went to Saudi Arabia.,.. And we worked out this deal whereby the Royal House of Saud agreed to send most of their petro-dollars back to the United States and invest them in U.S. government securities. The Treasury Department would use the interest from these securities to hire U.S. companies to build Saudi Arabia-new cities, new infrastructure-which we've done. And the House of Saud would agree to maintain the price of oil within acceptable limits to us, which they've done all of these years, and we would agree to keep the House of Saud in power as long as they did this, which we've done, which is one of the reasons we went to war with Iraq in the first place. And in Iraq we tried to implement the same policy that was so successful in Saudi Arabia, but Saddam Hussein didn't buy. When the economic hit men fail in this scenario, the next step is what we call the jackals. Jackals are C.I.A.-sanctioned people that come in and try to foment a coup or revolution. If that doesn't work, they perform assassinations. Or try to. In the case of Iraq, they weren't able to get through to Saddam Hussein. He had -- His bodyguards were too good. He had doubles. They couldn't get through to him. So the third line of defense, if the economic hit men and the jackals fail, the next line of defense is our young men and women, who are sent in to die and kill, which is what we've obviously done in Iraq. (http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=04/11/09/1526251)

THE WORLD'S GRANDEST EVER PONZI SCHEME CONFIDENCE RACKET

To return to the main issue and call a spade a HUGE spade, all of the above are part and parcel of the world's biggest ever Ponzi scheme confidence racket. Like all other ones, its most essential characteristic is that it can only continue to pay off $ and be maintained at the top as long as it continues to receive new $ at the bottom, voluntarily through confidence if possible and by force if not. [Of course, the Clausewitz and Cromer formulaes result in the poorest paying the most, since they are also the most defenseless: so that the ones sitting on/above them, pass as much of the cost and pain down to them].

But what if and when confidence runs out, and $ no longer comes? Things are already getting shakier at the Uncle Sam house. The declining $ reduces the necessary $ inflows. Last month, they were only $ 48B against outflows of $ 55B. So the Uncle Sam Dr. Greenspan needs to raise interest rates to maintain some Uncle Sam attraction for the foreign $ he needs to fill the trade gap. As a quid pro quo for being reappointed by President Bush, he promised to do that only after the election. That time has now arrived, but doing so threatens to collapse the housing bubble that was built on low interest and mortgage - and re-mortgage- rates. But it is in their house values that most of Uncle Sam people have their savings if any. They and this imaginary wealth effect supported over-consumption and the nearly as high as NDP household debt. Volker's high interest rate successor at the Fed, Greenspan lowered interest rates almost to zero, which made borrowing and mortgages - that is debt - cheap and plentiful. That increased the demand for consumer goods and houses. The former are cheap from China, but the latter drives up the price and ''value'' of houses, which has encouraged upgrading to still more expensive ones, increased ''collateral," and still more borrowing, and still more consumption. So did capital flight from East Asia after its 1997 financial crisis. It fled to Uncle Sam's safe haven, both to Washington into Treasury Certificates and to New Work into Wall Street equities. At the same time, Uncle Sam benefited from the crisis by buying devalued East Asian currencies and using them to buy up East Asian real resources, and in Korea also banks, at bargain basement reduced prices. That is what generated the big bull market of rising stock prices and again apparent greater wealth, which also supported more consumption. Since then, he stock market has already crashed again.

When the housing market also crashes with Dr. Greenspan's present and future increase in interest rates, and therefore mortgage costs, a collapse of the housing price bubble would not only drastically undercut house prices. It would thereby have falling domino effects on the owners' enormous second and third re-mortgages, consumer credit card and other debt, their consumption, corporate debt and profit and investment. In fact, these factors would be enough to also plummet Uncle Sam into deep recession, if not depression, and another Big Bear deflation on stock and de facto on other prices, rendering debt service even more onerous. If $ declines, even domestic $ price inflation is de facto deflationary against other currencies, that Russians and Latin Americans discovered to their peril as we observe below. Still lower real Uncle Sam investment would reduce its industrial productivity and competitiveness even more - probably to a degree lower than can compensated by further devaluing $ and making its exports cheaper as is the confident hope of many, probably including the good Dr.

Until now, the apparent inflation of prices abroad in rubles and pesos and their consequent devaluations have been a de facto deflation in terms of the $ world currency. Uncle Sam then printed $ to buy up at fire sale bargain $ prices their natural resources in Russia [whose economy was then run on $100 bills], and companies and even banks, as in South Korea. True, now Dr. Greenspan and Uncle Sam are trying again to get other central banks also to raise their interest rates and plunge their own people into even deeper depression. But even if he can, thereby also canceling out the relative attractiveness of his own interest rate hike, how could that save Uncle Sam himself?

So far beyond Osama bin Laden, Al Queda and all terrorists put together, the greatest real world threat to Uncle Sam is that this $ does not keep coming in. For instance, foreign central banks and private investors [it is said that "overseas Chinese" have a tidy trillion $] could any day decide to place more of their money elsewhere than in the declining $ and abandon poor ol' Uncle Sam to his destiny. China could double its per capita income very quickly if it made real investments at home instead of financial ones with Uncle Sam. Indeed Henry G.K. Liu writes, albeit a bit unrealistically that "if the US$430 of Chinese exports were consumed domestically at their final market price, US$2.15 trillion would be added to China's 2003 GDP of $1 trillion, tripling it" [http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/a-list/2004w07].

DUMP UNCLE SAM $ FOR EURO AND EAST ASIAN COMMUNITY CURRENCY ?

Central banks, European and others, can now put their reserves - in rising! - Euros or even soon to be revalued Chinese Yuan. Not so far down the road, there may be an East Asian currency, e.g. a basket first of ASEAN + 3 [China, Japan, Korea] - and then + 4 India. While India's total exports in the past five years rose by 73 percent, those to ASEAN rose double that rate and six-fold to China. India has become an ASEAN summit partner, its Prime Minister just declared that India wants ever closer relations with ASEAN, and its ambitions stretch still further to an AEC from India to Japan [EPW]. Not for nothing, in the 1997 East Asian currency and then full economic crisis, Uncle Sam strong-armed Japan not to start a proposed East Asian currency fund that would have prevented at least the worst of the economic crisis. But now, the indeed Uncle Sam friend in need China is already taking steps toward such an arrangement, only on a much grander financial and now also economic scale.

A day after writing the above, I read in the Economist [11-17 Dec. 2004:50] a report on the previous week's summit meeting of Asean+3 in Malaysia. Its Prime Minister announced that this summit should lay the groundwork for an East Asian Community ( EAC) that "should build a free-trade area, co-operate on finance, and sign a security pact . that would transform East Asia into a cohesive economic block.. In fact, some of these schemes are already in motion..China, as the region's pre-eminent economic and military power will doubtless dominate. and host the second East Asia Summit." The report goes on to recall that in 1990, Uncle Sam shot down a previous initiative for fear of losing influence in the region. Now the report is entitled "Yankee stay home."

Or what if already long before that comes to pass, exporters of oil simply cease to price it in ever devaluing $, and instead make a mint by switching to the rising Euro and/or a basket of East Asian currencies. For that would at one stroke, in order still to be able to buy oil, vastly diminish the world demand for and price of $ by obliging anyone who wants to buy oil to purchase and increase the demand price of the Euro or Yen/Yuan instead of $. That would crash $ and tumble Uncle Sam in one fell swoop, as foreign and even domestic owners of $ would also sell off as many of them as fast as they could and other countries' central banks would switch their reserves out of $ in the no longer safe haven Uncle Sam. That would drive the $ down even more, and of course halt any more $ inflow to Uncle Sam by the foreigners who have been financing the Uncle Sam consumption spree. Since selling oil for falling $ instead of rising Euro is evidently bad business, the world's largest exporters in Russia and OPEC have been considering actually doing just that. In the meantime, they have raised the $ price of oil so that in Euro terms it has remained about stable since 2000. So far, many oil exporters and others still place their increased amount of $ with Uncle Sam, even though he now offers an ever less attractive and less safe haven, but Russia is now buying more Euros with some of its $.

So, many countries' central banks have begun to put ever more of their reserves into the Euro and currencies other than Uncle Sam $. Now even the best friend indeed, the Central Bank of China, the greatest friend of Uncle Sam in need, has begun to buy some Euros. China itself has also begun to use some of its $ - as long as they are still accepted by them - to buy real goods from other Asians and thousands of tons of iron ore and steel from Brazil, etc. Its President recently took a huge business delegation to China, and the Chinese one just went to Argentina. They are going after African oil and South African minerals too.

UNCLE SAM AND HIS OWN ECONOMY ARE A REAL HOLLOW DOUGHNUT

All Ponzi schemes build a financial pyramid. Many who pay into them also live in a financial world themselves, but others need to derive their in-payment through earnings from production in the real world. In today's world of financial transactions that every day are one hundred fold more than all payments for real goods and services put together, the financial ones put the real ones into the shadow behind their brilliance. Moreover to over-simplify a very complex matter into more intelligible lay wo/man's language, options, derivatives, swaps and other recent financial instruments have been ever much further compounding already compounded interest on the real properties in which their stake and debts are based, which has contributed to the spectacular growth of this financial world. Nonetheless, the financial pyramid that we see in all its splendor and brilliance, especially in its center at Uncle Sam's home, still sits on top of a real world producer ] merchant ] consumer base, even if the financial one also provides credit for these real world transactions.

Now what if we look at the world as a doughnut, analogous to so many cities in Uncle Sam rust belt. The center is derelict and hollowed out as production and consumption has moved to the surrounding suburbs [in automobile Detroit, the windows of the principal department store Hudson's have been boarded up for years, even as Detroit has built an expensive "Renaissance Center" to re-gentrify it's city center, a process that has ''succeeded'' in some other cities]. Derelict General Motors Flint gives us Michael Moore, who features it from [GM CEO] "Roger and Me" to 'Fahrenheit 9-11." We might look at the entire world in doughnut terms, with the whole of Uncle Sam in the empty hole in the middle that produces almost nothing it can sell abroad. The main exceptions are agricultural goods and military hardware that are heavily subsidized by the Uncle Sam government from its tax-payers and $ paper printing press, and even so he runs a $ 600 +B budged deficit.

The BIG difference in this Uncle Sam doughnut is that both the budget and the $ 600+B trade deficit are financed by foreigners, as we have seen. Uncle Sam would exclude most of them as persons, but gladly receives the real goods they produce. As world consumer of last resort, as already suggested, Uncle Sam performs this important function in the present world political economic division of labor: everybody else produces and needs to export, and Uncle Sam consumes and needs to import.

The crash of $ would [will?] crumble this entire world-embracing and organizing political economic doughnut and throw hundreds of millions of people, not to mention zillions of $ and their owners, into turmoil with unforeseen and perhaps unforeseeable consequences. Many people, high and low on the world totem pole, have a BIG stake in avoiding that, even if it requires continuing to blow the empty Uncle Sam up like a balloon. Or to refer to a well know simile, to continue to pretend that the Emperor with no Clothes is dressed up and to send him some to boot. That still includes China, for which a financial show down with Uncle Sam would be a blessing in disguise: That would oblige China to change political economic course, and instead of giving its goods away for free to Uncle Sam, to turn production and consumption inward to its poor interior and to the near outward in East Asia, all of which it could and should be doing already; and the latter China has recently begun to do, but not yet the former.

So what will happen to the rich on top of the Uncle Sam Ponzi scheme, when the confidence of poorer central banks and oil exporters in the middle runs out, and the more destitute poorest around the world, confident or not, can no longer make their in - payments at the bottom? The Uncle Sam Ponzi Scheme Confidence Racket would - or will? - come crashing down, like all other such schemes before, only this time with a world-wide bang. It would cut the world's present Uncle Sam consumer demand of last resort down to real/istic world size and hurt many exporters and producers elsewhere in the world. In fact, it may involve a wholesale fundamental reorganization of the world political economy now run by Uncle Sam.

THE UNCLE SAM PAPER $ TIGER POSES A MAD GEO-POLITICAL CATCH 22

Of course, crashing the $ would also in one fell swoop wipe out, that is default, the Uncle Sam debt altogether. Thereby, it would simultaneously also make all foreigners and rich Americans lose the whole of their $ asset shirt. They are still desperately trying to save as much of it as possible by not going for the crash, that is for broke. That is, they are trying to protect the remainder of their $ investment shirt by keeping their $ live sustaining pump going. The whole business of maintaining the Uncle Sam Ponzi Scheme poses the world's biggest and craziest Catch - 22 since MAD, and it is just about as mad.

All the more reason why it MUST be resolved. But the way out of the mad Catch 22 need not be a soft landing. It can be hard one indeed. This dissolution of the Uncle Sam Ponzi Scheme will be costly and the greatest costs will as usual probably be dumped on the poorest who are least able to bear these costs, but who are also least able to protect themselves from being forced to do so. And the historically necessary transition out from under the Uncle Sam run doughnut world can bring the entire world into the deepest depression ever. Only East Asia is in a relatively good position to save itself from being pulled - or pushed - to the bottom, but even then also after paying a high cost for this transition - toward itself!

However, the world is facing an even MADer global geo political and military Catch 22.

It remains the great unknown and perhaps unknowable. How would [will?] Uncle Sam react as a Paper [money] Tiger that is wounded by a crash of the Ponzi Scheme Confidence Racket from which he and millions of un-knowing Uncle Sammies have lived the good life? To compensate for less bread and civil rights but more "Patriot"ic acts at home, a more chauvinist Uncle Sam can provide a World War III circus abroad. A crash of $ will pull the financial rug out from under, and his discourage his foreign victims from continuing to pay for new Pentagon adventures abroad. But some more wars may still be possible with the weapons he would still have and some more Military Keyensian government deficit spending at home, also for the new ''small'' nukes he is preparing for the occasion. That could well - nay horribly - be the cost to the world of the current policies to ''defend Freedom and Civilization." The Super Catch 22 is that almost nobody other than Osama bin Laden wants to run that risk.

Yet, such a transition would [will?] not be historically new. Recall how much the transition to Uncle Sam cost: a 30 Year War from 1914 to 1945 with the intervening second Great Depression in a century that cost 100 million lives lost to war, more than in all previous world history combined, not to mention the litterally [hundreds?] of millions who suffered and died from unnecessary starvation and disease. Or the previous transition to the British Major Bull cost the Napoleonic Wars, the Great Depression of 1873-95, colonialism and semi-colonialism, to name a few, and their human costs. The latter coincided with the most pronounced El Niño climatic changes in two centuries, which ravaged Indians, Chinese, and many others with famines. But these were in turn magnified by the Imperial Colonial powers who used in their own interests, e.g. increased export of wheat from India especially during years of famine.

The parallels with today, including even again taking advantage of a century later renewed stronger El Niños are too horrifying and guilt generating for hardly anybody to make. They include Uncle Sam's IMF imposed ''structural adjustment" that obliges Mexican peasants to have already eaten the belt that the IMF wants them to tighten still further. Three million dead and still counting in Rwanda and Burundi, and then some in neighboring Congo, came after IMF imposed strictures and the cancellation primarily by Uncle Sam of the Coffee Agreement that had sustained its price for these producers. And now - nay since the CIA murder of Lumumba and the elevation of Kosavubu in Katanga in 1961, indeed since the King of Belgium's private reserve of the Congo in the 19th century, we get the scramble for and production and sale there of gold for Uncle Sam's Fort Knox, and now also titanium so that we can communicate by mobile cell phone, diamonds for ever, and so on. Uncle Sam also took advantage of yet another strong El Niño event that ravaged South East Asia, and especially Indonesia, simultaneously with the post 1997 financial crisis that Uncle Sam deliberately parlayed into an economic depression. It was so great that it swept out of office President Suharto whom Uncle Sam had installed there thirty years earlier with his CIA coup against the popular father of Indonesian independence, Sukarno. That had cost at least half a million but also an estimated up to one million lives that Suhartu took directly plus the poverty generated by the infamous "Berkely Mafia" that he installed to run the Indonesian economy into the ground. The parallels with the past also include environmental degradation, and the shift of ecological damage from the rich who generate it to the poor Third World who bears its greatest burden. And of course we should not forget World War III [the third after the second AND fought in the Third World] that Daddy Bush began against Iraq in 1991 [See my "Third World War" http://rrojasdatabank.info/agfrank/gulf_war.html
http://rrojasdatabank.info/agfrank/nato_kosovo/msg00080.html].

Yet there are also others in the world who do not [yet? ] feel all that caught up in the Catch 22. Calculatedly just before this year's 2004 Uncle Sam election, one of them said so out loud in a video broadcast to the world. It seems to have been least publicly noted by its principal addressee Uncle Sam, who should have been the most interested party: For it was none other than bin Laden himself who announced that he is ''going to bankrupt the Uncle Sam! '' In view of the deliberate Uncle Sam blindness to the shakiness of his real world foundation abroad, so massive a collapse abroad may not be more difficult to arrange than as it was only to topple its Twin Tower symbol at home.

THE PENTAGON IS THE WORLD'S LARGEST PLANNED ECONOMY - TO REDISTRIBUTE INCOME FROM POOR TO RICH AT HOME AND ABROAD TO BLACKMAIL FRIEND AND FOE TO DO THE SAME

Meantime back on the farm as the saying goes in Texas, what does Uncle Sam himself blithely do with the world's hard earned savings and money? His consumers still over-consume it without 99. 9 percent of them knowing what they are doing, since hardly anyone tells them so. And Uncle Sam's government uses much and all of its increase of hundreds of B$ for the Pentagon. That money is not spent to pay its poor professional soldiers who come mostly from small town rural America and took the only job they could get, and even less is spent on its hapless reservists. They told Rummy in Kuwait that he does not even provide them with sufficient and safe equipment. Rummy replied, I am an old man, I just got up, and I need time to get my thoughts together.

But at home in the Pentagon, Rummy faces no such problem. There he knows very well what he is doing, privatizing war also in Iraq as at home. The Military-Industrial Complex against which General Eisenhower warned in his 1958 parting Presidential address is alive and kicking, more than ever under the stewardship of "Vice" President Cheney and his De[a]fSec Rumsfeld. With their jobs disasterously well done, both are being kept on for a second term. So is Paul Wolfowitz "of Arabia" who with Douglas Feith is one of the duo at the Pentagon that went to Israel. Regarding the latter, the German Der Spiegel Dec 20,2004:33 quotes Tommy Franks, who was the commander of the Iraq invasion, as calling "the greatest total idiot that there is on God's Earth, with whom I have to battle almost every day"].

Between 1994 and mid - 2003, Uncle Sam's Pentagon made over 3,000 contracts valued at more than $300 billion with 12 Uncle Sam private military companies [PMCs] out of the 35 estimated by the NYT, others of which are small and offer mercenary services. But more than 2,700 of those contracts were given to only two companies: to Kellogg Brown & Root (KBR), a subsidiary of Cheney's Halliburton, and to Booz Allen Hamilton. [Center for Public Integrity's International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, cited in Mafruza Khan e-mail, 16 Aug 2003]. In Iraq these PMCs now have as many mercenaries as Uncle Sam and UK troops combined. But of course that is still ''small'' potatoes, since the bulk of Pentagon money is Uncle Sam-ed to buy expensive weapons systems from the only four major Uncle Sam ''Defense" contractors and the likes of Vice President Cheney's Halliburton. Uncle Sam then uses these arms unilaterally to twist others arms by armed threat and blackmail, and if that is not enough to invade the world that provided the money in the first place. After all, Uncle Sam has to do what it must to keep the money coming in.

TO CARRY THE ''WHITE MAN'S BURDEN" TO DEFEND HIS ''CIVILIZATION" THE LAW OF THE WEST IS THE SPAGHETTI WESTERN POSSE VIGILANTE LAW

Uncle Sam unilateralism is not so much , as often mistakenly supposed, just going it alone. Yes, it is to proclaim fighting for ''Freedom" [whose?- we may ask] and "saving Civilization," as Uncle Sam President Bush and his even more eloquent UK mouth piece Tony Blair proclaim every day. The simplest way to ''save'' civilization was by simply abolishing in a day its most precious gift of the whole body of international law to keep the peace, which the West had taken centuries to develop, admittedly also in its own imperial interests. Still, it was the best and only international law we had, and at the very least better than nothing at all. Now the only "Law of the West" that remains is indeed 'The law of the West': The spaghetti western vigilante law of posses that, with or without a conniving judge, take the 'law' into their own hands to form a lynch party. Then they go after whom and where and when they please. Alas, now in the real world the self- appointed posses operate "out of area" on a much grander scale than any fictional spaghetti western film could ever have imagined.

That also means disemboweling and paralyzing the UN institution that was established to guard the peace, except when Uncle Sam after its own wars always re-cycles the UN to pick up the pieces he shattered in Yugoslavia, Afghanistan and now Iraq. But in so doing, it also means, to dupe, threaten, cajole and blackmail all others - friends and foes alike - to do his bidding on every issue, big and small. He has trained a whole civilian army of officials to do that. That way, Uncle Sam ''unilaterally'' throws his still apparent weight around in all other international institutions that deal with endeavors from agriculture and aviation to zoology. But Uncle Sam extorts real unilateral favors for himself even more through his bi-lateral relations. That is why WTO was dead on arrival. Indeed Uncle Sam now prefers to Uncle Same bi-lateral relations unilaterally, as he increasingly isolates himself internationally. So, he can exercise even more military, political and economic bargaining power over any one of his victims than he any longer can over all or even many of them in international institutions.

UNCLE SAM'S PROUD MARCH FROM THE HALLS OF MONTEZUMA TO THE SHORES OF TRIPOLI - ON TO PANAMA,TWICE TO IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN,

And when that bargaining is not enough, or even if it could be, Uncle Sam simply attacks when he feels like it and invades little Grenada [population, all of 300,000]; Nicaragua [with the help of arch-enemy Iran]; Panama [7,000 civilians killed in one night to capture one man only, Daddy Bush's one-time friend and ally Noriega - there is an all smiles photo of them shaking hands]; Iraq in 1991 [that was even a money making venture as Uncle Sam extorted more $ from his allies to pay for the war than it actually cost him! But Iraq was contaminated by Uncle Sam's depleted uranium, which has multiplied birth defect there - and which caused the infamous "Gulf War syndrome" among his and British troops, which Uncle Sam denies and refuses to acknowledge]. The less said about Somalia the better. Yugoslavia was attacked in part to make an example out of what can happen when a state is weak enough and, yet in abject defiance of Uncle Sam and his IMF, maintains some state ownership of important means of production and still provides social welfare state protection to the population. That is like still Belorus today, where Uncle Sam also tried to get ''regime change," but military action is more difficult on the border of Russia, unless it is in accord as against Afghanistan or is bought off. Moreover, Yugoslavia only gave up in 1999 after Russia withdrew its support from it; because Uncle Sam successfully used political economic blackmail and partly bought it off in Berlin.

Then Afghanistan became a targeted victim, again with the help of Iran and Russia. That is after Uncle Sam created and sponsored the Taliban government that eradicated opium. But the ''liberated" Afghanistan now grows opium again even more that before Taliban eradicated it so that opium now accounts for one third of Afghanistan's GDP, according to the new announcement upon taking office by the new President who was installed by Uncle Sam. At the same time as I write, Uncle Sam is launching a renewed military offensive against Taliban; but there is no more mention of bin Laden. And now innocent Iraq is already the Uncle Sam target and victim again, of which more below. Whos'e next, Iran?, Syria? - not Libya, it is now obediently making oil deals with Uncle Sam; and not North Korea that made nukes to protect itself against precisely that.

Sorry, I neglected to mention two additional perhaps possible alternatives prior to invasion. One is of course sponsoring, organizing, or even making a military or otherwise coup d' etat of which the CIA has a proud record,: Iran in 1953, Guatemala in 1954, Congo in 1960, Vietnam in 1961, Brazil in 1964, Guyana in 1964, Indonesia in 1964-65, Dominican Republic in 1965, Ghana in 1966, Greece in 1967, Cambodia in 1970, Chile in 1973, Argentina in 1976, Bolivia again and again, Fiji in 1987, Nicaragua in 1990 by "election" under threat of continuing the Contras war, Haiti again and again - against the ex-puppet Uncle Sam put there in the first place, just to name a few of the better known ones [of course not at the Uncle Sam home].

Another alternative is better known and attempted several times against on Fidel Castro in Cuba with explosive cigars and other imaginative CIA ''dirty tricks," all of which have been unsuccessful. So was the bombing of Cornel Ghadafi's tent home that killed his daughter. But our good Mr. Perkins relates a successful CIA attempt:

The Japanese wanted to finance and construct a sea-level canal in Panama.
[It's President Omar] Torrijos talked to them about this which very much upset Bechtel Corporation, whose president was George Schultz and senior council was Casper Weinberger. When Carter was thrown out (and that's an interesting story-how that actually happened), when he lost the election, and Reagan came in and Schultz came in as Secretary of State from Bechtel, and Weinberger came from Bechtel to be Secretary of Defense, they were extremely angry at Torrijos -- tried to get him to renegotiate the Canal Treaty and not to talk to the Japanese. He adamantly refused. He was a very principled man. He had his problem, but he was a very principled man. He was an amazing man, Torrijos. And so, he died in a fiery airplane crash, which was connected to a tape recorder with explosives in it, which -- I was there. I had been working with him. I knew that we economic hit men had failed. I knew the jackals were closing in on him, and the next thing, his plane exploded with a tape recorder with a bomb in it. There's no question in my mind that it was C.I.A. sanctioned, and most -- many Latin American investigators have come to the same conclusion. Of course, we never heard about that in our country. (http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=04/11/09/1526251)

Torrijos had previously signed a treaty with President Cater handing over the Panama Canal to - Panama!

Simple inspection also reveals that being too good a political friend or tool of Uncle Sam can also be just about the riskiest, that is foolish, thing any statesman can do; for it can easily spell his political or physical death sentence after Uncle Sam stabs him in the back. A successor of Torrijos, as we noted, is now sitting in an Uncle Sam jail after loyally serving and smiling in a photo with George Bush [father]. But the line is long and goes all the way around the world starting in the 1950s and 1960s: Rhee in Korea, Diem in Vietnam, Trujillo in the Dominican Republic, Somoza in Nicaragua, virtually everybody in Haiti from Papa and Baby Doc to the priest Aristide installed by Clinton and removed by Bush, the Shah of Iran - put there after the 1953 CIA coup against Mossadeq after he had nationalized Irani oil but was let go when his usefulness faded, as was Mobutu after three decades in Zaire, Saddam Hussein - Rummy himself went to see him twice in his already previous incarnation as Secretary of Defense, Yugoslavia's Milosevic - he was the necessary and reliable implementor of the Uncle Sam Dayton agreement in Bosnia, and of course the Taliban - Uncle Sam himself formed and put it in charge of Afghanistan, not to mention one Osama bin Laden - he also served Uncle Sam there.

[Not?] incidentally, simple inspection of the facts on the ground also reveals that, if the above ''lines of defense" fail and Uncle Sam goes to war, except for little Grenada, not a single one of these or any other Uncle Sam wars was ever won by his military force, unless it be the Pacific one against Japan. World War II was won in Europe at Stalingrad in 1943 by Russian troops who would have reached Berlin even if Uncle Sam had not arrived later]. The Korean War was and remains a stalemate. The War against Vietnam was lost. The War against Yugoslavia was ''won" only when the Russians withdrew their support, and then all but seven Yugoslav tanks and all of its planes left Kosovo unharmed. Only its and Yugoslavia's civilian infrastructure had been bombed to smithereens, and its and the wider Balkan landscape was polluted for eons by Uncle Sam's renewed use of depleted uranium. The War against Afghanistan is being lost, and so is the War against Iraq, despite the reported use once again of depleted uranium, also again of napalm as in Vietnam and even of gas.

UNCLE SAM'S GEO-POLITICAL MUSLIMS AND OIL "MIDDLE EASTERN" PLAN FROM CASABLANCA TO JAKARTA

Nonetheless, Uncle Sam has plenty other geo- political economic military plans going again. For starters, he has already built 800 military bases around the world and especially in the oil rich ''heartland'' of Zbigniew Brzezinski [Ziggy's] global ''Chessboard" and to surround China. The Pentagon is also to redeploy 60 percent of U.S. Submarine fleet to Western Pacific [according to a P. Jakob Förg j.foerg@msc-salzburg.at December 12 e-mail] All that is for future use but also already present political influence. Apart from that, Uncle Sam President Bush has a new "Plan for the Middle East," which now stretches from Morocco beyond Pakistan - to Muslim Indonesia? Just what this plan involves is not yet clear, but civil society is already paving the way as well: Yale University Press already lists Pakistan among its "Middle Eastern" Studies, and Swissair has a paper place mat that places Karachi, Delhi and Mumbai on its ''Middle Eastern" destinations. What is clear is that Israel is to remain the Uncle Sam political and military stalking horse in the region that it has always been. Never mind whether Republicans or Democrats rule in Washington, Israel's hunting dog like role for Uncle Sam in its oil rich area of operation remains, and so does the security Israel in turn enjoys from Uncle Sam's international diplomatic, political and military protection no matter what, as well as Uncle Sam's direct economic and military support without which of Israel could not exist. Only now, Israel's assigned and self-appointed regional reach may expand even further as the two above mentioned high placed Pentagon neo-cons even went there to make a plan for the racist chauvinist Likud party now in power. And Bush himself went to Africa, especially West Africa to look at its oil.

In the Americas, his Plan "Colombia" [it has oil too] has been extended to the whole Andean region [Ecuador also exports oil], he has yet another plan for the Amazon [maybe some oil is to be found there and in the meantime he built a huge base there, allegedly for NASA which is not unknown to engage in military ventures], a plan to ''take care of " with World Bank help the world's largest underground deposit of sweet water under Iguazu Falls, where Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay meet, and he is already again training 40,000 Latin American military personnel at a time on Uncle Sam bases at home, of which he has another half dozen beyond his shores as well.

Just recently Rummy went to Ecuador to meet with, lay out his plans for, and reportedly cajole, his counterpart assembled ''Defense" Ministers form all the Latin American countries.

All this is a giant global military political economic foundation on which to maintain Uncle Sam's financial Ponzi Scheme Confidence Racket, and cheap at twice the price for those that end up with the $ as long as he can pay for it all with the self-made paper $ that so far also maintains the global Ponzi business. Well to be honest, it's not only for the $. After all that is only useful if you can actually buy something with it, especially the oil that keeps the foundation running.

Not only does Uncle Sam have to buy ever more oil, today with self-printed $, but perhaps tomorrow with Euros or Yuan. He also has to try to make sure to have his hand on every spigot; so he can control who else can, and especially who can not buy it. So that is why we now find him attempting political and financial $ control of the oil spigots, wherever he still can, and for establishing a military presence as in Central Asia, or Uncle Sam-ing military power to go in as to Iraq. That is both to use it as a lever of control and/or to warn its neighbors what may happen to them if they fail to continue to play along with Uncle Sam. Fortunately for him, most of East Asia and especially China also seem to be obliged to buy foreign oil, even if tomorrow perhaps no longer with $ but with Yuan/Yen. On the other hand sad but true, the world's biggest seller of oil is Russia, whose spigots remain beyond Uncle Sam control. But how could Uncle Sam continue to pay for and maintain all these bold Uncle Sam ventures in Defense of Freedom with that self made paper $ -- if nobody accepts it any more? And why should anybody ?

UNCLE SAM'S GRAND CAUSE FOR IRAQ; GIVE ITS $ 30B TO HALLIBURTON et al

The December 10 FT offers some additional tip of the iceberg examples of Uncle Sam Defense of Freedom in Iraq. Though poor Iraq sits on top of the world's largest still unexploited pool of ever more precious oil, it remains in the background or only at the bottom of this story that barely mentions it and, like the present essay, focuses instead on related $ and Uncle Sam. In two different reports, it relates how three helicopters flew 14 tons of $ 100 dollar bills in to the Kurds, who long since have been an Uncle Sam Fifth Column in the area. The money, much of the $ 1.8B Uncle Sam pay-off to the Kurds, was part of Iraq's earnings in the UN ''oil-for-food" fund. Initially, of course, the bills simply were the product of the self-same Uncle Sam printing press, for which Iraq had exported real oil. It did not come from the $ 18B that Uncle Sam's Congress appropriated for 'reconstruction' of Iraq. As an FT graph graphically shows, no more than $ 388 million - or 2.15 percent - of that Uncle Sam money had yet been spent, and only $ 5B of it had even been budgeted by Uncle Sam in Iraq by the time Uncle Sam pro-consul Brenner went home with a job well done. No, instead in his wisdom the Good Uncle had thought it best to have spent $13B of the $ 20B of Iraqi funds. That was 65 percent of the Iraqi money compared to the still only 2 percent of the nearly equivalent amount of original Uncle Sam money. By the time the new Iraqi government took over some tasks from Uncle Sam who put them there, they discovered that a full $ 20B of their funds had been spent, $ 11B from sales of oil [IHT]. How come? - we may ask. So simple is the answer of the ''responsible'' finance officer, Uncle Sam Admiral Oliver, "I know we spent some money from [the Iraqi] fund. It was purely the matter that we'd run out of Uncle Sam money" - of which there was only another $ 17.5+B unspent. We might wonder whether the good General was schooled in Clausewitz on war and happened to discover his good advice about making the conquered victim pay for his own military occupation, in this case by Uncle Sam,

The Iraqi representative on the funding disbursement and oversight committee attended only one of its 43 meetings; but why bather with more, when most expenditures were authorized without any meeting at all. So although Uncle Sam funds were budgeted for all sorts of projects, they were nonetheless paid out of Iraqi funds. Of these, many disbursements were even made without any contract whatsoever, in one case a mere $ 1.4B. Most others occurred without any multiple competitive, nor otherwise open bids. The Uncle Sam funds, on the other hand, remained virtually unspent in Iraq. Maybe Admiral Oliver had ''run out of Uncle Sam money" in Iraq, because it remained with Uncle Sam at home in Washington; and if disbursed at all, it simply changed hands and bank accounts right there. After all, that is much more efficient than it would be to send it back and forth, and a bit of it might not even get back. Moreover also, it has long since been SOP for the bulk of the $ that Uncle Sam lends or even "gives" "to" and ''for" all Third World countries, just to leave the $ at home where it belongs and would return to anyway. No matter; Uncle Sam Congress has already appropriated another $ 30B to ''prepare for transition to elections" in Iraq in January 2005.

All that being the case, it would of course be altogether undesirable for Iraqi, let alone Uncle Sam's, funds to be squandered on any Iraqi service of old foreign debt to others. So it was only logical to strong-arm ''allies'' who can't help already losing Uncle Sam debt to them, also to forgive the Iraqi debt. That is, as we may recall from above, while Uncle Sam still insists that the rest of the Third World must continue servicing their debts to him! For God forbid that any re-payment of Iraqi debt should go instead to those un-Godly Russians, traitorous Frenchmen or even to the Chinese best friend indeed, who most invested in Iraq, a dastardly thing to do in the first place, when Uncle Sam has much more worthy causes for the Iraqi money.

And what are these grander worthy Uncle Sam causes?, we may ask. The largest single payment of $ 1.4B was of course to the self-same Vice President Cheney's Halliburton. Yet we now know that at the same time it was also cheating even his generous Uncle Sam benefactor out of hundreds of millions more $ on the side, buying petrol for x $ in Kuwait and selling it in Iraq for 5 -10x $ and other sly frauds. Altogether, Halliburton got Iraq contracts for a cool $ 10B - plus change. [IHT]. [Cheney also has an interest in UNOCAL that has long wanted to build an oil pipe line from Central Asia to the Indian Ocean through Afghanistan, first with the help of Taliban whom Uncle Sam had put in charge there for precisely that purpose and then invited to Texas for talks while they still seemed to be doing their assigned job. Indeed, they also visited the purely Afghanistan ''academic research'' outfit at the University of Nebraska in Omaha. But alas, Taliban was not up to their assigned task of keeping order for the construction of the pipe line, and so had to go. Now Uncle Sam and UNOCAL will instead use the good offices of the new Afghani President and Uncle Sam Ambassador there, both of whom just ''happen'' to be former [?] UNOCAL people].

UNCLE SAM'S "MEDAL OF FREEDOM" FOR BRENNER, FRANKS, TENENT - FOR A JOB WELL DONE ROBBING IRAQ FOR THE BENEFIT OF CHENEY et al

Without the shadow of a doubt, most of the other abundant Iraqi and so far sparse Uncle Sam $ that was spent in Iraq went to other Uncle Sam crony, with some crumbs off the table for UK, corporations and even to private and military individuals who have their fingers in the till. Alas, we will never know who they all are; since, as per Uncle Sam's Inspector-General, "I was, candidly, not interested in having army auditors because I thought we had to slide into the Iraqi system as quickly as possible." Frankly being both non and anti-military, I have not myself read Clausewitz. So I do not know what, if any, good advice he gives about relying on corruption as the first principle in cutting and dividing up the conquered pie.

All of the above ''speculation'' of mine was written before the UN International Advisory and Monitoring Board for Development in Iraq IAMBDI just issued a report on its findings about the Uncle Sam stewardship. Before we get to the Report, we should keep in mind that the FT observes diplomatically "the UN has been reluctant to take Uncle Sam to task publicly over its spending of Iraqi funds." The FT quotes directly from the Report: "There were control weaknesses . inadequate accounting systems, uneven application of agreed-upon contracting procedures and inadequate record keeping." The IHT also makes its own summary of the same report: "There had been widespread irregularities, including financial mismanagement, a failure to cut smuggling [outward of oil and other Iraqi physical property; nobody knows at what price and to whose benefit] and over dependence on no-bid contracts" [IHT]. The FT, for its part, offers a bit more specifics from the Report: "Of particular concern . were contracts with sometimes billions of dollars that were awarded to Uncle Sam companies such as Halliburton from Iraqi funds without competitive tender." Yesterday, Uncle Sam President Bush gave Uncle Sam's highest civilian award, The Medal of Freedom, to L. Paul Bremer III, the Uncle Sam civilian pro-consul who oversaw it all, and to General Tommy Franks, who led the invasion that made it all possible in the first place. George Tenet, the Director of the CIA that provided all the bogus Uncle Sam information to ''legitimatize'' the whole enterprise to begin with and who has since been discredited and forced to resign was not forgotten either and received the third award. The IHT published a ceremonial photograph of the three all smiles with George W. who was smiling too. After all it's due recognition for a job well done, thank youWe may rest assured that those who in their service to "Freedom" [for whom and what? we may ask],

IN CONCLUSION:
UNCLE GEORGE W. SAM SAYS ITS ONLY RIGHT FOR OUR BOYS TO LAY THEIR LIVES ON THE LINE TO PROTECT FREEDOM FOR HALLIBURTON TO ROB IRAQ

We may rest assured that others who had hands in the till and trough were among those whom, we may recall, the Fed's Dr. Greenspan labeled as the upper 20 percent of Uncle Sam's income earners. They are the most privileged over-consumers, who are totally [ir]responsible for the Uncle Sam under-saving, he said, and also for the growing trade deficit about which the Dr. recently complained in Berlin. If we examine the Uncle Sam income distribution a bit further, we may well learn that among these 20 percent, the lion's share of this $, like most of that from the Pentagon, ends up in the pockets of the upper 2 percent most super-privileged, so they can over-consume still more of the fat of the earth. Who would deny them that this is surely a worthy cause for the protection of Freedom at any price. That includes President Bush's [in]famous invitation to the Iraqis ''let them come on" against Uncle Sam. It is difficult to understand the President when he encourages the Iraqis ''to come'' when they are already at home in Iraq and it is Uncle Sam who sent his troops there. But maybe Faluja explains what President Bush had in mind about the Iraqis ''coming'' our against Uncle Sam. But as Uncle Sam's President Bush himself told the world, it is only right that ''we'' exclude other countries from the trough and till in Iraq. After all he explained when the Iraqis accepted his invitation, it was ''our boys who put their lives on the line." I wish the personification of Uncle Sam had also explained for what and for whom.

+ The few numbers that are not generally available, or from the cited FT of December 10 and 15, 2004 and other sources like the International Herald Tribune [IHT] also of December 15 and EPW, Economic and Political Weekly,[ Mumbai Dec. 4,2004: 5189] are from "The Economics of Uncle Sam Imperialism at the turn of the 21st Century" by Gerard Dumenil & Dominique Levy in Review of International Political Economy 11/4/Oct. 2004:657-676. The author is thankful to them in Paris, to Jeffrey Sommers in Riga, William Engdahl in Frankfurt and Mark Weisbrot in Washington for their useful and much Uncle used comments. Barry Gills in Newcastle insisted that I refer only to Uncle Sam and proposed the world division of labor between Uncle Sam consumers and producers everywhere else and referred me to Clausewitz. Readers will be most grateful to Arlene Hohnstock for having rendered all this tale readable. Of course none of them have any responsibility for the doughnut shaped use I have made of them. Much more of my - through the eyes of that little boy - observations can be found on my web site at http://www.rojasdatabank.info/agfrank and in regard to Uncle Sam et al within it especially in the sections

Gold’s bull run could reach $850

FT.com / Markets / Commodities - Gold’s bull run could reach $850: "The current bull run for gold could push prices above the 1980 record high of $850 a troy ounce, according to the Gold Survey 2006 from GFMS, the precious metals consultancy.
“Levels safely over $600 are now in our sights and further hefty gains over the next year or two are quite possible - in the right circumstances, the 1980 high of $850 could even be taken out,” said Philip Klapwijk of GFMS.
Gold is benefiting from a general rise in investor interest in commodities both for speculative purposes and as an alternative asset to equities, bonds and cash.
The success associated with investing in gold since 2001 is attracting new players, such as pension funds, and could bring a significant increase in new investment flows into a comparatively small market.
Investment flows are expected to be sustained by the the high probability of a sharp slowdown in US economic growth while greater global inflationary pressures and political tensions in the Middle East are also expected to be supportive factors.
A major surprise in the GFMS survey was a 100 tonne increase in jewellery demand last year. The survey found that this strength was confined to the first half of last year when demand rose 218 tonnes and there was a marked decline of 119 tonnes in jewellery demand in the second half. India alone saw jewellery output rise by 11 per cent or 61 tonnes last year.
However, high and volatile prices in the final quarter of last year led to a slump in global jewellery fabrication which fell 18 per cent compared to the same period in 2004. This weakness has continued into 2006 with price sensitive markets especially affected. Turkey, the world’s third largest manufacturer of gol"

The Fundamental Difference

The Fundamental Difference: "There is a factor that makes this gold/silver bull different from the '71 - '81 bull. The difference is very fundamental.
As the price of gold started to rise in the early '70's so gradually, very gradually just like now, people started to become aware of the rise and 'came aboard'. Gradually gold increased in value leading to ever more people investing in the market.
As more and more people started investing in the gold market they at the same time became more and more educated to the fact that the US$ was 'out of whack' and that this was why the price of gold was going up. Awareness increased of the fact that the fall in the US$ value and the rise in the gold price were not independent of each other. As more and more people became aware of the US$ weakness, so the cost of gold in US$ terms was driven ever upwards.
The price of gold has always been the financial equivalent of the canary in the coal-mine. It flags in no uncertain terms the health of any currency that it is measured in. At the moment the canary is singing badly out of tune with Ben Bernanke the new head of the Federal Reserve, who claims that the US economy is on sound footing and that it is full steam ahead.
In the late '70's those in charge of the US$ were pressured by the surging gold market to do something about the perilous state of the US$. Under then new Fed Reserve head Volcker they did. Using unprecedentedly high interest rates the US$ was eventually brought back under control, and the need for gold started to dwindle as the subsequent almost 20-year bear market in gold witnesses.
In 2006 we have the same problem. The gold bull is now almost six years old and more people are becoming aware that it is something wrong with the US$ that is causing the price of gold to surge. Once again we need the Federal Reserve to correct t"

Silver importers fail to cash in on price boom- The Economic Times

Silver importers fail to cash in on price boom- The Economic Times: "AHMEDABAD: It’s nothing short of an irony in the silver trade. When silver trade is relishing the booming price and a growing demand of the white metal at the retail level, importers who placed big import orders last year are left with huge inventories following the release of cheaper silver from the government mint in November last year.

Many importers are now resorting to re-export — selling back to the overseas supplier — without making a penny. There’s no silver lining in sight either. Physical delivery of almost half of the government’s quota is yet to be done.

In past two months or so, around 400 tonnes of silver have been re-exported by silver importers, and more re-exports are expected in the next two months. In all, about 600 tonnes of silver is expected to be re-exported.

The government sold silver at Rs 13,000 for a kg even as the international price then was Rs 14,500 for a kg. As a result of the price differential, the silver importers who had placed import orders by then, failed to find buyers and are now exporting it back to their international suppliers.

Two major silver importers, Aryavart Impex in Ahmedabad and MD Overseas in Delhi have re-exported part of their imports in the last 45-60 days.In November, the Centre had decided to release about 1,200 tonnes of silver from its reserves at lower than the international price.

“Though orders for all 1,200 tonnes silver have been placed, physical delivery of only 50% silver has taken place so far,” sources in the industry told ET. MMTC, one of the agencies through which the government has decided to off-load silver, is hoping to complete the physical delivery in the next two months time.

“Only af"

Daily Kos: Bush packs the Federal Reserve

Daily Kos: Bush packs the Federal Reserve: "So how does this relate to Bush?
The Federal Reserve has more control over the economic future of this country than any other organization other than Congress. Bush has now packed the Fed with politically-connected members. With the Fed now packed with 'politically friendly faces', the Fed is now working overtime to push money into the system (despite whatever you may have heard otherwise).
In the short-run this pushes the economy along with massive doses of cheap credit. That is exactly what politicians have always wanted, and Bush is no exception.
In the long-run this will have terrible consequences. Once price inflation becomes dug in its extremely hard to get it out. In the past only deep recessions have cured price inflation.
This is a legacy that will live past Bush's term in office."

futuresource.com |DJ Comex Copper Pre-Open:Up 250 Points As London Prices Rise Futures & Commodities Quotes, Charts, News and Analysis

futuresource.com | Futures & Commodities Quotes, Charts, News and Analysis: "High-grade copper futures in New York are called to open around 250 points
higher on Wednesday, said traders.

In London overnight, three-months copper hit a fresh record high of $6,033 a
metric ton on general nervousness about any further supply woes, said traders
there. A strike continues against the La Caridad mine and London Metal Exchange
warehouse stocks fell again. Also, contacts said, demand out of China remains
good.

Comex May copper followed three-months higher in overnight screen trading,
hitting a contract high for the 11th business day in a row, this time at
$2.7485.

In other markets that have the potential to impact metal in the short term,
the euro is near steady at $1.2145, compared to $1.2141 late Tuesday afternoon.
The New York Board of Trade's U.S. dollar index is down 12 ticks to 89.32.

In screen trading ahead of the pit open, the June S&P 500 futures are up 0.70
point to 1,294.70. May crude is down 10 cents to $68.88 in overnight activity.

The main U.S. economic report due out Wednesday is the February trade deficit
at 8:30 a.m. EDT, forecast to narrow to $67.5 billion from $68.51 billion the
prior month. Weekly U.S. Energy Department inventory data - which can influence
crude and thus metals - is due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

In New York Tuesday, momentum-based buying and a continuing strike against
Grupo Mexico - causing the company to declare a force majeure - enabled May
copper to settle up 125 points to $2.7215 per pound. A contract high of $2.7380
was hit in overnight activity prior to the pit session.

Inventories of copper in London Metal Exchan"

Denuking Iran: Washington calls the kettle black

Denuking Iran, Sojourners Magazine/April 2006: "Convincing Iran to refrain from developing nuclear weapons is an important priority for international peace. The U.S. government is doing the right thing so far in working cooperatively with European countries and international agencies such as the International Atomic Energy Agency and the U.N. Security Council. The crisis should be resolved through diplomacy, not through punitive sanctions or the use of military force. An overly confrontational approach will be counterproductive. Unilateral pre-emption failed in Iraq and will not work here.
There is no immediate danger or need to panic. It will be several years and perhaps as long as a decade before Iran can build atomic weapons. There is ample time to develop an effective strategy to prevent nuclear weaponization. The immediate goal should be to keep Iran within the Non-Proliferation Treaty system so that international inspectors continue to have access to Iranian nuclear facilities and can report on prohibited activities. Negotiations between Iran and Russia may yield an agreement to produce nuclear fuel in Russia under international monitoring, which could help defuse the crisis.
Because Iran falsified earlier nuclear declarations and reneged on previous nonproliferation pledges, the United States and its partners are developing a strategy to increase pressure on the regime. The Security Council may soon begin discussing a “smart sanctions” package that includes an embargo on arms and weapons-related technology, a ban on travel, and the freezing of financial assets of designated Iranian elites.
Experience shows that sanctions work best when they are combined with incentives. The diplomatic strategy should include an engagement process led by the United States. The U.S. alone holds more bargaining cards with Iran tha"

The scientific method | Computing the future | Economist.com

The scientific method | Computing the future | Economist.com: "That claim is not being made lightly. Some 34 of the world's leading biologists, physicists, chemists, Earth scientists and computer scientists, led by Stephen Emmott, of Microsoft Research in Cambridge, Britain, have spent the past eight months trying to understand how future developments in computing science might influence science as a whole. They have concluded, in a report called “Towards 2020 Science”, that computing no longer merely helps scientists with their work. Instead, its concepts, tools and theorems have become integrated into the fabric of science itself. Indeed, computer science produces “an orderly, formal framework and exploratory apparatus for other sciences,” according to George Djorgovski, an astrophysicist at the California Institute of Technology."

Sky’s the limit - Indian Gold Commentary

The Statesman: "Agencies
MUMBAI/HONKONG, April 11: The prices of gold, considered to be investors’ safe haven for ages, zoomed to a new peak of Rs 8,905 per 10 gm in Kolkata on aggressive buying by stockists, sparked by reports that the metal touched a 25-year high by crossing $600 level in overseas markets.
The metal received a booster from strengthening Asian and European bullion markets where it crossed $600 an ounce, influenced by spiralling crude oil prices and weakening dollar against the Euro and other major currencies.
The Kolkata market was the biggest gainer as gold reached an all-time high of Rs 8,905 per 10 gram, recording a gain of Rs 160. In Mumbai, it traded at its highest level of Rs 8,810 per 10 gram, a rise of Rs 105. However, there was no trading in Chennai, as the market was closed for “Mahavir Jayanti”.
The Delhi market, which was closed during the day, witnessed some off-the-market deals gaining Rs 80 at a record high level of Rs 8,850 per 10 gram, a level never seen before, as stockists enlarged their holdings ahead of official opening tomorrow morning.
Gold closed in Hong Kong at $601.60 an ounce, higher by $5.10 an ounce from yesterday’s close of $596.50. It had last hit the $600 mark in 1980. Silver broke the $13 an ounce for the first time in 20 years, buoyed by the expected launch of a silver-backed exchange fund.
The bullion markets were already moving ahead since last week as retail customers’ buying for the coming marriage season has already set in.
Gold is traditionally a safe haven investment during financial instability. Its stock has risen as an alternative to the weak greenback, pressured by fears of increased US military spending in West Asia.
Meanwhile, the dollar fell against both the"

Plugged in: Ready for $262 a barrel oil? - Apr. 11, 2006

Plugged in: Ready for $262 a barrel oil? - Apr. 11, 2006: "To come up with some likely scenarios in the event of an international crisis, his team performed what's known as a regression analysis, extrapolating the numbers from past oil shocks and then using them to calculate what might happen when the supply from an oil-producing country was cut off in six different situations. The fall of the House of Saud seems the most far-fetched of the six possibilities, and it's the one that generates that $262 a barrel.
More realistic -- and therefore more chilling -- would be the scenario where Iran declares an oil embargo a la OPEC in 1973, which Browder thinks could cause oil to double to $131 a barrel. Other outcomes include an embargo by Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez ($111 a barrel), civil war in Nigeria ($98 a barrel), unrest and violence in Algeria ($79 a barrel) and major attacks on infrastructure by the insurgency in Iraq ($88 a barrel)."

Poll Finds Bush Job Rating at New Low

Poll Finds Bush Job Rating at New Low: "Political reversals at home and continued bad news from Iraq have dragged President Bush's standing with the public to a new low, at the same time that Republican fortunes on Capitol Hill also are deteriorating, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll.
The survey found that 38 percent of the public approve of the job Bush is doing, down three percentage points in the past month and his worst showing in Post-ABC polling since he became president. Sixty percent disapprove of his performance."

U.S. Blind to Harbinger of Its Decline

U.S. Blind to Harbinger of Its Decline: "The miscalculated policies of the U.S. administration in the Middle East are quickly depleting the country's ability to sustain its once unchallenged global position. Winds of change are blowing everywhere, and there is little that Washington's ideologues can do to stop that.

The above claim is increasingly finding its way into the realm of mainstream thinking, despite all attempts to mute or relegate its import.

A recent speech by U.S. Republican congressman and chairman of the House of international relations committee, Henry Hyde was the focal point of analysis by Martin Jacques in The Guardian newspaper.

'Our power has the grave liability of rendering our theories about the world immune from failure. But by becoming deaf to easily discerned warning signs, we may ignore long-term costs that result from our actions and dismiss reverses that should lead to a re-examination of our goals and means,' Hyde said.

In his poignant analysis -- decoding Hyde's deliberately implicit thoughts -- Jacques argued, 'The Bush administration stands guilty of an extraordinary act of imperial overreach which has left the U.S. more internationally isolated than ever before, seriously stretched financially, and guilty of neglect in east Asia and elsewhere.' "

The Nuclear Power Beside Iraq

The Nuclear Power Beside Iraq: "It was at this time, in September 2004, that The Atlantic sponsored a “war game” to consider what choices the United States might have if the Iranian problem built to a crisis. War games are not a staple of this magazine’s operation, but in light of difficulties in Iraq, we wanted to play out the long-term implications of possible U.S. moves and Iranian countermoves. So under the guidance of Sam Gardiner, a retired Air Force colonel who had conducted many real-world war games for the Pentagon, including those that shaped U.S. strategy for the first Gulf War, we assembled a panel of experts to ask “What then?” about the ways in which the United States might threaten, pressure, or entice the Iranians not to build a bomb. Some had been for and some against the invasion of Iraq; all had served in the Pentagon, intelligence agencies, or other parts of the nation’s security apparatus, and many had dealt directly with Iran"

Oil Major CEO talks about "the real problem of peak oil" | EnergyBulletin.net | Peak Oil News Clearinghouse

Oil Major CEO talks about "the real problem of peak oil" | EnergyBulletin.net | Peak Oil News Clearinghouse: "People are failing to deal with the reality of the price, which has nothing to do with speculators or even any lack of reserves, which are ample. 'It is a problem of capacities and of timing,' de Margerie says. 'This is the real problem of peak oil.'

The oil is there, he says, but the amount you can deliver today depends on how many wells you can drill and how fast you can deplete an oilfield, not to mention gaining the co- operation of governments, which guard access to the precious resource jealously. There is no prospect of reaching the lofty peaks that economists at the International Energy Agency, predict will be needed to satisfy world demand for oil.

There are not enough engineers, rigs, pipelines and drillers to increase current world output of 85 million barrels per day to 120 million, he says.

It would be possible only in a world without politics, he says. 'If there were no Americans, no Iranians, no English, no French and no Italians. Not a world I know.'"

Australia offers world's best returns

New Zealand's source for business, stock market & currency news on Stuff.co.nz: Australia offers world's best returns: "Mining company Oxiana topped the group, returning 90.3 per cent TSR a year. But the much-talked about resource boom was not reflected in mining companies dominating returns. Macquarie Goodman (86 per cent), Metcash (71.5 per cent), Caltex (60.3 per cent) and Unitab (48.3 per cent) rounded out the top five.
The supplement was released as an addition to BCG's Balancing Act, the firm's seventh annual study of corporate value creation.
That study shows that, globally, the travel, transport, and tourism industry group and the utilities industry group tied for best TSR, at 7 per cent a year.
Industrial goods, Australia's best performers on an industry basis at 13 per cent, returned 6 per cent globally. Technology and media, and entertainment turned in the worst global industry group performances, costing shareholders 15 and 10 per cent, respectively. "

Death By Medicine

Death By Medicine: "Each year approximately 2.2 million US hospital patients experience adverse drug reactions (ADRs) to prescribed medications.(1) In 1995, Dr. Richard Besser of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated the number of unnecessary antibiotics prescribed annually for viral infections to be 20 million; in 2003, Dr. Besser spoke in terms of tens of millions of unnecessary antibiotics prescribed annually.(2, 2a) Approximately 7.5 million unnecessary medical and surgical procedures are performed annually in the US,(3) while approximately 8.9 million Americans are hospitalized unnecessarily.(4)
As shown in the following table, the estimated total number of iatrogenic deaths—that is, deaths induced inadvertently by a physician or surgeon or by medical treatment or diagnostic procedures— in the US annually is 783,936. It is evident that the American medical system is itself the leading cause of death and injury in the US . By comparison, approximately 699,697 Americans died of heart in 2001, while 553,251 died of cancer.(5)
Table 1: Estimated Annual Mortality and Economic Cost of Medical Intervention
ConditionDeathsCostAuthor
Adverse Drug Reactions 106,000$12 billionLazarou(1), Suh (49)
Medical error 98,000$2 billionIOM(6)
Bedsores 115,000$55 billionXakellis(7), Barczak (8)
Infection 88,000$5 billionWeinstein(9), MMWR (10)
Malnutrition 108,800-----------Nurses Coalition(11)
Outpatients 199,000$77 billionStarfield(12), Weingart(112)
Unnecessary Procedures 37,136$122 billionHCUP(3,13)
Surgery-Related 32,000$9 billionAHRQ(85)
Total783,936$282 billion "

Gold & Silver Stocks

Gold & Silver Stocks - The Monthly Upcycle's Big Wave 3 Finally Peaked: "NEM, HUI, and the XAU's monthly upcycle (since 3-10-06) Wave 4 short term downcycle finally appears to have begun on Thursday 4-6 (see 1 year charts). NEM, HUI, and the XAU hit 2% follow through Wave 5 minor intermediate term cycle buy signals on Tuesday 3-14 (see HUI 1 year chart dated 3-17), which indicates that the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle and a monthly upcycle began on Friday 3-10-06. HUI is probably headed for 400-450+ in Wave 5.

'Trade the Cycles' Near Term Synopsis - HUI and the XAU appear to have finally completed a big Wave 3 short term upcycle on Thursday 4-6 (see latest 1 year charts), and, NEM's Wave 3 short term upcycle also probably peaked on Thursday 4-6 after some downside gap filling action. The XAU had what appears to be a large breakaway gap on Friday 4-7 (gapping down, so it's an upside gap because it's above the XAU's current level) that probably won't get filled this week, and, the Wave 4 short term downcycle is likely to bring a substantial decline. The COT (Commitments Of Traders) data (see bullet just before the charts) is short term bearish because the gold Commercial Traders traded substantially net short and the gold Speculators traded substantially net long. A big difference last week was the aggressive short selling by the gold Commercial Traders (shorted 20,657 futures and options contracts) versus the relatively modest short selling the week before (shorted 1716 futures and options contracts the prior week). The bearish NEM Lead Indicator last week at -1.02% vs the XAU also points to weakness this week. NEM's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 bottomed at 46.60 on 3-10 versus the Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, the XAU's Wave 4 bottomed a"

Bush and Cheney Discussed Plame Prior to Leak

Jason Leopold: Bush and Cheney Discussed Plame Prior to Leak: "In early June 2003, Vice President Dick Cheney met with President Bush and told him that CIA officer Valerie Plame Wilson was the wife of Iraq war critic Joseph Wilson and that she was responsible for sending him on a fact-finding mission to Niger to check out reports about Iraq's attempt to purchase uranium from the African country, according to current and former White House officials and attorneys close to the investigation to determine who revealed Plame-Wilson's undercover status to the media.
Other White House officials who also attended the meeting with Cheney and President Bush included former White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card, then-National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, her former deputy Stephen Hadley, and Deputy White House Chief of Staff Karl Rove.
This information was provided to this reporter by attorneys and US officials who have remained close to the case. Investigators working with Special Prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald compiled the information after interviewing 36 Bush administration officials over the past two and a half years.
The revelation puts a new wrinkle into Special Prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald's two-year-old criminal probe into the leak and suggests for the first time that President Bush knew from early on that the vice president and senior officials on his staff were involved in a coordinated effort to attack Wilson's credibility by leaking his wife's classified CIA status.
Now that President Bush's knowledge of the Plame Wilson affair has been exposed, there are thorny questions about whether the president has broken the law - specifically, whether he obstructed justice when he was interviewed about his knowledge of the Plame Wilson leak and the campaign to discredit her husband.
Details of President Bush's involvement in the Plam"

Third Retired General Wants Rumsfeld Out - New York Times

Third Retired General Wants Rumsfeld Out - New York Times: "WASHINGTON, April 9 — The three-star Marine Corps general who was the military's top operations officer before the invasion of Iraq expressed regret, in an essay published Sunday, that he did not more energetically question those who had ordered the nation to war. He also urged active-duty officers to speak out now if they had doubts about the war.
Lt. Gen. Gregory Newbold, who retired in late 2002, also called for replacing Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and 'many others unwilling to fundamentally change their approach.' He is the third retired senior officer in recent weeks to demand that Mr. Rumsfeld step down.
In the essay, in this week's issue of Time magazine, General Newbold wrote, 'I now regret that I did not more openly challenge those who were determined to invade a country whose actions were peripheral to the real threat — Al Qaeda.'
The decision to invade Iraq, he wrote, 'was done with a casualness and swagger that are the special province of those who have never had to execute these missions — or bury the results.'
Though some active-duty officers will say in private that they disagree with Mr. Rumsfeld's handling of Iraq, none have spoken out publicly. They attribute their silence to respect for civilian control of the military, as set in the Constitution — but some also say they know it would be professional suicide to speak up.
'The officer corps is willing to sacrifice their lives for their country, but not their careers,' said one combat veteran who says the Pentagon's civilian leadership made serious mistakes in Iraq, but has declined to voice his concerns for attribution.
Many officers who serv"

Copper, Zinc Climb

Bloomberg.com: Australia & New Zealand: "Kemp forecasts copper may rise to as high as $7,000 a ton this year. Gary Lampard, an analyst at Canaccord Capital Inc., Canada's largest independent brokerage, increased his forecasts for base- metal prices. The gains are being ``heavily influenced by speculative activity,'' he wrote in a report today.
Investment Funds
Fund investments in commodities are forecast by Barclays Capital to climb by more than a third to $140 billion this year. Merrill Lynch said Feb. 8 money managers should invest directly in commodities, rather than energy and mining stocks, to take advantage of rising prices.
Copper inventories monitored by the LME has dropped for six consecutive trading days, shedding 8.3 percent to 111,800 tons. That's less than three days of global consumption. Zinc stockpiles have plunged 53 percent in the past year to 267,650 tons, equal to less than 10 days of global consumption"

San Diego Housing Market

Realty Times - Real Estate News and Advice - Local Market Conditions: "March & 1st Quarter 2006: San Diego Housing Market - single family detached and attached: Inventory increases and demand declines continue. Sales finished the month at 2,844 homes sold versus 3,885 sold in March 2005, down 28%. Based on the March pending sales of about 3,100, April is forecast to be down from last April's 4,134 by 25%. This downward trend in sales began in earnest in the last quarter and seems to be accelerating. The first quarter sales were 6,743 sold versus 8,905 in the same period last year. This is down about 25% year to year. Typically the first quarter makes up about 22% of annual sales, if this holds true this year we are on track to sell 30,650 homes this year. This compares with 41,122 in 2005 and 42,876 in 2004. This is a far bigger drop than I expected, I was thinking more in the 35,000 range which I thought might cause some problems. Goes to show what I know. This drop in sales is happening at the same time that inventory continues to grow; we are now at 17,833 about 6 months supply. The average price for the month was $635,775, up 11% from last March. Don't get excited or misled, prices did not go up. The under $500,000 sales made up 45% of the sales volume versus 55% last year, this mix change pushed up the average price because of the sale of more expensive homes. This is not due to a lack of homes for sale, the under $500,000 inventory stands at about 8,300 - 158 days supply - or 47% of total inventory. Another item to watch in average price is that in some cases sellers are beginning to pay all or some of the buyer closing costs which is being financed in the selling price. This has the effect of raising the price of the home by about 2%."

-Iran military hints at Strait of Hormuz blockade

Iran Focus-Iran military hints at Strait of Hormuz blockade - Iran (General) - News: "Iran Focus

Tehran, Iran, Apr. 05 – The Supreme Commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, described on Wednesday the Strait of Hormuz on Iran’s southern shores as “the economic lifeline” of the West and said it could be used to put pressure on Iran’s enemies, state television reported.

About two-fifths of the world's oil supplies pass through the 50-kilometre-wide entrance to the Persian Gulf.

Safavi was speaking to reporters during the sixth day of weeklong naval exercises in the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman, dubbed “Great Prophet”. The general said that the area was of “immense military and geo-strategic importance” and that it linked the seaways of three continents – Africa, Asia, and Europe.

“Many industrial countries are dependent on the energy from this region. Japan gets 70 percent of its oil from this region, likewise 70 percent of certain European countries’ energy comes from this region”, he said, adding that every day the equivalent of 20 million barrels of oil travelled through the Strait of Hormuz.

“The Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are … the corner stone of [Iran’s] defence. The Strait of Hormuz counts as a point of economic control and pressure in the transfer of energy for aggressive powers from beyond the continent that want to endanger the security of the region”, General Safavi said.

The IRGC chief said the ongoing naval exercises should be seen in the context of “the geographical importance of the Persian Gulf, the timing and conditions of the exercises and the various modern and ad"

Crude Oil Rises in New York on Concern Supply From Iran

Bloomberg.com: Commodities: "April 10 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose in New York on reports the U.S. is preparing plans for military strikes against Iran, increasing concern that supplies from the world's fourth- largest producer may be disrupted.
The U.S. is using the threat of attacks, which aren't likely short-term, to put pressure on Iran to comply with the United Nations' demands on its nuclear research, the Washington Post said yesterday. The U.S. wants a diplomatic solution, White House spokesman Blair Jones said on April 8. Oil is within $4 of the $70.85 a barrel record reached in August after Hurricane Katrina halted output in the Gulf of Mexico.
``If there's a real confrontation with Iran over its nuclear ambitions, that would probably put a dent in supplies for a lot longer'' than last year's hurricanes, said Tobin Gorey, analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.
Crude oil for May delivery rose as much as 41 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $67.80 a barrel, in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $67.73 at 2:33 p.m. in Singapore, 26 percent higher than a year ago.
Oil has risen in the past four weeks because of output disruption in Nigeria and concern Iran may halt oil shipments should the United Nations impose sanctions.
The U.S. is weighing using air strikes and tactical nuclear arms on Iran to destroy the country's alleged atomic weapons program and bring down President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's government, the New Yorker magazine reported, citing interviews with unidentified military and intelligence officials.
Military Options
Oil reached a post-Katrina high of $69.20 on Jan. 23 after Iran said it would resist any moves by the U.K., U.S., France and Germany to refer the dispute over nuclear research to the UN Security Council.
"

An October Surprise?

An October Surprise?: "According to the Washington Times, Iran’s clerical and political elites want no war with America and are moving to curb the power of President Ahmadinejad. As one Tehran editor told the Washington Times, “if they [the Bushites] keep piling on the pressure, Ahmadinejad will become a national hero. … Let the Iranians deal with him. If you leave him alone he will become a bankrupt politician within a year.”
Cal Coolidge counseled that when you see ten troubles coming up the road, sometimes the best thing to do is nothing because nine of them will fall into the ditch before they get to you.
Bush is the commander in chief, not King George. He has no power to launch U.S. air strikes on Iran, an act of war, unless Congress authorizes war. Before we wake up to an October surprise, Congress should do its duty and Rumsfeld and Rice should appear and make the case for a war some of us believe Iran neither wants nor threatens.
Forget the Feingold Resolution. Undeclared presidential wars are the real stuff of impeachment."

US Prepares Nuclear Strike on Iran

ZAMAN DAILY NEWSPAPER (2006040931830): "An article to be published by the New Yorker magazine on April 17 claimed the George W. Bush administration views the Iranian President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, as a potential Adolf Hitler and is preparing a strike on Iran’s nuclear sites, suspected of making nuclear weaponry.
Written by Pulitzer-awarded prominent journalist Seymour Hersh, who disclosed the Abu Ghraib scandal, the article says the nuclear operation is based on a former top level intelligence official and a Defense Department official.
The distinguished journalist had claimed in another news article published by the same magazine in January 2005 that after Iraq the next stop of the US’s war on terror would be Iran.
The news escalated tension between Tehran and Washington.
Hersh later wrote the American commandos spotted the possible targets through the secret operations carried out in Iran.
According to Hersh’s article, the White House is convinced the only way to resolve the nuclear crisis is to change the power structure in Iran.
A Pentagon source says, “this means war,” while a former intelligence official describes the US’s preparations as large-scale, hustle, and operational.
The article claims the US’s military preparations are based on the belief that a bombing campaign against Iran would humiliate its religious leadership and lead the Iranian public to overthrow the government.
Hersh informs the US President Bush has recently been holding a series of confidential meetings with the Senate and the House of Representatives members about the plans over Iran and says one of the targets is Natanz, suspected of producing nuclear weapons.
According to Hersh, Washington plans to use B61-11 tactical nuclear weapons to destroy this plant; however, it is "

More Debt, not Less

Kitco Commentaries - They Have No Chioce - By Paul Van Eeden: "Maybe you don’t like to think that far into the future. Perhaps a trillion is just too big a number to comprehend, so let’s think about billions. During the past six months, since the beginning of the current fiscal year, the US government’s debt has increased by $456 billion. On an annualized basis that is $912 billion. The US government’s debt increases at the rate of $2.5 billion per day, including weekends. How much is a billion? A billion seconds ago it was 1974 and one billion minutes ago Jesus may still have been alive. Next time someone tosses the word “billion” or “trillion” around casually you should ask if they actually know how much it is.
It might be true that the US economy is very large, and many people believe the US economy is large enough to carry the humungous amount of US debt. Personally I believe that US economic growth is overstated but, even if we assume the official numbers are correct, then US economic growth is only about 2% to 3% per year. The US government’s debt is currently growing at an annualized rate of 11.5% and, as I explained earlier, that growth rate is about increase.
The amount, and the growth rate of US government debt, coupled with the possibility that China will have to reduce its purchases of US Treasuries to comply with the wishes of Washington, means that US interest rates could soar. Again, we are not talking about short-term rates here, but longer-term rates: The five-year rate on which auto financings are based, and the twenty and thirty-year rates on which mortgage rates are based. This is bound to hurt US consumers, corporations and the US economy and it will occur in conjunction with a weakening US dollar, which means higher gasoline prices.
A weaker dollar"

FSU Editorial: "New Priorities in the Chinese Energy Sector" by Kevin McKern 04/03/2006

FSU Editorial: "New Priorities in the Chinese Energy Sector" by Kevin McKern 04/03/2006: "Aussie uranium stocks rocketed into bubble territory this week, driven by the Uranium sale agreement between Australia and China. For example, the leader in the sector, Paladin Resources is now trading at $5.19, a big move up from the low of $0.05. Incidentally, the Paladin CEO reported on the weekend that Uranium was so out of favour in the late nineties that the mining rights to the Namibia deposit were purchased for a mere fifteen thousand dollars; the company has a current capitalisation of 2 billion.
China has spent big in Australia on energy; an agreement to buy liquid natural gas from the Gorgon project in Western Australia, which was signed last year, was the biggest commercial deal ever signed and contracts Australia to supply China with a billion dollars worth of gas a year for the next twenty five years.
In all, during 2005, Australian exports to China jumped by more than 20 percent, and with the 72 percent increase in the value of coking coal exports, China displaced the United States as Australia's number two trading partner.
At 385,000 MW (megawatts), the current electric grid of China is second only to the United States. To keep up with demand, China will double its electric-generating capacity every decade until 2020 while it moves away from dependence on Coal.
Apart from the environmental and human costs, simple logistics rule out the use of coal to meet new energy demands. Half of China's railroad capacity is already occupied hauling the one billion tons of coal per year used to produce two thirds of China electricity.
China is building a world class Photovoltaic industry and the current wind energy target calls for six gigawatts of power by 2010 and 30 gigawatts by 2020, a boost that would give China t"

Banking and the Business Cycle

PrudentBear.com - The One-Stop Shop for the Bear Case: "But it is better to just let the timeless insights from “Banking and the Business Cycle” “speak” for themselves.

“It is sought to show that the main cause of the dislocation in trade and industry was, in [T.E.] Gregory’s language, the ‘disregard of the rules of common sense in the treatment of the money supply’ of the United States; the depression is proximately an effect of inflation. The post [First World] War inflation in the United States was an investment credit inflation, however, as distinguished from the commodity credit inflation of War-time.” (page 4)

“The special character of the depression is traced to the hyper-elasticity of the Federal Reserve System, and to the operation of that system as exemplified in the ‘managed currency’ experiment of the Federal Reserve Board… The depression, in other words, was the price paid for the experimentation with currency management by the Federal Reserve Board…” (pages 5/6)

“Through the purchase of investments, commercial banks impart a positive upward impulsion to the business cycle. Coming in as a marginal determining factor in the price of bonds, purchases of investments by banks force down the long-term market rate of interest so that it becomes profitable, in view of the existing realized rate of return to capital at important new investment margins, to float new bond issues and to embark upon new capital development; this results in an investment boom which affects a change in the structure of production… the purchase of investments by banks creates new deposits in the banking system in much the same fashion as does the granting of loans.” (page 6)

�"

Ben in Tokyo

PIMCO Bonds - FF April 2006: "The Bank of Japan’s announcement on March 9 that it would be exiting its regime of Quantitative Easing (QE), initiated in March 2001, was bittersweet joy for me. Not that I disagreed with the Bank of Japan’s decision at all. It was the right thing to do at the right time. I applaud!

My melancholy was driven not by the looming end of QE, but rather by my reflections on the conditions that had triggered QE in the first place: a Minsky-style debt-deflation in Japan. Such an outcome should not have unfolded. And it would not have ever unfolded, I firmly believe, if Japanese policymakers had pursued and sustained proper Keynesian reflationary policies following the collapse of equity and property bubbles in the early 1990s.

QE was the last-ditch policy to get Japan out of the debt-deflation ditch. And it worked! The mechanical details of the QE approach are fascinating, both historically and prospectively, as we try to forecast the machinations of its removal. My Tokyo-based PIMCO colleague Tomoya Masanao does a fantastic job going through these matters in a special center-section article in this edition of Fed Focus. "

Global Warming by the Numbers

Environmental Defense - Global Warming by the Numbers: "Global Warming by the Numbers"

IMF warns high prices risk global crisis

FT.com / World / International economy - IMF warns high prices risk global crisis: "High energy prices are 'exacerbating' global economic imbalances, increasing the risks of a crisis, the International Monetary Fund will warn next week.
The IMF will say in its World Economic Outlook report that 'global current account imbalances are likely to remain at elevated levels for longer than would otherwise have been the case, heightening the risk of sudden disorderly adjustment'. A draft of the second chapter of the report was obtained by Expansion, the Financial Times' Spanish partner paper"

A Path of Devastation

Articles: "The Rocky Mountain News is reporting, 'Foreclosure Shock':
'Denver market sees 31.5% increase from first quarter of 2005…
'The 31.5% jump is the largest year-over-year percentage increase for a quarter in almost two years.
'The jump to 4,764 foreclosures, compared with 3,624 in the first three months of 2005, took some experts by surprise. Public trustee offices in Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, and Jefferson counties estimated the number of foreclosures they expect to open this month.
''That is disturbing,' said economist Patty Silverstein of the soaring number of foreclosures.
''We still expected to see increases in 2006, but this is larger than what I would have expected. At this point in our economic recovery, we would have expected to have seen a smaller increase in foreclosures,' said Silverstein, principal of Development Research Partners.
'She said that a main culprit appears to be interest-only and other variable-rate loans that homeowners have taken out in huge numbers in recent years to reduce their monthly mortgage payments…
''What I see is not pretty,' said [Keller Williams Preferred Realty's Sean] Healey, who also heads the Healey Group and hosts a radio talk show called The Real Estate Advocate on KKZN (AM 760).
'He said the number of unsold homes on the market has been growing by an average of 2.5% a week. The increasing supply is putting downward pressure on sale prices, especially for the lower-priced homes most likely to go into foreclosure.
'That's a vicious cycle because it forces more sellers to lower their prices, driving even more houses into foreclosure, Healey said.
''Primarily, I see a huge glut of homes priced under $300,000,' Healey said. 'Und"

Safe Haven | McHugh's Daily Market Briefing

Safe Haven | McHugh's Daily Market Briefing: "Purchasing Power IndicatorDJIA/S&PShortBuyFeb 16, 2006DJIA Up 214 Points
DJIA 14 Day StochasticDJIAShortBuyApr 4, 2006New Signal
Secondary Trend IndicatorDJIA/S&PIntermNeutralOct 31, 2005DJIA Up 764 Points
NDX 14 Day StochasticNASDAQ 100ShortBuyMar 29, 2006NDX UP 19 Points
NDX Purchase Power IndicNASDAQ 100ShortBuyMar 14, 2006NDX Up 42 Points
RUT Purchase Power IndicRUTShortBuyMar 14, 2006RUT Up 34 Points
HUI 30 Day StochasticHUIShortBuyMar 24, 2006HUI Up 32 Points
HUI Purchasing Power IndicHUIShortBuyMar 14, 2006HUI Up 46 Points

We now have all of our short-term signals on 'buys.' Liquidity is lifting all boats higher, including precious metals. Only Bonds and the Dollar are struggling, which would make sense if monetary inflation is the driving force behind nominal valuation rallies. Nevertheless, we can profit handsomely playing call options even if the gains are strictly due to fiat currency expansion. Tonight the Dow Industrials have generated a new 'buy' signal in our blue chip key trend-finder indicators. The DJIA 14 day Stochastic Fast measure rose sharply, we might add, to 53.33 from 26.67, and blew past the Slow reading at 34.00. This new 'buy' signal confirms the 'buy' from February 16th, 2006 in the Purchasing Power Indicator, which rose to a new high of 92.72 Tuesday. What this is telling us is that the forces of supply and demand have favored higher prices since February 16th, and now breadth momentum has turned positive and is rising sharply, what we normally see at the start of rallies. We have no way of knowing how long this blue chip equity rally will last, or how far up it will go. Usually we see at least 200 points after these signals first agree on a new trend.
SUMMARY DAILY STATISTICS
Blue Chips S&P 500/DJIA
DateDemand"

Best of Richard Russell

Best of Richard Russell: "BEST OF RICHARD RUSSELL
March 30, 2006
I see two 'musts' in the picture ahead. The first is that dollar must continue to be accepted worldwide. The whole of US prosperity depends on the rest of the world accepting dollars for their goods and services. So far, I see no hints that the dollar is in trouble. The Dollar Index has been in a trading range. As a matter of fact, yesterday, following a period of minor weakness, the Dollar Index rose above its 50-day moving average.

The fact that the dollar continues to be accepted is remarkable when we examine the facts. Over the last year the US has 'created' roughly $850 billion additional dollars, an enormous amount. Yet the world continues to take these dollars in -- in return for the world's goods and services. It's a case of 'they sell us the goods, and we pretend to pay them.' How long can this go on? That's a question for history to answer -- I'm amazed that it's gone on this far.

The second 'must' in the picture is that US housing must hold together. The upside of housing, the rising prices, may now be hitting a wall, but housing must not be allowed to fall apart. Housing is where Americans have really been successful as far as gaining wealth is concerned. The average US family has not done well in the stock market as you can see from the article below. But Americans have done very well in housing, and their feeling of 'wealth and security' is closely tied to the rise in the price of their homes. If home and condo prices head down, it's going to be a different story. If that happens, consumers will cut back on their spending, and the US could quickly sink into recession.

To offset such an outcome, the Fed is creating massive liquidity. Fed chief Bernanke is an expert on the Great Depression of the '30s, and he b"

Copper, Zinc Rise to Records

Bloomberg.com: Top Worldwide: "April 5 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose to a record, leading a rally in aluminum, nickel and tin, as declining supplies led investment funds to increase purchases of the metal. Zinc also climbed to an all-time high.
Strikers at Grupo Mexico SA have shut the Latin American country's second-biggest copper mine at a time when inventories have plunged to their lowest in more than a month. The amount of money in index-linked commodity funds will rise 38 percent this year to $140 billion, according to Barclays Capital.
``Most funds are long in base metals,'' Stephan Wrobel, chief executive officer of Diapason Commodities, who oversees about $3 billion in assets, said in an interview in London. ``The supply and demand dynamics of copper still have a long way to go.''
Copper for delivery in three months on the LME rose as much as $137.30, or 2.5 percent, to $5,686.30 a metric ton, beating the previous record set April 3 by $69.30. It was at $5,670 at 4:56 p.m. in London. Copper has risen in five of the past six weeks, taking its gain this year to 29 percent. "

Mogambo guru

Kitco - Commentaries: "Numerous personal conversations with economics degree holders over the years have revealed to me an absolutely shocking display of ignorance regarding risk from debt in commerce, risk from debt in currency, lost control from foreign debt ownership, wreckage from pursuit of low-cost foreign solutions, insane reliance upon consumption instead of investment, acceptance of the entire lexicon of FedSpeak, and benign dismay of economic statistics. These people have been co-workers in industry, colleagues of friends, and acquaintances socially. One sure path to acceptance of chronic bad policy is to have it blessed by badly educated economics counselors. In fact, a full generation of badly educated economics professionals litters the Washington, D.C. and academic landscape. In a sense, the United States has 're-invented' economic theory. The movement coincides with the advent and growth of financial engineering, which is just a nice glib catch phrase for inflation & leverage.'"

Sustainability is good business

Sustainability is good business - Business - Business - theage.com.au: "SUSTAINABILITY is not just about being green, it will help the bottom line for owners and occupiers ready to embrace the technology.
That's one of the key results of the white paper Assessing the Value of Sustainability, presented at a sustainability forum in Melbourne by Jones Lang LaSalle national director of sustainability and engineering services, Chris Wallbank.
'Commercial outcomes are beginning to drive the 'greening' of Australian office property as building owners seek to drive higher levels of efficiency from their property portfolios,' he said.
'They are starting to come to the realisation that sustainability features can reduce outgoings and increase property values by boosting the bottom line.'
For newer buildings, it's all about innovation — setting benchmarks and strategic moves to improve corporate branding.
About $10 million has been spent on environmental features on the huge City of Melbourne council house, CH2, on Little Collins Street.
The $51 million building boasts world leader status, with six green stars awarded by the Green Building Council. It aims to cut electricity usage by 85 per cent, gas consumption by 87 per cent and water mains supply by 72 per cent.
Another example is nab's campus-style accommodation at Docklands.
With a 4.3 star Australian building greenhouse rating (ABGR), the 59,900-square-metre space has been built for maximum flexibility with smart, simple integration design.
The building comprises two large atriums, with open floor plates, glass greenhouse style environments and an abundance of natural lighting.
One issue expected to gain pace over the next few years is the switch between a sustainability premium to a non-su"

Doctor's advice: go for gold - Business - Business - theage.com.au

Doctor's advice: go for gold - Business - Business - theage.com.au: "Marc Faber says that the current bull run in commodities may last for another 20 years. So what should we do? Invest, writes Stephanie Banks.
MARC Faber has been described as the 'Warren Buffett of South-East Asia'. He is the author of the bestseller Tomorrow's Gold and The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report and now he's in Melbourne with a key message — he's putting his money on gold.
Hong Kong-based Dr Faber will today address the 2006 Financial Services Symposium.
He believes 'the current bull run is strongest in commodities and could conceivably last for another 20 years'.
Dr Faber regards the present investment scene as most unusual, in the sense that everybody is positive about most asset classes. Equity fund managers around the world are positive about equities in both the developed economies and in emerging markets, while commodity traders are positive about commodities.
Dr Faber is as bullish about putting money into regional real estate investment trusts (REITs) as other property investments and sees outside evidence, with art aficionados bullish about art prices and collectables. He also reminds those who will listen that on the flipside, bond investors are predicting a further decline in yields on fixed income.
That all adds up to an 'uncommon' set of circumstances, according to Dr Faber, where there is general bullishness among all asset classes.
Admitting that there is an overwhelming bullishness in the air is difficult for Dr Faber. Like Warren Buffett, he is a contrary investor. He believes in buying value when an asset class, or a company share price for that matter, is underperforming.
'In the US we now have a stockmarket that has risen for over 1100 days without a 10 per cent correction, which is quite unu"

Business Day - News Worth Knowing

Business Day - News Worth Knowing: "LONDON - Copper is likely to continue its way towards $6,000 a tonne as speculative flows of money overwhelm producers’ ability to raise output, analysts said today.
'Copper has exceeded even the most bullish analysts’ targets and it is a futile exercise calling the peak. We have gone up so much in the last few days and it looks to be heading to $6,000,' Stephen Briggs, analyst at investment bank, SGCIB, said.
'It’s a combination of the massive flow of fund money and the copper industry’s failure to meet production targets,' he said.
Briggs also said the only thing that could stop copper would be a long series of weak US economic data.
London Metal Exchange copper for delivery in three months (MCU3) was down $30 at $5,585/$5,595 from yesterday’s close. On Monday copper hit a record $5,616.
'Copper has now hit $5,600 and it is only a matter of time before we see $6,000 as fund money flowing into commodities seems almost limitless at this stage,' a Hong Kong-based metals trader said."

Reuters Business Copper hovers near new peak as fund moneyChannel | Reuters.com

Reuters Business Channel | Reuters.com: "SINGAPORE, April 4 (Reuters) - Copper prices edged lower but stayed within striking distance of a record peak on Tuesday, a day after the red metal soared 4 percent in London on renewed fund buying and concerns over disuptions in global supplies.
By 0706 GMT, London Metal Exchange copper for delivery in three months was down $10 from Monday's London close at $5,605/$5,615 a tonne.
'Copper has now hit $5,600 and it is only a matter of time before we see $6,000 as fund money flowing into commodities seems almost limitless at this stage,' a Hong Kong-based metals trader said.
On Monday, LME copper jumped $225, or 4.17 percent, to close at $5,615 in London. It hit a record $5,616 as funds launched a new quarter with a bang on talk that copper was in short supply.
Copper, used in construction and electronics, has risen nearly 28 percent this year as global inventories declined and worries mounted over deliveries from leading producing countries such as Indonesia, Zambia, Mexico and Chile.
The metal was below $1,400 a tonne in November 2001.
Monday's sharp gains in LME copper helped Shanghai copper futures <0#SCF:> jump to a record high on Tuesday, with gains capped by daily trading limits.
The most active Shanghai contract, June, rose briefly to its daily upper trading limit of 52,000 yuan ($6,476) a tonne in early trade and closed at 51,760 yuan, up 1,580 yuan from the previous close.
Shanghai spot copper prices were between 51,950 and 52,150 yuan per tonne, up 1,700 yuan from Monday. "

Kitco - Contributed Commentaries

Kitco - Contributed Commentaries: "Many financial-market analysts and commentators have given attention to base metals lately because of the recent bull-to-date and all-time highs being achieved. But for stock investors it is the stocks of the companies that produce these metals where the real excitement has been. These highs directly spill over into the financial performance of the companies that bring the copper, zinc, nickel, aluminum and lead to market in turn positively affecting their stock prices.
At Zeal we also see the writing on the wall and embrace the incredible opportunities that exist in this sector. As gold is consolidating and brewing its next upleg, we have focused much of our attention lately on the base metals front in order to flesh out these opportunities.
Now in order to build a foundational understanding of this base metals bull market it is imperative to understand its drivers. I’m not going to dig too deep into the fundamentals right now, but simply put, we are in the midst of major economic imbalances for these commodities. For several years now demand has outstripped supply for these metals and global warehoused stocks have been falling to alarming lows in order to feed the appetite of the global economy. Economics, as it should be, is the major driver of this recent bull run."

Stocking Up On Silver And Gold

Bears' Chat - Welcome: "Stocking Up On Silver And Gold
Curtis Hesler, Professional Timing Service 03.31.06, 9:15 AM ET
MISSOULA, MONT.
-
Oh my gosh. I think I need to put myself in manacles. I have been watching silver zoom higher over the last week or more, and I have been sitting on my hands. I make it a practice never to chase strength--that is the best way I know of to get into serious trouble in the markets. Nevertheless, it is getting more difficult each day, and although discipline is paramount in a successful investment program, I may need a stronger restraint.
Silver has been the star since last fall when it left the $7.00 level. It marched right up to $11.00 this week and managed a wiggle or two along the way. But over the last three weeks, it has been on a regular rocket ride.
Gold has been no slouch either. After putting in a high at $585 June basis in early February, it has been sliding sideways between $585 per ounce and $540 per ounce. It is pushing the top of its trading band again now, but it hasn't been as big a deal as silver. Silver is where the greatest seduction lies.
Momentum In Mining Shares
The mining shares have been marching to their own drummer during all of this. Although the XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) reached a peak a bit earlier than gold at $151.90 on Jan. 31, it dropped about 20% top-to-bottom. Gold has only seen a total retracement of 7.6% since the first of the year, and it is currently closer to its highs than its lows. The mining shares as represented by the XAU have recovered, but they are not threatening their highs just yet.
The exception is in the silver stocks. They have been stronger than the XAU--or gold or silver, for that matter. It sure is tempting to jum"

Silver $15.13 next stop..

Kitco Casey - Gold, Silver and Natural Resource Stock Quotes, Share Research and Analysis: "The Hightower Report’s take on Monday’s action: “The silver market continues to lead the precious metals markets to even higher levels. The close Monday was well above the prior high close and that seemed to embolden the bull camp. It is possible that silver market was indeed taking some early direction from the overt and significant strength in the copper market, as many traders took the huge copper gains as a sign of intense fund interest in all the metals markets.

“In the end, seeing equities strong and energy prices exhibiting significant volatility seemed to suggest that investment and inflation themes were serving to drive buyers toward the silver market. With the silver market rising back toward the Friday highs of $11.77, in the May contract, it is possible that some in the trade are beginning to look ahead to the next higher historical price reference point of $15.13, that was forged back in August of 1983. In the end, ongoing inflation talk, soaring gold prices, flight to quality buying interest off rising oil prices seemed to whip up already surging investment demand in silver. For the time being, the bull camp seems to have a series of elements working in its favor!”"

Superspeedy Underwater Weapon

Superspeedy Underwater Weapon: BLOG: SciAm Observations: "You may have seen recent news reports about Iranian tests of a new high-velocity underwater missile. The New York Times (April 2) said that the new subsurface weapon is among the world's fastest and can outpace an enemy warship. Gen. Ali Fadavi of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards stated that 'even if an enemy's warship sonar can detect the missile, no warship can escape from this missile because of its high speed.' Fadivi added that it took six years to build and that 'only Russia had a missile that moved underwater as fast as the Iranian one, which he said had a speed of about 225 miles per hour.'
This story may ring familiar to long-term SciAm readers, who may recall an article the magazine published some five years ago on supercavitating weapons--unusual devices that can travel underwater at surprisingly high speeds because they are surrounded by large, friction-cutting air bubbles. ['Warp Drive Underwater'; Scientific American Magazine; May 2001; by Steven Ashley, pages 70 to 79].
The scenes from the Iranian state television video broadcast of tests (available here) almost undoubtedly depict a supercavitating torpedo, likely similar to the Russian 'Shkval' underwater rocket described in the article. "

BHP, ERA to supply Uranium to Taiwan

Bloomberg.com: Energy: "April 4 (Bloomberg) -- BHP Billiton and Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. agreed to supply uranium to Taiwan, the Sydney Morning Herald reported.
BHP and Energy Resources signed contracts with electricity producer Taiwan Power Co. in the past 12 months, the newspaper said, citing Taiwanese officials.
Taiwan doesn't have official relations with Australia, so the arrangement provided for indirect trade through the U.S., said Osman Chia, an official from the Taipei economic and cultural office in Canberra, Australia, according to the newspaper.
Taiwan is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, the newspaper said. Australia is party to the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty which bans uranium sales to any countries which have not signed the treaty, the newspaper said. April 4 (Bloomberg) -- BHP Billiton and Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. agreed to supply uranium to Taiwan, the Sydney Morning Herald reported.
BHP and Energy Resources signed contracts with electricity producer Taiwan Power Co. in the past 12 months, the newspaper said, citing Taiwanese officials.
Taiwan doesn't have official relations with Australia, so the arrangement provided for indirect trade through the U.S., said Osman Chia, an official from the Taipei economic and cultural office in Canberra, Australia, according to the newspaper.
Taiwan is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, the newspaper said. Australia is party to the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty which bans uranium sales to any countries which have not signed the treaty, the newspaper said. "

FT.com / Home UK - Gold set to become even scarcer

FT.com / Home UK - Gold set to become even scarcer: "Bobby Godsell, chief executive of AngloGold Ashanti, predicted that worldwide gold production would stagnate, then fall in the coming years as large deposits of the precious metal become scarce.
He said this would support the rally in the gold price, which last week hit a 25-year high of $588 per ounce.
The South African company, the world’s third biggest gold producer, mined 6.2m ounces of gold in 2005 but expects production to be lower this year, between 5.8m and 6.1m ounces, and then increase again in 2007 as new projects come on stream.
But in an interview with the FT, Mr Godsell warned that the gold industry will find it hard to keep up current levels of production. “All of the gold majors are finding it difficult to replace their reserves. New mine production will be flat-to-declining.”
RBC Capital Markets in London estimated that total gold production would rise slightly in 2006 and 2007, be flat in 2008 and start to fall in 2009. “There hasn’t been a big gold discovery for years,” said an analyst.
Mr Godsell said: “Gold is precious because it is scarce. Twenty years ago the majority of gold was produced by four old world countries: South Africa, Australia, Canada and the US. In the future it will be anything but. Tomorrow’s ounces of gold are going to be in interesting countries.”
AngloGold, which has expanded away from its base in South Africa as the country’s reserves of gold dwindle, is focusing on exploration in high potential but high risk areas such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Colombia, Mongolia and Russia.
The high gold price has stimulated exploration activity by smaller mining companies, but Mr Godsell"

Chávez seeks to peg oil at $50

Guardian Unlimited Business | | Chávez seeks to peg oil at $50 a barrel: "The price proposed by Mr Chávez is about $15 a barrel below the current global level but a credible long-term agreement at about $50 a barrel could have huge implications for Venezuela's standing in the international oil community.
According to US sources, Venezuela holds 90% of the world's extra heavy crude oil - deposits which have to be turned into synthetic light crude before they can be refined and which only become economic to operate with the oil price at about $40 a barrel. Newsnight cites a report from the US Energy Information Administrator, Guy Caruso, suggesting Venezuela could have more than a trillion barrels of reserves.
A $50-a-barrel lock-in would open the way for Venezuela, already the world's fifth-largest oil exporter, to demand a huge increase in its official oil reserves - allowing it to demand a big increase in its production allowance within Opec.
Venezuela's oil minister Raphael Ramirez told Newsnight in a separate interview that his country plans to ask Opec to formally recognise the uprating of its reserves to 312bn barrels (compared to Saudi Arabia's 262bn) when Mr Chávez hosts a gathering of Opec delegates in Caracas next month.
Venezuela's ambitious strategy to boost its standing in the global pecking order of oil producers by increasing the extent of its officially recognised reserves is likely to face opposition. Some countries will oppose the idea of a fixed price for the global oil market at well below existing levels. Others are unlikely to be happy with any diminution of their influence over world oil prices in favour of Venezuela.
Caracas's hopes for an increase in its standing would be a far cry from the days when Mr Chávez came to power after years of quota-busting during which Venezuela helped "

Chart TV Aussie Technical analysis

Chart TV: "Gain insights into market action and learn technical analysis at Chart TV. Hello, my name is Malcolm Gordon. I have been trading and refining my trading skills for the last five years and have turned over tens of millions trading stocks, currencies, options and CFDs. In this time I have experienced euphoric highs and despairing lows and now wish to share my experiences and most importantly knowledge with the world. I have a passion for trading and wish to share that passion via Chart TV. I hope you enjoy each episode"

UN health body confirms 4 Egypt bird flu cases - Yahoo! News

UN health body confirms 4 Egypt bird flu cases - Yahoo! News: "CAIRO (Reuters) - The World Health Organization (WHO) has confirmed that four Egyptians have caught bird flu, including two who died from the virus, an Egyptian health ministry official said on Monday.
Nasr al-Sayyed told Reuters that a WHO laboratory in Britain had verified the four cases. The result was received on Sunday, he said. The Egyptian government sends samples from people it suspects have caught the virus to the WHO for final confirmation.
The government says a total of eight Egyptians have been infected by bird flu. Two of those have recovered, while the others are still being treated.
Bird flu has killed at least 105 people worldwide, according to the most recent figures from the WHO. That figure does not include the deaths in Egypt.
The virus was first detected in Egypt in birds in February and has devastated the poultry industry. The government has banned domestic rearing of fowl, but people in poor rural areas are ignoring instructions to get rid of their poultry.
Bird flu has so far not been transmitted from human to human, but can be caught from infected birds. Although difficult for humans to catch, scientists fear it could mutate into a form that can pass easily between humans. "

Think Progress » VIDEO: Gen. Zinni Calls on Rumsfeld and Others to Resign for ‘Disastrous Mistakes’ in Iraq

Think Progress » VIDEO: Gen. Zinni Calls on Rumsfeld and Others to Resign for ‘Disastrous Mistakes’ in Iraq: "ZINNI: I saw the — what this town is known for, spin, cherry-picking facts, using metaphors to evoke certain emotional responses or shading the context. We know the mushroom clouds and the other things that were all described that the media has covered well. I saw on the ground a sort of walking away from 10 years’ worth of planning. You know, ever since the end of the first Gulf War, there’s been planning by serious officers and planners and others, and policies put in place — 10 years’ worth of planning were thrown away. Troop levels dismissed out of hand. Gen. Shinseki basically insulted for speaking the truth and giving an honest opinion. The lack of cohesive approach to how we deal with the aftermath, the political, economic, social reconstruction of a nation, which is no small task. A belief in these exiles that anyone in the region, anyone that had any knowledge, would tell you were not credible on the ground. And on and on and on, decisions to disband the army that were not in the initial plans. There’s a series of disastrous mistakes. We just heard the Secretary of State say these were tactical mistakes. These were not tactical mistakes. These were strategic mistakes, mistakes of policies made back here. Don’t blame the troops. They’ve been magnificent. If anything saves us, it will be them.
RUSSERT: Should someone resign?
ZINNI: Absolutely.
RUSSERT: Who?
ZINNI: Secretary of Defense to begin with.
RUSSERT: Anyone else?
ZINNI: Well, I think that we — those that have been responsible for the planning, for overriding all the efforts that were made in planning before that, that those that stood by and allow"

Prelude to Stocks Disaster and Gold Opportunities

Kitco - Commentaries - Gold Pressures Re-pricing Of Assets: "When gold wins fiat paper is not even good toilet tissue. It’s too rough and won’t crinkle. There are some very powerful central bankers, fiat money proponents and securities people who all fear gold. Gold will ruin their happy little status quo which is why gold prices have been smothered. The markets these people cannot control are the CURRENCIES. Bonds can be somewhat controlled but not to the extent they can be bent totally to the satisfaction of manipulators. When the consumer caves in economically which is very soon, nobody will take care of you but you. You must take control and go opposite today’s majority which is very difficult. Those status quo believers are the dominating force. When the game caves in and there is a race to liquidity, non-believers will be seriously damaged causing severe life style changes and perhaps even the end of their happy little bucolic existence.
It will not hurt anybody to get out of debt, lower life style expectations and take steps to protect your future. If I am totally wrong what can you lose? If I am right and you stay with the status quo, what does your future look like? Don’t let the enemies of gold run you off. Hold your gold and have strength of purpose. Remember, that first of all the fundamentals mandate gold and history tells us precious metals are the place to win for several more years. –Trader Rog"

Uranium Update Bloomberg

Bloomberg.com: Top Worldwide: "At the start of the year, there were 441 operating reactors, and another 24 under construction, according to the London-based World Nuclear Association. An extra 41 plants have funding and approvals in place. China plans to build 28 power plants to meet rising demand for energy, according to the association.
Uranium prices may jump another 34 percent this year to $54 a pound, according to Resource Capital Research. The spot price was at $40.25 a pound on March 24, according to industry publication Metal Bulletin.
China's Premier Wen Jiabao, who held a joint media conference in Canberra today with Australian Prime Minister John Howard, wants to establish a price setting mechanism as part of the agreement between Australian and China, the Australian Financial Review reported, citing Wen's comments to businesses executives in Perth yesterday.
The comments raised fears of a repeat of the damaging spat between China and its trading partners over iron ore prices, the newspaper reported. Macfarlane played down the comments, saying prices would be set as part of normal commercial arrangements, the paper said.
BHP's Olympic Dam holds more than a third of the world's known uranium and the company is studying spending more than A$4 billion on an expansion that would triple uranium production, as well as increase gold and copper output.
Energy Resources in October raised its estimate of uranium reserves at Ranger and said the additional reserves would add three years to the operating life of the mine.
Two Assets
``When you look at those two assets, they have the ability to expand pretty quickly, especially Olympic Dam for BHP Billiton,'' said Mark Pervan, head of research at Daiwa Securities SMBC in Melbourne.
For China to get access"

Bruce Sterling's State of the World Address, SXSW '06

Oh Caption, My Caption!: Bruce Sterling's State of the World Address, SXSW '06: "This is a transcript I just got around to finishing last night, of a 40-odd minute talk given in the closing slot of this year's Interactive Festival Panels at SXSW. I was privileged to witness this bracingly challenging and not a little moving speech at first hand: as a matter of fact, if I weren't so intoverted and inhibitive about these things, I probably could have introduced the guy, being the only Conference staff on hand as I was standing by to see that he was set up for whatever audio-visual feeds he wanted. But as I warned him, I probably would have just said something ridiculous anyway. Admiration usually gets me that way."

This chart says long bond yields are heading higher

PrudentBear.com - The One-Stop Shop for the Bear Case: "The bear case has recently received strong support from bond price developments. The chart is a technically alarming one for bond bulls (I have deliberately chosen a long term chart with quarterly data to eliminate short term noise). Firstly, the long term trend - as shown by the two year moving average - is strongly upwards. Secondly, yields have decisively broken up through very strong resistance between 4.40% and 4.60%. Thirdly, yields have also broken through the twelve-year downtrend obtained by joining the peak levels attained in 1994 and 1999. My reading of this chart is that US ten year bond yields are likely to move up to test the next major resistance at around 5.40% to 5.60%, as represented by the peaks in 2001 and the low of 1995. I stress this is a medium term expectation rather than a short term one."

IBagdad Uncertainty...

Iraq Diaries: Uncertainty...: "The Ministry of Defense requests that civilians do not comply with the orders of the army or police on nightly patrols unless they are accompanied by coalition forces working in that area.'

That's how messed up the country is at this point.

We switched to another channel, the 'Baghdad' channel (allied with Muhsin Abdul Hameed and his group) and they had the same news item, but instead of the general 'coalition forces' they had 'American coalition forces'. We checked two other channels. Iraqiya (pro-Da'awa) didn't mention it and Forat (pro-SCIRI) also didn't have it on their news ticker.

We discussed it today as it was repeated on another channel.

'So what does it mean?' My cousin's wife asked as we sat gathered at lunch.

'It means if they come at night and want to raid the house, we don't have to let them in.' I answered.

'They're not exactly asking your permission,' E. pointed out. 'They break the door down and take people away- or have you forgotten?'

'Well according to the Ministry of Defense, we can shoot at them, right? It's trespassing-they can be considered burglars or abductors...' I replied.

The cousin shook his head, 'If your family is inside the house- you're not going to shoot at them. They come in groups, remember? They come armed and in large groups- shooting at them or resisting them would endanger people inside of the house.'

'Besides that, when they first attack, how can you be sure they DON'T have Americans with them?' E. asked.

We sat drinking tea, mulling over the possibilities. It confirmed what has been obvious to Iraqis since the beginning- the Iraqi security forces are actually militias allied to religious and political parties.

But i"

The Australian: Decade to satisfy China's demand for our uranium [April 01, 2006]

The Australian: Decade to satisfy China's demand for our uranium [April 01, 2006]: "AUSTRALIA is years away from being able to supply China with the 20,000 tonnes of uranium it is expected to import each year by 2015.

Resources Minister Ian Macfarlane, who will tomorrow brief Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in Perth on Australia's trade, said it was unlikely there would be a new uranium mine in Australia before the end of this decade.
Officials from both countries were working last night on the final details of an agreement that would allow China to buy Australian uranium and explore for the energy material to feed its nuclear power industry.
Mr Wen and John Howard are expected to sign the agreement in Canberra next week.
'China is expected to be importing 20,000 tonnes of uranium within 10 years, which gives us a great opportunity to supply that demand if we can finalise an agreement,' Mr Macfarlane said yesterday. 'But turning the agreement into firm mines will take some time.'
Mr Macfarlane said he thought it unlikely that Australia would bring any new uranium mines into production before the end of the decade. He repeated his call for Labor governments to reject ALP national policy banning the development of new uranium mines.
Mr Wen, who arrives in Perth tonight, faces a hectic program in the western capital.
He will be briefed by Mr Macfarlane tomorrow before travelling south to Kwinana to inspect the commercialisation of Australia's biggest research and development project, Rio Tinto's $300million HISmelt facility. China has a 5 per cent stake in the development, which is designed to produce a direct feed stock from iron ore for use in steel mills.
Mr Wen will also visit a research facility at Curtin University, which is involved in developing LNG technology"

A Notable Quarter of Global Asset Inflation:

PrudentBear.com - The One-Stop Shop for the Bear Case: "I believe it’s worth detailing the first quarter’s broad based global equities market asset inflation. London’s FTSE100 gained 6.15%, Germany’s DAX 10.29%, France’s CAC40 10.72%, Spain’s IBEX 10.44%, the Swiss Market Index 5.79%, Italy’s MIB 7.40%, Portugal’s PSI 17.71%, the Irish Overall Index 9.53%, Iceland’s ICEX index 6.50%, Netherland’s Amsterdam Exchanges Index 7.30%, Belgium’s BEL20 10.2%, Luxembourg LuxX index 14.6%, Denmark’s OMX Copenhagen 20 0.4%, Finland’s Helsinki index 15.2%, Norway’s OBX index 18.1%, Sweden’s Stockholm 30 index 10.41%, and Austria’s Austrian Traded ATX 12.9%.

Greece’s major equities index jumped 12.5%, Turkey 7.9%, Cyprus 44.4%, Malta 30.7%, Bulgaria 5.4%, Poland 13.0%, Czech Republic 3.5%, Hungary 11.0%, Romania 13.9%, Ukraine 21.3%, Slovakia 0.9%, and Croatia 21.8%. On the downside, Slovenia declined 4.1%, Estonia slipped 0.4%, Latvia dropped 8.9%, and Lithuania fell 5.1%. The major equities index in South Africa jumped 11.43%, Tunisia 15.8%, Morocco 32.8%, Namibia 14.5%, Botswana 9.68%, Egypt 4.4% and Kenya 3.6%.

Some of the highflying Middle East markets came back to earth a little. The Kuwait Global index fell 12.24%, Qatar’s DSM index dropped 19.1%, Israel’s Tel Aviv 25 index declined 1.2%, Bahrain fell 3.6% and Jordan dropped 13.7%. The wild Saudi SE index actually ended the quarter up 2.08%, with a 52-week gain of 62%.

Asia remains strong. The Nikkei 225 rose 5.89%, with a 12-month rise of 46%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 6.24%, Ch"

Uranium Mining Stocks: SXR.TO Addendum (Update 4) + Uranium Warning #2

Uranium Mining Stocks: SXR.TO Addendum (Update 4) + Uranium Warning #2: "It looks like sxr Uranium One will indeed give the okay to the Honeymoon mine in June of this year, with production set to start 18 months later. The favorable uranium price coupled with the imminent Australia-China accord give more impetus for this uranium company to produce in Australia. Of course, selling the project is always an option, and I'm sure sxr Uranium will consider it. Either way, their main uranium production in South Africa is still on schedule and will debut in 2007"

Paladin

I sold mine friday for the same reason, although it is a great stock with some good prospects.

Uranium Mining Stocks: "Well, I sold some shares of my Paladin shares this morning to back up my ranting and raving. Managed to get it done at $4.40 Cdn. There will be opportunites to buy back the stock, but for me at least, it would have to dip below the 4 dollar mark before I give it consideration. Paladin remains one of my favorite uranium stocks, but I cannot justify to myself its current valuation."

Japanese Equities: Ready To Go Again?

BCA Research - Independent Investment Research Since 1949: "Japanese equities have regained strength and appear poised for another leg up.

Strong trading in recent weeks has driven the Topix back above 1700, a very important technical level that has capped all of the cyclical rallies since 1992. We think the market will ultimately punch decisively through this resistance, clearing the way for sizable new highs. The Japanese system is still awash with liquidity and the central bank is not ready to spoil the party until next year, at the earliest. The recovery in the economy is broadening out rapidly. Equity valuations remain reasonable, particularly when adjusted for ultra low discount rates. Finally, we continue to believe that Japanese stocks are a “mean reversion” story based on longer-term GDP trends, which imply substantially more upside. The risk is that most cyclical momentum measures remain overbought, but this is typically the case during a bull market. "

Handing victory to the extremists

Bears' Chat - Welcome: "The failure to differentiate between Hamas leader Khaled Meshal and al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, between Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and Jordanian extremist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is the failure to differentiate between those who seek an accommodation with the West and those who work for an unremitting and uncompromising clash. The solution is not simply to begin talking to political Islam - 'we don't want you to talk', a Hamas leader told us, 'we want you to listen' - but rather to begin the necessary process of questioning our own assumptions: that 'they' are 'all the same'. If we fail to begin this vital work now we will soon see Mecca 'burn'. And it won't stop there.

What is perhaps most surprising about what we have learned in our 'exercise of mutual listening' is not that our views are radical, but that they reinforce Western society's best instincts, including those of George W Bush. In a speech before the International Republican Institute last May, the US president laid out his vision for democracy in the Middle East.

'Today, much of our focus is on the broader Middle East, because I understand that 60 years of Western nations excusing and accommodating the lack of freedom in that region did nothing to make us safe,' he said. 'If the Middle East remains a place where freedom does not flourish, it will remain a place of stagnation and resentment and violence ready for export.

'The United States has adopted a new policy, a forward strategy of freedom in the Middle East; a strategy that recognizes the best way to defeat the ideology that uses terror as a weapon is to spread freedom and democracy.' "

Blasé Debtors Snub the Bank

PrudentBear.com - The One-Stop Shop for the Bear Case: "What does this embarrassing, xenophobic episode have to do with debtors snubbing the bank? Our perennial imbalances with oil exporters and others build up huge dollar holdings in foreign hands. Much of this is lent back to us so we can continue to 'function.' In January 2006 we ran an over $8B trade deficit with OPEC. In the last year for which Treasury International Capital data exists, we sold an additional $12B in US Government Debt to those allegedly suspect Middle East Folks. This was complemented by sales of $120B to UK, Channel Islands and Isle of Man buyers. Thus, we have no issue selling our future tax receipts. Borrowing suits us just fine, playing the role of debtor is apparently another matter altogether. We sit in false nationalist judgment of our creditors these days with blasé disregard for the possible ramifications and self congratulatory ignorance of our position.

No where is this more true or aggressively out of control than with China. The People's Republic and Hong Kong owned over $310B of US Government Securities at the end of January 2006. This fits nicely with the rise in China's Official Dollar Reserves to just under $820B, up over 30% across 2005. Cheap Chinese goods and massive lending have artificially supported US purchasing power- particularly for the earnings-poor bottom 80% of the US household income distribution. Waves of Chinese lending have supported low interest rates, cheap home mortgage rates and the deficit profligacy in Washington. What have we learned?

We just raised the Federal Debt ceiling for the fourth time in five years, $9 Trillion here we come. We passed a nearly $3 Trillion Federal Budget- for the record this equals 150% of China's 2005 GDP at present exchange rates.